India, backstabs IR, what a great friend!
Iran has to look at whom it chooses to befriend over others. Considering China imports most of Iran’s oil, they would be better off finding a way to protect its potential to export petrochemicals as well as ensure access to global commodities with commercial incentives to companies and countries. Or at the very least have a way to filter Indians and allow them only in a small area, away from anything remotely sensitive.
The danger of Iran’s institutions being fully penetrated also means Iran would be wise to minimize foreigners, of all kinds, being in the country. Indian “visitors”, especially non-religious pilgrims, carry higher risks, as previous cases have shown in Iran and in neighboring countries. For the sake of minimizing loose ends Iran would be better off also minimizing armed proxies on its borders with countries it has renewed good relations, as these proxies can be co-opted by others and turned against the IRI nearly just as easily.
The China brokered balance between Saudi and Iran seems to be paying off with the Saudis dissuading Trump to strike. The Iranians should build on this on work to build up relations with the Turks of Türkiye and Central Asia, as well as Pakistan (
possibly via Afghanistan; a global pariah anyway, but could be a better basis to rebuild relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan as a good secondary outcome), on a commercial basis, barter trade. Make it in all their interest to not allow any element to use or even transit their territories against Iran. At the same time, this increased non-petrochemical commercial trade is the way to balance their economy and fix their currency crisis.
Furthermore, this maybe a good time for Iran to offer Chabahar and possibly one of the smaller islands in the strait of Hormuz as possibly “joint training space” with the PLAN.
India has for a long time had proven itself time and time again a fair weather friend of Iran, while a Pakistani minister went out on a limb and cursed out the Iranian pretender to the throne; calling him an “imperial whore”.
Pakistan's defence minister later doubled down on the comments, accusing the former shah's son of supporting a 'genocidal maniac'
www.middleeasteye.net
But most of all Iran will have to cutoff any avenues for its top and mid level military officers from being wooed by foreign nations opposed or even apathetic to the regime. The other major vulnerability working with Indian companies is greater cyber vulnerability, opening backdoor for others to take out communication; command and control networks from governmental/military as well as public services and commercial communication networks. Drone swarms are another threat, especially from concealed launch points, close to military installations, as seen in the mass drone swarm attacks deep in Russia. Iran will also have to defend its defenses. Defend its jammers and other means of preventing foreign attacks.
China as a rapidly developing nation could offer alternative opportunities for foreign travel and commercial prospects to minimize the risk of defections amongst the defense forces and police forces. With India, the risk of Iranian military officers being turned can’t be ruled out.
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asiatimes.com
