Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Shags101]

Israel: US military action on Iran unlikely this week | The Jerusalem Post

The prevailing assessment in Israel did not point to immediate US action, with officials speaking in terms of weeks rather than days.

www.jpost.com

Honestly feel like they are trying to mess with Iran again these negotiations now saying attack is being postponed in weeks not days I feel they’re going to go to the negotiating table and as soon as they finish the first meeting will say Iran wasn’t serious and will have bombed not even 30 seconds after it was done

 

[Psyko70]

Its slow thriller movie where you dont know when the main event will happen but it will happen thats all you know.

 

[Shags101]

Its slow thriller movie where you dont know when the main event will happen but it will happen thats all you know.

it all depends if trump really truly believes he can win with no repercussions to his ego if one ship sinks one base gets destroyed with massive American casualties he loses he will have to go to war attempt to invade Iran and than we have a messier situation than Iraq and Afghanistan times 10.
Trump wants the easy win to make him look invincible if it doesn’t become easy he will just do what Israel did to Gaza and attempt to bomb all of Iran to submission….i don’t think most Iranians who weren’t to thrilled about the current situation will be to crazy about that

 

[Persian Gulf]

Pompeo boasts the US 'helped' the rioters in Iran in a lot of hidden ways

 

[Mero]

Hitler before every nation Nazi Germany invaded needed to have the Nazi government in Berlin release an Epstein file on Hitler's supposed homosexual relations. Then when Hitler invaded Poland, instead of blaming hitler, you see hitler as the victim of blackmail from the Epstein files. Despite hitler saying hitler wanted to invade Poland in 1979/80, I mean trump saying trump wanted to invade Iran in 1979/80 and take the oil. You see Hitler was the real victim and it could not be known Hitler was a Lindsey graham homosexual. On the day the Epstein files were released, hitler invaded another nation as the allies stood in amazement of how hitler was the victim of the Epstein files, ignoring that by now hitler owns half of Europe. Those Epstein files must be really bad on hitler, as hitler takes Paris, trump/hitler is the real victim of blackmail. Poor Hitler.

 

[kastor ville]

I still think Iran should do a Preemptive Strike at the very last moment when Iranian commanders are certain the American strikes have been launched and about to hit Iran within less than an hour or less than 30 minutes.

This isn't a Turn-Based RPG battle where you wait for the enemy to land a hit on you before you can attack them. We are dealing with a Superpower's military so logically we want to be able to land a first hit on them with maximum force so we can take out as much of their assets as possible before they regroup and double down for a long war Iran can win via attrition and possible Chinese/Russian intervention.

China who depends on Middle Eastern oil won't allow Hormuz Strait to be shut down indefinitely and will definitely send more warships to the region to goad US into attacking them first so they have casus belli to declare war on USA to coincide with their imminent plans to liberate Taiwan.

Brother...there is zero chance of a preemptive strike...please don't keep bringing it up.
Iran doesn't operate like that....the war will be pretty chaotic without the preemption. This war will bring down the US economy and his joke of a presidency....the entire global economy is teethering....all it needs is a push. When gas hits 5 dollars a gallon, you'll see the media start to question his fitness for office...etc

 

[Persian Gulf]

Trump is overestimating Iran's regional and internal weakness and believes that pressure and military threats will cause Tehran to yield.

Some in Tehran prefer a limited military confrontation (not a symbolic one) in order to "correct" Trump's assessment and push him to negotiate more realistically. The idea being that Iran takes massive hits but also strikes back in an unprecedented way throughout the region and against US troops with mass casualties, in order to dispel Trump's belief that a war with Iran can resemble the military operation in Venezuela.

It will be long, bloody, and costly, rather than the quick, bloodless, and glorious assessment the Iranians believe Trump has.

This, in turn, will lead to Trump opting for more realistic demands and parameters, the calculation goes. Whether Tehran really can either strike that hard or absorb the US's massive strikes is unclear to me.

--

good summary of the IRI's thinking

 

[Persian Gulf]

China is likely providing high resolution real time ISR to Iran

 

[kastor ville]

The attack isn't apparent....as of now, he wants to see if the Iranians blink. I think this over display of force is looking more like a bluff. In any case if he does attack...it's a mutually assured destruction. Iran will be destroyed, so will the world economy, the gulfies production fields, and Trump's own presidency. Only a moron will take this option....but belive it or not, at this point of the econmic suffocation, Iran has the least to lose. As I mentioned before, for Iran death can come slowly or they can adopt the crazy man tactic...knowing if they're going down they will take a lot of people with them.

 

[Watandar]

Trump is overestimating Iran's regional and internal weakness and believes that pressure and military threats will cause Tehran to yield.

Some in Tehran prefer a limited military confrontation (not a symbolic one) in order to "correct" Trump's assessment and push him to negotiate more realistically. The idea being that Iran takes massive hits but also strikes back in an unprecedented way throughout the region and against US troops with mass casualties, in order to dispel Trump's belief that a war with Iran can resemble the military operation in Venezuela.

It will be long, bloody, and costly, rather than the quick, bloodless, and glorious assessment the Iranians believe Trump has.

This, in turn, will lead to Trump opting for more realistic demands and parameters, the calculation goes. Whether Tehran really can either strike that hard or absorb the US's massive strikes is unclear to me.

--

good summary of the IRI's thinking

Would it not be better to just shoot at Israel and the GCC oil rather than engaging with US forces ? The same results of regional pain will be achieved and you know and I know who has pushed the US to fight Iran since 1980 and sabotaged every rapprochement.

 

[Shags101]

China is likely providing high resolution real time ISR to Iran

Well there was report a news report in the telegraph where it stated china gave warning to Iran that Israel was planning to attack in the last war but Iranians didn’t deem it true so if they did give intelligence on Israeli and American movements wouldn’t be new but this time around they will actually heed chinas warnings.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Would it not be better to just shoot at Israel and the GCC oil rather than engaging with US forces ? The same results of regional pain will be achieved and you know and I know behind the scenes who has pushed the US to fight Iran since 1980 and sabotaged every rapprochement.

US destroyers should be the first target as they provide movable offensive and defensive capability

then the US bases

and then once the US' ability to attack and defend is depleted, and Trump still wants to continue, more drastic measures can be considered

Hezbollah could attack ships in the Med, Houthis could disrupt the Gulf of Aden again, and Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz

if this happens simultaneously, the shock to the global economy would be pretty significant and Trump would come under big pressure to end the war

 

[Watandar]

US destroyers should be the first target as they provide movable offensive and defensive capability

then the US bases

The best Iran can do is shoot at US bases and hit something there. Iran may be able to damage or destroy one ship of the US Navy , it cannot do anything against the rest, I am sorry.

and then once the US' ability to attack and defend is depleted, and Trump still wants to continue, more drastic measures can be considered

US ability to attack and defend is not dependent on the few ships currently in the Gulf. The only real constraint here is Mr Trump does not want to be trapped in another forever neocon war.

Hezbollah could attack ships in the Med, Houthis could disrupt the Gulf of Aden again, and Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz

Hezbollah is finished. Houthis may disrupt traffic a bit but nothing beyond what they did last time. Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

if this happens simultaneously, the shock to the global economy would be pretty significant and Trump would come under big pressure to end the war

The shock to global economy will only come from hitting the huge investment of American Jews in Israel, like the Intel factories and especially the oil infrastructure of the GCC. That Iran has the ability to do with its capable missiles arsenal. Rest of what you are thinking are fantasies.

I say this as a well wisher of Iran.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Why are they so easily deceived?
What happened after signing the JCPOA? Why do they forget what happened last June because they fell for false negotiations?
Some conservatives in the US lament that Iran is too weak and foolish to stop the war.
Among MAGA supporters, there's growing confusion that Iran is too spineless, forcing them to take down their anti war signs.
Now conservatives believe Iran is playing its hand too poorly, leaving no room for negotiation—making invasion the only option.

 

[Shags101]

The best Iran can do is shoot at US bases and hit something there. Iran may be able to damage or destroy one ship of the US Navy , it cannot do anything against the rest, I am sorry.

US ability to attack and defend is not dependent on the few ships currently in the Gulf. The only real constraint here is Mr Trump does not want to be trapped in another forever neocon war.

Hezbollah is finished. Houthis may disrupt traffic a bit but nothing beyond what they did last time. Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

The shock to global economy will only come from hitting the huge investment of American Jews in Israel, like the Intel factories and especially the oil infrastructure of the GCC. That Iran has the ability to do with its capable missiles arsenal. Rest of what you are thinking are fantasies.

I say this as a well wisher of Iran.

Honestly it really depends how much Iran can fire off in consecutive waves if it can be built my man it can be destroyed by man.

Cole was nearly destroyed by improvised explosives

Stark was nearly destroyed by iexocet missiles(they weren’t expecting it but shows you these boats can be damaged and taken out of action)

The Israeli corvette that was put out of action in 2006(let’s assume in 20 years Iran has been able to upgrade these missiles)

Houthis have shown limited capability but have shown at least in theory that Iran has the ability to destroy or damage ships yes merchant ships aren’t in the same class as warships but shows you that Iran which is far more capable could do what Houthis couldn’t do with limited firepower compare to iran.