ToddE
Trusted Member
I hope strategic planners in Iran won't touch with a mile long pole....may god have mercy on Iran if they do.
What you or anybody hopes here or not means Jack.
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I hope strategic planners in Iran won't touch with a mile long pole....may god have mercy on Iran if they do.
I agree on most of this. There is a Larijani coup happening for a long time now. But it's not IRI-Russia-China vs U.S. First lets establish common ground on one thing, do you agree that its the deep state that runs U.S policy and not Trump? Assuming you agree let's continue to my point. Trumps mission assigned to him by the deep state is;Entire tension with Trump seems to be a strong trap by IRI-Russia-China to mess USD up. Otherwise IRI can just close its shop for next 3 years and wait out Trump's tenure like many others are doing. Why are they posturing otherwise (thrice the mil budget, more bases, more missiles, IAEA kicked out, ~100 Billion USD RMB-export, IRGC induced protests, 5+ MBPD)? can someone explain this. This is the regime that has cooperated with US some dozen times before, even in recent eyars. Larijani is talking with Israel so Jewish factor is less of a concern right now, the real aim is USD the currency. I asked here before, even with war IRGC's 1000 ship strong fleet earned ~115 Billion USD worth export revenue against probably half the import (massive trade surplus, 0% foreign debt), why did they siphoned off the money from Central bank in Tehran to cause deficit and protests? Nobody answered that because people get lost in theatrics of media. The goal was two pronged, weakening Ayatollah grip over IRI for future coup, that was internal, even reliable journalists are now agreeing that IRI is now affectively being run by Larijani, Qalibaf, IRGC etc, so the internal goal is achieved. More importantly, lure in knee-jerk reactionary Trump in for "regime change" accolade he wanted so bad. He answered the call and now is trapped in between starting a war that will lead to USD destruction or leave with nothing. Third option is meaningless military exchange agreed upon by both parties which is most likely.
I agree on most of this. There is a Larijani coup happening for a long time now. But it's not IRI-Russia-China vs U.S. First lets establish common ground on one thing, do you agree that its the deep state that runs U.S policy and not Trump? Assuming you agree let's continue to my point. Trumps mission assigned to him by the deep state is;
1. Create civil unrest in America through ICE and his MAGA cult with help from the tech industry.
2. Devalue the dollar and hedge US globally by removing everything that was propping up the dollar.
3. Decolonize the M.E
4. Transition America into a regional power with control over the western hemisphere.
We can discuss these points more in detail somewhere else if you like, but I don't want to make this post too long and it will become off topic.
The coup started already when IRI gave the green light to kill Soleimani. Then they got rid of Raisi, right? Hamas and Hezbollah? Larijani faction is shedding IRI of all proxies and hardliners. What do you think the 12 day war was about? It was IRI outsourcing the coup to Israel by having them get rid of Hajizadeh and the old IRGC gang.
Stop watching YT Channels which describe Iran as super power which can beat the US. I watch news and channels from both sides that makes me with a balanced view. I know Iran can fire lots of missiles but Iran is not a super power. Suppose If Iran can do what you are saying above, and we suppose it really do that. Then what's stopping US to bring its entire war machine and destroy every standing building in Tehran, all economic targets, all ports, airports and govt buildings etc. US can do that to any country on earth except Russia and China.
Whenever people say out of emotions that Iran can do this and that and what not. I ask them a very simple question that Iran spent billions of dollars on those 3 massive nuclear enrichment facilities / centrifuges / reactors deep underground. Iran endured decades of sanctions because of those, Iran said multiple times that it will unleash hell if anyone touches those facilities, Iran said they will close strait of hormuz, do this and that...... But Trump ordered strike, US B2 bombers flew from all the way US dropped massive ordinance over those facilities and destroyed decades of work & efforts in a blink of an eye. What did Iran do in retaliation?? a symbolic attack on Qatari base with advance warning with not a single american casuality! Why not thousands of missiles scenario happened as you are describing above?
So, its not like that what you are describing that missiles are placed all over Iraq and Iran and they can engage in combat in any given time. Its not practical. US would have 100s of satellites right now watching over the region. Don't include rag tag militias in Iraq as a "game changer". They merely have rockets and not fit into equation at all. US has military base in Iraq and we all saw entire Iraqi airspace was open to Israeli airforce during 12 day war. I doubt if Iraqi militias did anything substantial at all during 12 day war.
Having said all that, I think Iran has managed very well with its missile program so far. Given the fact it remained under sanctions all the time but still it can inflict costs over its enemies. But I don't like exaggerations. Whenever any side start exaggerating then I prefer reality over exaggerations. Iran missile program was advancing very rapidly that's why all this buildup is on behest of Israel.
I believe that is the terms China has set. FIC is going to invest heavily in the M.E and they need stability for that. This means all proxies have to go. But I am not optimistic of what Larijani-Irans role will be in the new world order. I believe PGCC will reap the greatest benefits through their wealth funds, Turkey second. The losers will be Israel who is getting asset stripped by UAE, and Iran who is effectively becoming a Chinese vassal state through economic dependenceno more Hezbollahs, Assads, PMFs, PIJs or Hamas exists in its way anymore.
The person I responded to stated that the U.S. would destroy Iran's air force and navy in that case. I answered that it doesn't matter whatsoever. America's response would be severe yes, but the fact remains that Iran can close the straits.
It's astonishing that you think that Iran can't close it for a long period of time,
This is what was agreed under the jcpoa trump broke........
Almost half of China’s oil imports pass through Hormuz. If Iran were to disrupt PGCC oil and gas flows and close the strait, it would not only be waging war on the U.S and the PGCC, but on China as well. Correct me if I am wrong.
Imagine how thrilling it'd be when war breaks out
I meant to say thrilling when those destroyers shoot down Tomahawks, since the US won't anticipate China would finally do something at all to protect its oil supply and investments in the Middle East.That is only juvenile silliness. War is a horrible thing, and thrilling only to those sitting far away in Malaysia, for example.
China’s deployment of advanced stealth destroyers near the Iranian coast is far from a routine drill. Rather, it stands as a direct challenge to the United States and its forces, which have been threatening war against Iran.
The vessel featured in the attached video is a Chinese Type 055 destroyer—specifically the CNS Nanchang (Hull 101) of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Classified as a large guided-missile destroyer, this class entered service in 2020 and represents one of China's largest and most modern warships.
The trilateral exercises between China, Russia, and Iran are set to take place in the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, and the Indian Ocean—regions that constitute the core of U.S. military deployment.
The message is both clear and logical:
The U.S. hints at war.
China and Russia respond on the ground.
Iran is no longer alone.
The presence of Chinese naval assets in a strait through which approximately 20% of the world's oil flows implies that any attack on Iran could escalate into a major international crisis.
This maneuver constitutes an open challenge to U.S. alliances in the region and serves as a clear signal that the era of unilateral military hegemony in the Gulf is approaching its end.
Iran can't take down anything worthwhile...Iran can do lots of pinpricks though and can also win the shouting match .Imagine how thrilling it'd be when war breaks out and Tomahawk missiles fired towards Iranian targets are shot down by Chinese SAMs from that destroyer.
If China doesn't want Iran to close Hormuz then it has to defend Iran. If Iran is left to get destroyed alone by US/IDF, then it is fair game for Iran to take out everyone else down with it. So if China doesn't want to defend, then they can't complain if Iran wants to close Hormuz, since Iran has the right to get back at Gulf countries who host US bases. Closing Hormuz is fair game if IRI is forced to fight USA and IDF/GCC all alone...
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