Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[jauk]

It appears Iran lacks a CM or BM (maybe outside of Sejill naval variant) that could destroy a mega tanker in one strike.

This should be added to the R&D agenda as it may be of importance in future naval warfare to have such a weapon.

No need to destroy the ship. Just disabling it is sufficient. Same with aircraft carriers--sinking them is not a useful exercise.

 

[jauk]

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[Tehrani021]

It appears Iran lacks a CM or BM (maybe outside of Sejill naval variant) that could destroy a mega tanker in one strike.

This should be added to the R&D agenda as it may be of importance in future naval warfare to have such a weapon.

Since when did the houthis have access to all of the latest CMs and BMs at Iran's disposal?

 

[jauk]

On the verge of Ramadan Ansarullah starts heavy waves of strike on US warships:

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[tsunset]

Since when did the houthis have access to all of the latest CMs and BMs at Iran's disposal?

So far we've seen they have access to the classic blue AshCMs, Shahed-136-like drones, and what seems to be Khalijefars AshBM, also some Ghadr based MRBMs, underwater drones

But nothing else interesting, but still decent armament for a militant group

 

[Immortals]

Since when did the houthis have access to all of the latest CMs and BMs at Iran's disposal?

Irrelevant. We have seen them use Fateh-110 based naval variant missiles. Those cannot sink or immobilize in a single hit unless hitting fuel/ammo.

The only other missile would be a Sejill-2 variant or Ghadr naval Variant that Houthi’s do not possess.

Thus my statement is correct, Iran does not have a BM or CM capable of immobilizing or destroying heavy ships wether they be destroyers or mega tankers in single strike mode.

China has built a specific missile for this purpose alone and tested it in the desert on mock aircraft carriers. that missile can actually have its warhead swapped for a nuclear one to be used against a carrier group

 

[tsunset]

Irrelevant. We have seen them use Fateh-110 based naval variant missiles. Those cannot sink or immobilize in a single hit unless hitting fuel/ammo.

The only other missile would be a Sejill-2 variant or Ghadr naval Variant that Houthi’s do not possess.

Thus my statement is correct, Iran does not have a BM or CM capable of immobilizing or destroying heavy ships wether they be destroyers or mega tankers in single strike mode.

China has built a specific missile for this purpose alone and tested it in the desert on mock aircraft carriers. that missile can actually have its warhead swapped for a nuclear one to be used against a carrier group

Thus my statement is correct, Iran does not have a BM or CM capable of immobilizing or destroying heavy ships wether they be destroyers or mega tankers in single strike mode.

Does comparing a western destroyer with a mega tanker make sense?

A lobbing hit on a US destroyer at its VLS cells (VLS cells which they have a ton of them on their destroyers/cruisers) aiming for a chain reaction or at its radar would very probably sink it, the latter immobilizing it, am i correct about this possible situation?

So far no Ansarallah projectile actually struck at a navy warship, for the moment

 

[Immortals]

Does comparing a western destroyer with a mega tanker make sense?

It does as a mega tanker is actually bigger than most destroyers. Look at the damage the US destroyer - Tanker collisions did to the US destroyer.

A lobbing hit on a US destroyer at its VLS cells (VLS cells which they have a ton of them on their destroyers/cruisers) aiming for a chain reaction or at its radar would very probably sink it, the latter immobilizing it, am i correct about this possible situation?

Very possible to immobilize if warhead manages to detonate ammo storage.

Any hit on a US ship would likely take it out of service due to abundance of caution for repairs unless it’s a major World War. But a US destroyer has a lot more defenses than a tanker who relies on escort ships to protect it. In war time I would imagine US naval ships would be moving in strike groups with dedicated THAAD cruisers. Peacetime operations ships can be solo or in pairs.

So far no Ansarallah projectile actually struck at a navy warship, for the moment

Not for a lack of trying. Going back to Obama days they have tested C-802’s against US destroyers/cruisers and they have no issue shooting them down. Hence why Iran needs a new CM threat. We have been using the same CM base design for roughly 25 years.

Wether any [serious] ASHBM strike attempt has been conducted is hard to say. I don’t see Iran wanting to escalate by potentially killing US sailors so I would imagine they would not attempt to seriously strike any us navy vessels.

But based on the kinetic impact we are seeing of Houthi AsHBMs they are not as a devastating as we initially believed.

 

[tsunset]

It does as a mega tanker is actually bigger than most destroyers. Look at the damage the US destroyer - Tanker collisions did to the US destroyer.



Very possible to immobilize if warhead manages to detonate ammo storage.

Any hit on a US ship would likely take it out of service due to abundance of caution for repairs unless it’s a major World War. But a US destroyer has a lot more defenses than a tanker who relies on escort ships to protect it. In war time I would imagine US naval ships would be moving in strike groups with dedicated THAAD cruisers. Peacetime operations ships can be solo or in pairs.




Not for a lack of trying. Going back to Obama days they have tested C-802’s against US destroyers/cruisers and they have no issue shooting them down. Hence why Iran needs a new CM threat. We have been using the same CM base design for roughly 25 years.

Wether any [serious] ASHBM strike attempt has been conducted is hard to say. I don’t see Iran wanting to escalate by potentially killing US sailors so I would imagine they would not attempt to seriously strike any us navy vessels.

But based on the kinetic impact we are seeing of Houthi AsHBMs they are not as a devastating as we initially believed.

Surely the US/UK has a habit to counter blue-series subsonic CMs, we need something like Onyx or BrahMos, supersonic/hcm very soon to pose a real challenge to US ships and that would be very effective used in swarms

But i still think that in a massive swarm of subsonic CMs situation, if the projectile hits the VLS compound, it is a 100% kill situation

 

[Immortals]

Surely the US/UK has a habit to counter blue-series subsonic CMs,

Houthi’s have two true ASHBM

Light warhead



Heavier warhead



The theory right now is the UK ship was hit with the latter. The ships that have been hit with the former suffered minor to moderate damage. Nothing existential and they could still sail on their own power.

we need something like Onyx or BrahMos, supersonic/hcm very soon to pose a real challenge to US ships and that would be very effective used in swarms

Those missiles are actually entering obsolete status with 2030’s set to be hypersonic CMs.

Brahmos-2 is in r&d with a 1500KM range and Mach 8 speed. At ~$6M per missile (assuming that’s true) it is quite economical for Hypersonic CM.



The problem with supersonic is the range tends to suffer from the amount of fuel consumption the CM engine consumes. So you need very efficient engines. This area is Iran’s weakest link in CMs and drones - lack of powerful micro scramjet engines.

Indeed nearly all of Iran’s drones are prop or turboprop. Very few microjet or scramjet engines powered drones.

I expect we will see an Iranian supersonic CM in next 2 years, but truly hypersonic CMs are the future of hitting enemy assets. It will be very hard to intercept hypersonic CMs, much more so than HGV BMs.

A glimpse into US war of the future

But i still think that in a massive swarm of subsonic CMs situation, if the projectile hits the VLS compound, it is a 100% kill situation

Issue with that is most CMs attempt to hit the waterline of the ship while some try to hit the mast or airburst above the stern.

It would be tough to for a CM to penetrate all the way to the VLS cells from entering the side. a few compartments to get thru. It’s easier for a BM as it’s a top down attack.

Either way a swarm attack will have much higher lethality and make C-802s more viable as the enemy exhausts their stock of ADs faster than they can reload or resupply.

The issue is in a hypothetical Iran vs US warfare. US navy will stay out of PG and more in Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden until the Iranian coastline has been cleared of the thousands of CM batteries.

Due to limited range, Iran’s only effective anti naval weapon will be AshBMs or drones at that point. Although theoretically you could convert Iran’s Kh-55 based CM family to target naval targets if you can provide up to the second targeting data via drone or Iranian spy satellite.

 

[Tehrani021]

Irrelevant. We have seen them use Fateh-110 based naval variant missiles. Those cannot sink or immobilize in a single hit unless hitting fuel/ammo.

The only other missile would be a Sejill-2 variant or Ghadr naval Variant that Houthi’s do not possess.

Thus my statement is correct, Iran does not have a BM or CM capable of immobilizing or destroying heavy ships wether they be destroyers or mega tankers in single strike mode.

China has built a specific missile for this purpose alone and tested it in the desert on mock aircraft carriers. that missile can actually have its warhead swapped for a nuclear one to be used against a carrier group

Well it is relevant because you are judging Iran's ability to sink tankers based on the houthis who DO NOT have all of the latest CMS and BMs that Iran has. There's no need for all this waffle to refute this.

 

[Tehrani021]

So far we've seen they have access to the classic blue AshCMs, Shahed-136-like drones, and what seems to be Khalijefars AshBM, also some Ghadr based MRBMs, underwater drones

But nothing else interesting, but still decent armament for a militant group

I'm sure they are interesting, but we can't judge Iran's ability to sin tankers based on the Houthis who don't have the same arsenal as Iran. Pretty basic and simple point I'm making.

 

[jauk]

I’m confused with this conversation. Ansarullah (please don’t use ‘Houthi’) has effectively blockaded the Red Sea. Sinking or not is irrelevant. This conversation is losing the forest for the trees.

 

[Immortals]

Well it is relevant because you are judging Iran's ability to sink tankers based on the houthis who DO NOT have all of the latest CMS and BMs that Iran has. There's no need for all this waffle to refute this.

It’s called physics. The determinate factor to sink a ship is primarily based on KE energy released upon impact which is speed and warhead size.

There is no “latest” CM or BM in a naval variant unless you are talking about black projects. Which again is irrelevant, since my comment was based on Iran’s current arsenal.

The most powerful missile in Iran’s possession for targeting warships would be the naval variant of Sejill-2. All Fateh family missiles in naval variant form (Hormuz, Persian Gulf, etc) do not carry large enough warheads. Thus they would need assistance by igniting the fuel/ammo storages on board.

For example, the 2 Neptune cruise missiles that sunk the Russia Black Fleet destroyer with their 150lb warheads each did not kinetically destroy the ship. They happened to start a fire near the ammo storage which was unable to be suppressed and caused the chain reaction @tsunset has talked about resulting in a large ammo cook off explosion that obliterated a hole in the hull.

Thus its mighty difficult to sink/fully immobilize a destroyer/cruiser without either

A) a very large warhead or hypersonic energy release

B) causing a chain reaction of fuel or ammo


The Houthi’s attack on mega tankers further reinforces this point. Let me know if this is still difficult for you to understand.

 

[Immortals]

I’m confused with this conversation. Ansarullah (please don’t use ‘Houthi’) has effectively blockaded the Red Sea. Sinking or not is irrelevant. This conversation is losing the forest for the trees.

They have not “blockaded” anything. Harassed sure, but blockade? No absolutely not.