Türkiye and the Balkans | News & Discussion

[hyperman]

Is Israel inciting this conflict to stretch Turkey's resources? To divert its attention from Syria and compel her to redirect its focus towards the Balkans?

There are attempts being made to curtail Turkey's reach and influence across the region. Thats the only read I can make, and its not just the zionists, but the Greece for obvious reasons are involved, as well as the French and some Western EU states who would prefer a more docile and subservient/dependent Turkey that used to exist. Not saying all of them are collaborating here for this specific scheme but they have been active in some capacity elsewhere(Libya, Sudan, Syria, Caucasus, East Med etc).

This particular Bosnia matter, i believe is Israelis and also the people involved in the Trump administration.

The field is complex with the regional actors in many areas Turkey has good relations with EU states but their actions and alignment negatively affects Turkish interests and in other areas, Turkey has negative relations with some states, but historically have had converging interests on Bosnia.

Austria and Germany for example, the relationship with Turkey has been negative, but they are Supportive of Bosnians.

Hungary with Orban Turkey has had good relations with, but Orban supports the Serbian Separatists for whatever reason and Serbia.

UK is the only one where Turkish relations are positive and Bosnia aligns.

France is an enemy both to Turkey and to the Bosnians.

The Turkish position in Albania and Kosovo is a lot stronger than it is in Bosnia due to geography.

From the US perspective with the current administration, I'll give some insight recently Rod Blagojevich(former governor of Illinois) a serbian who mother's family is Bosnian serbs has been lobbying to Trump administration, getting paid by Dodik, to lift sanctions on Dodik, and they got it removed October 2025.

I'm not sure what the play here is for Turkey, due to Geographic limitations, there isn't a significant amount Turkey can do unilaterally, and as of right now, not sure if it can even deploy a significant amount even if Turkey was willing, b/c of other fronts. But I also don't want to abandon the Bosnians.

I think for as of right now, I think the play is German and British lobbying. Get the Germans to intervene and to put out a strong warning or rebuke of anyone interfering with the status quo, Germany being involved would put EU pressure on the Serbians, and get the Brits involved via lobbying the US and their own commitments. Bosnia has a lot of friends in the United Kingdom.

In the meantime in terms of tactical help, Unfortunately since the Bosnia file was transferred from NATO to the EU, Turkey's position has weakened but Turkey still has troops at the Mehmet Fatih Barracks in Bosnia as part of Operation Althea, we could increase the numbers there from the current 150 to something like 500, that would give political signals and reassurances. Maybe also get the UK to redeploy troops to Bosnia, which they withdrew from in 2020.

Any effective intervention would require the Croatians unfortunately or a collective Germany/EU/UK/Turkey based cooperation.

 

[Foinikas]

Austria and Germany for example, the relationship with Turkey has been negative, but they are Supportive of Bosnians.

They're more supportive of Croats,if you ask me. From the start they were very supportive of Slovenia and Croatia,I don't blame them of course. It's geography,a factor could be Catholicism(at least among the people),the Croats have a lot of love for Germany.

 

[Eşbah]

There are attempts being made to curtail Turkey's reach and influence across the region. Thats the only read I can make, and its not just the zionists, but the Greece for obvious reasons are involved, as well as the French and some Western EU states who would prefer a more docile and subservient/dependent Turkey that used to exist. Not saying all of them are collaborating here for this specific scheme but they have been active in some capacity elsewhere(Libya, Sudan, Syria, Caucasus, East Med etc).

This particular Bosnia matter, i believe is Israelis and also the people involved in the Trump administration.

The field is complex with the regional actors in many areas Turkey has good relations with EU states but their actions and alignment negatively affects Turkish interests and in other areas, Turkey has negative relations with some states, but historically have had converging interests on Bosnia.

Austria and Germany for example, the relationship with Turkey has been negative, but they are Supportive of Bosnians.

Hungary with Orban Turkey has had good relations with, but Orban supports the Serbian Separatists for whatever reason and Serbia.

UK is the only one where Turkish relations are positive and Bosnia aligns.

France is an enemy both to Turkey and to the Bosnians.

The Turkish position in Albania and Kosovo is a lot stronger than it is in Bosnia due to geography.

From the US perspective with the current administration, I'll give some insight recently Rod Blagojevich(former governor of Illinois) a serbian who mother's family is Bosnian serbs has been lobbying to Trump administration, getting paid by Dodik, to lift sanctions on Dodik, and they got it removed October 2025.

I'm not sure what the play here is for Turkey, due to Geographic limitations, there isn't a significant amount Turkey can do unilaterally, and as of right now, not sure if it can even deploy a significant amount even if Turkey was willing, b/c of other fronts. But I also don't want to abandon the Bosnians.

I think for as of right now, I think the play is German and British lobbying. Get the Germans to intervene and to put out a strong warning or rebuke of anyone interfering with the status quo, Germany being involved would put EU pressure on the Serbians, and get the Brits involved via lobbying the US and their own commitments. Bosnia has a lot of friends in the United Kingdom.

In the meantime in terms of tactical help, Unfortunately since the Bosnia file was transferred from NATO to the EU, Turkey's position has weakened but Turkey still has troops at the Mehmet Fatih Barracks in Bosnia as part of Operation Althea, we could increase the numbers there from the current 150 to something like 500, that would give political signals and reassurances. Maybe also get the UK to redeploy troops to Bosnia, which they withdrew from in 2020.

Any effective intervention would require the Croatians unfortunately or a collective Germany/EU/UK/Turkey based cooperation.

Turkey's best strategy at this moment would be to highlight the potential consequences this situation could have on the overall security of the EU, particularly in Eastern Europe. The unique threat arises from Bosnia being a special case where the interests of Russia, Serbia, Israel, and some Trump-affiliated groups are currently intersecting. Neither Western Europe nor the Northern EU countries are pleased about this. This is a point of leverage that the Turkish government should take advantage of.

Meanwhile Serbia:

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[hyperman]

Turkey's best strategy at this moment would be to highlight the potential consequences this situation could have on the overall security of the EU, particularly in Eastern Europe. The unique threat arises from Bosnia being a special case where the interests of Russia, Serbia, Israel, and some Trump-affiliated groups are currently intersecting. Neither Western Europe nor the Northern EU countries are pleased about this. This is a point of leverage that the Turkish government should take advantage of.

Meanwhile Serbia:

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THATS IS STRANGE

3 consecutive days? are they flying back Serbian ammunition back to Israel or delivering weaponry.

Something is definitely up, usually this sort of traffic you see before a war starts.

 

[CrniLabud]

Dodik and his political party are riding the “pay to play” wave, he paid 4 million $ to have meetings with the Trump administration, hoping to capitalize on the right wing administration ti create a case for secession. He is also engaging Israeli lobbyists in the US to get him to these meetings, prior to this, he went to Israel and met with Netanyahu. He hopes to get backing before he attempts at secession. Although the Bosnian court removed him from office, he still retains influence in his party the SNSD. However, the opposition in the RS entity does nit support secession or his policies, which is a good sign. Serbia recently purchased billions if $ worth of military equipment from Israel, so these cargo planes might be that. It is not a secret that Israel is reaching out to both serbs and croats, wondering why? Since there is no economic or security benefit Israel would obtain from Serbia, Croatia and BiH.

Bosnian Croats are also lobbying with hopes to change the electoral law in their favor, creating a defacto third entity, his vision of an electoral law is opposed by 6 decisions by the European Court on Human Rights, cases which the Bosniaks worked on due to inherent discrimination in the current electoral process. Despite this, Covic is attempting to push his vision, but it makes no sene, for any law to be implemented requires the support of all peoples, Bosniaks will veto it, and the high representative can’t (in theory) make changes to the constitution. So i don’t see where Covic hopes to land with his lobbying.

 

[Sinan]

THATS IS STRANGE

3 consecutive days? are they flying back Serbian ammunition back to Israel or delivering weaponry.

Something is definitely up, usually this sort of traffic you see before a war starts.

There are civil wars going on in Middle East region. Somalia, Yemen, Sudan.
UAE and Israel supports seperatists. There are reports that, Israel and UAE transfering Chinese weaponary to the region. Serbia is also involved in this plot.

Sudan • Tracing the mysterious combat drone supply chain in civil war - 08/12/2025 - Africa Intelligence

'Open source' images analysed by Africa Intelligence reveal the use of sophisticated weapons that have given RSF paramilitary forces a decisive advantage in recent months. Serbia appears to have - 12/8/2025

www.africaintelligence.com

 

[hyperman]

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[Foinikas]

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A "security vacuum"? Why would there be a vacuum if one part leaves and federation?

 

[hyperman]

A "security vacuum"? Why would there be a vacuum if one part leaves and federation?

Anyone who is breaking Dayton agreement is creating a vacuum. The federation is created out of Dayton, otherwise, there was no separate parts of Bosnia in Yugoslav times, they ethnically cleansed Bosnians to create that area, but they were allowed to keep that structure as part of a peace agreement.

Any attempt to mess with the Status quo will be met with how Serbia was met via NATO in the 90s.

 

[CrniLabud]

A "security vacuum"? Why would there be a vacuum if one part leaves and federation?

Because that would be a deceleration of war against BIH, BIH has a constitutional and legal obligation to defend itself, the deal that ended the war was that BIH will remain and continue to be a country. Stepping outside of this, is a call for war, simply put.

 

[MMM-E]

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's visit to Turkiye ... 12.02.2026

 

[Foinikas]

Because that would be a deceleration of war against BIH, BIH has a constitutional and legal obligation to defend itself, the deal that ended the war was that BIH will remain and continue to be a country. Stepping outside of this, is a call for war, simply put.

But what if they agree to split? It's not much of a benefit to the Croat-Bosniak Federation having RS,is it? Isn't the Croat-Bosniak part more developed?

 

[CrniLabud]

But what if they agree to split? It's not much of a benefit to the Croat-Bosniak Federation having RS,is it? Isn't the Croat-Bosniak part more developed?

That is possible, but very very unlikely. The Bosnian policy has been all of BiH, United without territorial changes, which was achieved. The internal political system is a mess, due to the poorly written Dayton accords, with little reform, the country can make a big step forward whilst balancing ethnic rights. Much has been done to integrate the country since 1997, and more is on the way with the slated EU reforms. This is one of the primary reasons Dodik is panicking, he wants out now, knowing long term the entity will lose some competencies.

Even though it is a frustration to deal with the Serbs who constantly threaten, deny history, and manipulate the public, but, long term we see BiH as a normal state, and that is what we fought for, and are still fighting for politically. Therefore, we are willing to take the issue head on and preserve.

The other is a moral reason, as Bosnians have a lot of property in that entity (land, houses, weekend homes, business investments, etc.) and we still have some Bosnians returning even today, more recently two families moved back to Srebrenica with their young children from Germany, and this is a regular occurrence we hear about regularly.

We simply reject the serb claims on that territory, and we are not ready to accept that to be outside of our country.

 

[Foinikas]

We simply reject the serb claims on that territory, and we are not ready to accept that to be outside of our country.

So that's one reason why you want RS to remain in the federation,I see

 

[Eşbah]

If the Serbs don't want to be a part of Bosnia, they can move a few kilometres east to become citizens of Serbia. They have their own country already.