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We are on a forum where most members believe trump used to be pro-iri, then the Jews got to trump. Not that trump was an imperialist since the 1970s and pro invasion of Iran 26 years ago.I get it but kind of bit overboard just saying your better than that
The real issue is, even if US does not attack, Israel will (to kick start the war) and US will have to follow.True. Epstein files are released to make trump order attack. If he doesn't more files will be released
it all depends if trump really truly believes he can win with no repercussions to his ego if one ship sinks one base gets destroyed with massive American casualties he loses he will have to go to war attempt to invade Iran and than we have a messier situation than Iraq and Afghanistan times 10.Its slow thriller movie where you dont know when the main event will happen but it will happen thats all you know.
Brother...there is zero chance of a preemptive strike...please don't keep bringing it up.I still think Iran should do a Preemptive Strike at the very last moment when Iranian commanders are certain the American strikes have been launched and about to hit Iran within less than an hour or less than 30 minutes.
This isn't a Turn-Based RPG battle where you wait for the enemy to land a hit on you before you can attack them. We are dealing with a Superpower's military so logically we want to be able to land a first hit on them with maximum force so we can take out as much of their assets as possible before they regroup and double down for a long war Iran can win via attrition and possible Chinese/Russian intervention.
China who depends on Middle Eastern oil won't allow Hormuz Strait to be shut down indefinitely and will definitely send more warships to the region to goad US into attacking them first so they have casus belli to declare war on USA to coincide with their imminent plans to liberate Taiwan.
Would it not be better to just shoot at Israel and the GCC oil rather than engaging with US forces ? The same results of regional pain will be achieved and you know and I know who has pushed the US to fight Iran since 1980 and sabotaged every rapprochement.Trump is overestimating Iran's regional and internal weakness and believes that pressure and military threats will cause Tehran to yield.
Some in Tehran prefer a limited military confrontation (not a symbolic one) in order to "correct" Trump's assessment and push him to negotiate more realistically. The idea being that Iran takes massive hits but also strikes back in an unprecedented way throughout the region and against US troops with mass casualties, in order to dispel Trump's belief that a war with Iran can resemble the military operation in Venezuela.
It will be long, bloody, and costly, rather than the quick, bloodless, and glorious assessment the Iranians believe Trump has.
This, in turn, will lead to Trump opting for more realistic demands and parameters, the calculation goes. Whether Tehran really can either strike that hard or absorb the US's massive strikes is unclear to me.
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good summary of the IRI's thinking
China is likely providing high resolution real time ISR to Iran
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