Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations
- Thread starter jauk
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mangekyo
Trusted Member
Israel spent way more time and money on Hezbollah because they saw it as the real long-term threat. Lebanon is an open country. People travel, do business, study abroad, move money. That creates a lot of intelligence access points. Banks, borders, phones, visas, families, foreign contacts.
Hezbollah also has to coordinate with multiple countries. Including, Syria. It would not be surprising if a lot of information leaked or was sold. That part is speculation, but it fits how intelligence usually works.
kastor ville
Registered Member
Damn...the riots are picking up steam, the Bazzaris went on protest again. This could get ugly, fast
Not exactly... they are rather diminishing and some family I got there (Tehran and isfahan) told me it's getting quieter
For what we care..........
Falcon29
Elite Member
You forgot Shia's too. But it's not that easy. People aren't easily risking their entire family's reputation and potential death to feed Israeli enemy information.
That being said, popular support is crucial to success.
All these new technological methods were also deployed in Gaza. The biggest reason was taking a long hiatus from engaging Israel.
Hamas tunnels got bombed in 2014 while fighters were on their way to capture soldiers. Before that war on Gaza kicked off. Hamas went back to drawing board each time to find out how Israel identified these tunnel locations and ultimately scrapped offensive tunnel project. Israel also deployed trophy systems on tanks during this ground offensive.
In 2012 the Iron Dome was more readily deployed, making Hamas aware of their effectiveness.
In 2019 an Israeli espionage force was discovered in Gaza, and espionage infrastructure uncovered, intelligence information extracted, and espionage infrastructure ultimately destroyed. Around this time Hamas started planning for Toofan Al-Aqsa.
In 2021 Israel attempted a large scale destruction of the tunnel metro. Some crazy gibberish propaganda at time were saying Hezbollah is the one informing Hamas of impeding strike on their tunnel system which is nonsense. Hezbollah was the one compromised the entire time. Hamas knew what Israel was doing with the ground invasion stunt and subsequent large scale attack on Gaza public infrastructure/roads.
Israeli army and particularly Israeli Air Force are ever evolving and innovating thanks to US/NATO training/supply/research. It's not the same Air Force in 2006.
You need regular engagement if are Hezbollah. Hezbollah and Hamas don't have resources to simulate war exercises in real time. Hamas was able to adapt due to actual conflict engagement.
That's why an Egypt-Israel war today is going to be unpredictable we don't know what Egypt is preparing and training for. We know Israel will immediately move ground forces to occupy the Sinai. That's about it.
Falcon29
Elite Member
How Egypt will quickly move forces to the Sinai is the question. How their AD and AF will perform up against Israel? Nobody knows.
Sisi knows, he doesn't seem confident in Egypt initiating a war with Israel from his words. So that tells us enough. :/
Immortals
Elite Member
The problem is the currency fell again today, now reaching 150,000 Toman for $1
People cannot survive in such an environment. Iran’s populous is not North Korea or Cuba.
If the Bazaari’s continue to riot, then it’s big problems for government as entire economy grinds to a halt. See what happened with the Shah.
The only saving grace for Iran is there no opposition leader or individual to solidify the populous.
However, if this continues it’s possible that factions of the Republic will split from the establishment and form a counter government and ask for referendum. I am sure US is already trying to reach power players in Iran to convince them to switch sides.
Shags101
Trusted Member
Kyussis
Trusted Member
Keep your pants on! I've been hearing your kind of predictions all my life!
kastor ville
Registered Member
This crowd size is not a joke......this could be the tipping point. As much as I am a critic, I don't want to see the country descent into chaos. That's what the enemy wants....I hope we can come to a sort of resolution, where they reform the constitution and turn us into a real democracy...without any bloodshed and violence. If they just reform, they will give people hope. No assembly of experts, no velayateh faqeh....no spiritual leader....No IRGC in economy...etc
Man, they fked up this government with too many clerics and Islamic governance bs. We just need a regular democracy, majlis and different parties vying for power through the ballot box.
mangekyo
Trusted Member
Who is going to tell the people? People need at least one leader they trust to communicate with them. Even if IRI wants to reform, no one will listen. Its too late. Expect fragmentation
Immortals
Elite Member
IRGC isn’t going anywhere. They control up to 40% of the Iranian economy.
What is possible is the IRGC will reform itself as a positive player. Iran will enter a transition period like Egypt did after overthrowing the Islamic Brotherhood.
Either way it will require capitulation to the West. Iran will have to sign a non aggression pact with Israel and the U.S. and receive security guarantees from China and Russia that Iran cannot be attacked. Or something of the sorts.
Even if tommorrow the government reforms, without the sanctions coming off and foreign capital flowing back into Iran, economic conditions will remain bad.
Iran needs something north of 200B dollars to rebuild its oil and natural gas industry. Likely another 100B in mineral extraction and power plant construction.
This money will ONLY flow if Iran capitulates to the West and joins Abraham accords.
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