Shamkhani said today we will strike Tel Aviv
so IRI learned soft targets are most effective and no point wasting missiles with 100-500m CEP on huge and sparse military bases
You won’t win a war by terrorizing cities. Especially Israel that has a bomb shelter on every street. Hitler didn’t the war with V2 rockets that way and Saddam didn’t win the war with Iran using Scuds that way.
We were fed lies by this government that with a few hundred missiles they could eliminate the airbases of the opponent rendering their airforce advantage null and void. The moto “you may take off but you will find nothing to land too” Many here believed that and even I believed suppression of air sorties could occur.
Now we are giving up on that strategy?
If Iran’s cheap missiles were not good enough to breach the shield then they should have been upgraded to the point they were. If the satellite tracking was the problem than an ASAT missile should have been made that could take down that capability or dilute it during existential war.
What the hell were these guys doing for past 25 years? It looks like pocketing much of the defense budget for themselves or blowing it on contracts with friends within the corrupt system. Because the results were inexcusable. Air Defense branch performed worse than Iraq 2003. The missile defense couldn’t keep a high firing rate for long. So where did the money go? where did 25B USD go a year?
Something doesn’t add up. The math is not mathing.
Also keep in mind in missile/rocketry typically 10-40% missiles can fail a launch or en route. And I have a video someone filmed that shows during 12 day war a missile failing shortly after launch.
So you have:
a % that fail on launch/reach the target
a % that get intercepted
a % that miss (>500m CEP)
a % that hit their target within the CEP (<50m)
So you have to ask yourself how many long range missiles does Iran have? If it’s 10,000 then if all 10,000 were fired, how many would actually hit their target? 500? 1000? 2000?
If inventory is 5,000 missiles then there is no point in even doing the calculation because that’s not enough to win a war of attrition.