Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

kastor ville said:
,Maybe, maybe..... But I think it was called off because the protests were put down. So the calculus must have been that if US attacks Iran, it would fire missiles at Israel and didn't want that damage for nothing..... Since the regime did not crumble.
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Possibly, but I feel Israel only has one main shot at getting the U.S to attack Iran and it doesn't want to waste that on a useless performative attack, which is what trump may have considered

Trump doesn't want to get into wars

He is a narcissist and just wants to feel like a big man, and get easy victories and pats on the back

After Trump and the way things have changed for the Zionists it would be increasingly difficult for them to instigate a attack, and they are desperate to hit Iran before Iran rebuilds and prepares
 
Emirzad said:
Rumor has it that Rohani-Zarif tag team are in house arrests or in jail. They weaponized the currency fall last time they were in power. Will be interesting to see who is doing it now. Khamenei backed Pezeshkian's shit show government earned 112 billion USD just in oil revenues in 2025. Where is the money ?

Simple. IRGC is part of it or more like initiator of it. Revenues got siphoned off. 112 Billion USD in export revenue got diverted to IRGC led front companies and offshore accounts instead of sending that hard currency back to the Central Bank, They keep it outside the country to fund their "war chest" and run a parallel economy where revenues never reach central bank yet imports are paid from the very same bank to cause an artificial deficit. Mullahs never got the hint of what IRGC did right under their noses. IRGC, Larijani + Mokhber factions, current government all seem to have led this coordinated coup which they knew ISrael and US will try to capitalise so it will provide them the oppurtunity to grab the power under pretext of war against superpower. Is there otherwise anyother explanation to this that a country earning ~120 Billion USD just from oil export is suddenly facing inflation ? Remember IRGC led companies run 1000+ tanker fleet that Mullahs cant control. This is Russian style war economy model where the forces themselves can fund an elongated war without concerning with government. This is why I say that Iran is heading towards military run technocracy run on petro economy. IRGC started this probably somewhere under Soleimani times but they are using it now. Ideally for them, war will start so they can finish the coup.

Why are they doing it ? different people have different theories. Iranian political commentators thinks IRGC is hardcore nationalist group dedicated to gaurd the nation, they are part of Iranian deep state of power factions, bureaucrats, intelligence community, scientists, thinkers, business tycoons .... all of them want Mullahs gone because they might see Islamism as un-necessary or themselves as better qualified for running the nation. Ali Shabani of Amwaj thinks that IRGC's grievance started with Khamenei's resistance towards nukes and probably the fact that Soleimani crafted resistance empire from Yemen to Lebanon is lost all because Khamenei could not nuke up the nation despite all the tools available to him at the right time.
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Can u explain where u get the $120 billion figure from?

China imports roughly 1.5 million barrels a day, at $60 per barrell thats $32.5 per year. Some of that is kept as yuan in China, some is paid via infrastructure projects from china, some is acquired by irgc in hard reserves which they spend as fit etc.

But not sure how u get $120 and that china gets 5.5 million bpd?
 
His bullshit makes no sense. It does look like he wants Iran to let its guard down while the carrier group is on the move. Once the ships are positioned in areas near Iran, he will come up with another excuse.

If he is genuine about not attacking Iran, he needs to call off all of the assets he is deploying to the region.

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Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ said:
Can't believe we're still in January feels like the longest year already!
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Right. But all of us should brace for the longest 3 years plus 4-5 days ahead; President Trump is a different kind of a beast in his second term. He really, really wants to be remembered among the Greatest Presidents of America, Nobel Prize or not.
 
Persian Gulf said:
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What is concerning is that most rioters arrested were already pardoned back in 2022 with WLF LGBTQ+ riots, they have a long history of rioting and killing people in every riots

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If Iran pardons them again, they will 100% do it again in the future, life imprisonment or 40 years would be the best sentences
 
WSJ Op-Ed calling for partition of Iran:

A Fractured Iran Might Not Be So Bad​

Its borders are artificial, and a breakup would frustrate the interests of Russia, China and others.​

Meanwhile, nobody outside Iran is providing arms to the populace as the regime mows them down mercilessly. For the sake of regional and world peace, the best option may be to help secession happen and thereby take a downsized Iran, freed from a murderous regime, off the geopolitical chessboard entirely.

Author: Melik Kaylan
 
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