Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Meengla]

Only if Iran actively targets them. Last time Iran made the mistake of thinking it could take out an airbase, it couldn't. Hopefully Iran has learnt that lesson and has a target list that has far more economic impact to Israel as you have indicated.

Right.
Launching 700 missiles / day is different from actually hitting important targets. But if you saw Patrick Henningsen said in the video above, he is saying not only Iran still has plenty of missiles but also some never used before and there are still more lethal missiles that Iran had not used in the 12 day war --saving for later.

Because the war has not started, and twice (if not three times) called off.
From military strategic perspective, there has to be a timeline to achieve the desired outcome.
In addition, the US Army Chief has said two days ago, this war cannot be won in a few hours, or even days. The likelihood US damage and causalities is very high.
Therefore, there is stagnation and considerable delay. Those who want the war may do something (including a false flag) to start the war.

Good post.
I don't rule out a False Flag at all. Not at all.

 

[wangdefa]

Recently Israel said they could withstand 700 missile strikes from Iran, but that is just a bluff.

All it takes is for Iran to destroy all desalination plants, power plants and other strategic nodes in Israel with BMs, and their ability to function as a country would severely be degraded for almost a year.

I think it should be a priority asset, such as military production materials.
If it's inevitable, let it be a tug-of-war.

 

[ShapurII]

Recently Israel said they could withstand 700 missile strikes from Iran, but that is just a bluff.

All it takes is for Iran to destroy all desalination plants, power plants and other strategic nodes in Israel with BMs, and their ability to function as a country would severely be degraded for almost a year.

Iran fired 550-600 missiles at Israel during the 12-day war, per both Iranian and Israeli sources.
If they could handle 600 missiles, they probably can handle 700 missiles as well.

 

[Meengla]

Me too....what a mess of a speech. The American president basically told the public...their biggest enemy are the democrats. What a small man, in charge of the most powerful country in thr world....Divider in chief.

Very insulting to the Democrats, who represent almost half of the Congress and almost half of the polled votes in America; and he insulted again and again in front of the entire world. A 'small man' indeed!

Trump's SOTU speech was basically about the Midterms. I was expecting a pro war speech like G. W. Bush used to do in 2002/early 2003 leading to the Iraq War but didn't see that last night.

 

[kastor ville]

best chance for inflicting human losses for att

That would be currently huge iranian victory and i doubt that ziojews would allow it as they have influence over american senate stronger thane orange man. on the other side regarding second part of your analysis show clear downsizes of that "victory", so best option and at the same time harshest and risky one for Iran is to go full nuclear no matter what then maybe those fanatical jews and their goyims would leave Iran alone or at least treat it is enemy on equal basis which would allow Iran proper breathing space.

This is the biggest issue...zionists. we won't get a deal as long as they have access in the WH. Kushner and Witkof are the negotiators....they were put in charge by AIPAC to make sure a deal doesn't happen. Every passing day is a chance for an incident.... If I was an iranian war planner, I would resign myself to conflict. Not because he will attack...but because there is a high degree of probability of an accidental exchange, or even false flag.
I hope the world sees this for what it is....a foolish, war of choice.

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[OldTwilight]

This is the biggest issue...zionists. we won't get a deal as long as they have access in the WH. Kushner and Witkof are the negotiators....they were put in charge by AIPAC to make sure a deal doesn't happen. Every passing day is a chance for an incident.... If I was an iranian war planner, I would resign myself to conflict. Not because he will attack...but because there is a high degree of probability of an accidental exchange, or even false flag.
I hope the world sees this for what it is....a foolish, war of choice.

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we should think about war ... the deal is not reachable with usa at this stage...

 

[Meengla]

This is the biggest issue...zionists. we won't get a deal as long as they have access in the WH. Kushner and Witkof are the negotiators....they were put in charge by AIPAC to make sure a deal doesn't happen.

Per Max Blumenthal, the Zionist control over Trump is so thorough that the White House's Chief of Staff, who was a Netanyahu election campaign organizer, has almost literally shut out VP J.D. Vance's dissenting voice about attacking Iran.

 

[Navid09]

That would be currently huge iranian victory and i doubt that ziojews would allow it as they have influence over american senate stronger thane orange man. on the other side regarding second part of your analysis show clear downsizes of that "victory", so best option and at the same time harshest and risky one for Iran is to go full nuclear no matter what then maybe those fanatical jews and their goyims would leave Iran alone or at least treat it is enemy on equal basis which would allow Iran proper breathing space.

Yes on the surface and temporary it would be a victory similar to how JCPOA was, but remember iran will give up things for this, their internal industry will suffer and reliance on china will drop.

And if US comes and withdraws again in few years time, then they may lose more than they gained.

Similarly you can argue that if Iran didn't sign the JCPOA in 2015, it would have been better off. Its industry would adapt earlier, it would shift to China alliance quicker, and not lose its nuclear capacity which would have also helped the water and electric issue and allow more exports of natural gas and electricity for important Foreign reserves.

Worst of all is when your country is in limbo mode. Your infrastructure gets developed for trade, then this gets restricted, industries set up for this suffer and new ones gets structured around internal production, and then again few years later when restrictions are lifted internals can't compete with cheaper imports and again they suffer and we are back to the same cycle.

Iran like any country has a threshold, basically when at existential threat and once it reaches that it starts being more aggressive like in 2019, with covert mine attacks on tankers, Aramco attack, US drone downing, the seizing of British tanker etc

Then china saved it with the oil deal and it's self sufficiency is slowly improving.

So fast forward to today, they won't opt for major war as Iran still has enough deterrance and they are just not ready enough or in a position and Iran won't allow them to.

So putting major war aside, USA/Zionists have 2 options I can think of that will actually work.

1) they can either continue degrading via sanctions, alongside internal destabilisation and limited strikes/wars periodically to be meaningful.

2) go back to a JCPOA 2.0 and pull out again in few years, similar to the damage done from first JCPOA and similar to the damage done to Gaddafi

In regards to option 1 Iran is reacting strongly to these wars/limited strikes so this option now becomes questionable, especially with the burnt Mossad/CIA assets inside Iran. As well as Iran pivoting more strongly towards China and Russia which will gradually help there economic issue.

This leaves us with option 2, and trumps behaviour supports this. Moving lots of assets in the region, whilst Israel has low stockpile of interceptors, Gerald ford being out of shape, Arabs being vulnerable and not wanting war, trumps past quick victories, no war with North Korea despite large build up 2018 etc all point to build up for negotiating leverage. And with such a build up, he can't walk away without getting a deal.

You could probably even argue Russia sold all these things to Iran now after the 12 day war as they know there is no more intention for war from Israel XD

 

[Navid09]

I have promised @Persian Gulf not to derail the thread anymore. So, after this, let's discuss the rest of it in the chill thread.

But seriously, which one of those countries are normal?
Cuba is a single-party authoritarian state running on communism when it's no longer a thing. It's suffering from political oppression, economic stagnation, incredible brain drain, energy cuts, etc. It hosts nuclear weapons aimed at mainland US. It is obviously a security threat to the US. Does this sound familiar?

Chavez increased state control over Venezuela's oil, but he remained in power until his death. Maduro was never as popular or charismatic as Chavez and was in power through consolidating political control and moving towards a one-party system. Again, similar to what Khamenei and the IRGC have been doing since the Green movement. He wasn't an immediate threat to the United States, but he cut the US profits from their oil industry and then did nothing to build a strong country to defend it. Does that sound familiar?

Young Ghaddafi was a true revolutionary figure and he didn't deserve his fate in my opinion. But as he got older, he continued to run his mouth for too long while signing humiliating agreements one after another and he did rule as a dictator over Libya. He was a comedic figure rather than a serious political leader. Any person that appears with dolled-up Slavic escorts on national TV is a joke.

In fact, that seems to be the common pattern for countries that befriend Russia and move to their camp. The difference between becoming a US lackey, like the late Shah, and a Soviet/Russia lackey, like the Ayatollah regime under the KGB-trained agent Khamenei, is that US lackeys at least get some level of progress and economic prosperity with a facade of democracy and normalcy. Russian lackeys get nothing but poverty, loudmouth leaders that want to rebel against the current world order, weird ideologies, and consolidation of power through corruption and tyranny.

The problem with these states is that they do not consider their population as anything other than inferior peasants who are entitled to no opinion or otherwise they will be labeled as traitors. There's not a shred of democracy in any of them. They're all corrupt and when foreign powers start to exert pressure on them, they sign the most humiliating agreements and trade their national security with a few more years in power (like the JCPOA). And they all will eventually have the same fate.

Exactly proved my point, so if Iran is like these countries, basically "not normal" like U phrase it and simply not under US influence, then regardless of deal or no deal, eventually USA will come for them.

So it's in their best interest not to trust them. And anything that is happening now is pure deception whether in the long run or short run.

 

[mulj]

Yes on the surface and temporary it would be a victory similar to how JCPOA was, but remember iran will give up things for this, their internal industry will suffer and reliance on china will drop.

And if US comes and withdraws again in few years time, then they may lose more than they gained.

Similarly you can argue that if Iran didn't sign the JCPOA in 2015, it would have been better off. Its industry would adapt earlier, it would shift to China alliance quicker, and not lose its nuclear capacity which would have also helped the water and electric issue and allow more exports of natural gas and electricity for important Foreign reserves.

Worst of all is when your country is in limbo mode. Your infrastructure gets developed for trade, then this gets restricted, industries set up for this suffer and new ones gets structured around internal production, and then again few years later when restrictions are lifted internals can't compete with cheaper imports and again they suffer and we are back to the same cycle.

Iran like any country has a threshold, basically when at existential threat and once it reaches that it starts being more aggressive like in 2019, with covert mine attacks on tankers, Aramco attack, US drone downing, the seizing of British tanker etc

Then china saved it with the oil deal and it's self sufficiency is slowly improving.

So fast forward to today, they won't opt for major war as Iran still has enough deterrance and they are just not ready enough or in a position and Iran won't allow them to.

So putting major war aside, USA/Zionists have 2 options I can think of that will actually work.

1) they can either continue degrading via sanctions, alongside internal destabilisation and limited strikes/wars periodically to be meaningful.

2) go back to a JCPOA 2.0 and pull out again in few years, similar to the damage done from first JCPOA and similar to the damage done to Gaddafi

In regards to option 1 Iran is reacting strongly to these wars/limited strikes so this option now becomes questionable, especially with the burnt Mossad/CIA assets inside Iran. As well as Iran pivoting more strongly towards China and Russia which will gradually help there economic issue.

This leaves us with option 2, and trumps behaviour supports this. Moving lots of assets in the region, whilst Israel has low stockpile of interceptors, Gerald ford being out of shape, Arabs being vulnerable and not wanting war, trumps past quick victories, no war with North Korea despite large build up 2018 etc all point to build up for negotiating leverage. And with such a build up, he can't walk away without getting a deal.

You could probably even argue Russia sold all these things to Iran now after the 12 day war as they know there is no more intention for war from Israel XD

By my conclusion you want to say that Iran's position is shaky but rather strong in overall terms and that another JCPOA would actually degrade country in overall terms with which I agree.
Iran now needs time to materialize and enhance this trade relationship with China and they would be more then fine but that is the actual catch as ziojews and their goyims will never be in tolerance with strong and fine Iran, so eventually by that logic war is inevitable in any point in future.

 

[ShapurII]

Exactly proved my point, so if Iran is like these countries, basically "not normal" like U phrase it and simply not under US influence, then regardless of deal or no deal, eventually USA will come for them.

So it's in their best interest not to trust them. And anything that is happening now is pure deception whether in the long run or short run.

Yes, but when did I disagree with that?

You probably don't know my history of activity here.
I have been against the JCPOA and negotiations with the West since day 1.

I have been saying for years that the only real option that the Iranian regime has for survival and success is to negotiate with its own people and resolve its own internal issues, instead of seeking the approval of the US and European governments.

 

[Navid09]

By my conclusion you want to say that Iran's position is shaky but rather strong in overall terms and that another JCPOA would actually degrade country in overall terms with which I agree.
Iran now needs time to materialize and enhance this trade relationship with China and they would be more then fine but that is the actual catch as ziojews and their goyims will never be in tolerance with strong and fine Iran, so eventually by that logic war is inevitable in any point in future.

As long as Iran can maintain credible deterrance then war won't come, arguably if it responded strongly against soleimani then these recent attacks against Iran may not have happened.

Probably best thing would be for Iran to go ahead with a new deal, but to treat it as temporary, get access to as much of its foreign reserves as it can, go on buying spree for important items such as passenger jets.

Immediately place high tariffs to limit imports and protect internal industries.

And use this time to quickly remove all subsidies as inflation can be easier controlled during this lifting of sanctions.

But problem with Iran is they are to beuracratic and slow to implement.

 

[Meengla]

ou probably don't know my history of activity here.
I have been against the JCPOA and negotiations with the West since day 1.

Strange coming from an Iranian: JCPOA happened despite staunch opposition by Israel and I believe Iranians were generally satisfied with JCPOA and would love to go back to the days of JCPOA / Barack Obama.
JCPOA was good but no one could see an American President would rubbish a UNSC / several key countries backed arrangement which it took years to happen, where an American President took considerable political risk to make it happen. No one foresaw what Trump would really do on many things--he is a phenomenon in himself.

Welcome to the Trump era of personal foreign policy; we saw the trailer in Trump I and now we all see the full feature over the next three years. Hold on to your seats, as you watch.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Some people seem to have an inaccurate understanding of history.
The JCPOA was established under a clear agreement between Obama and Israel. At that time, both Syria and Hezbollah were still intact, so Obama and Netanyahu agreed that attacking Iran was not feasible.
It was later revealed by officials within the Obama administration that Israel then staged a pretense of collaborating with Obama to bomb Iran, forcing Iran to submit and agree to the JCPOA.
The JCPOA was a trap designed from the outset to neutralize Iran, and the 2025 bombing was a pre-planned action all along.
The US never intended to lift restrictions after ten years.
The US and Israel are completely united, yet foolishly, the Iranian people are utterly deceived.
Netanyahu must be laughing uncontrollably at how Iran falls for this good cop/bad cop scam every single time.

 

[Meengla]

Some people seem to have an inaccurate understanding of history.
The JCPOA was established under a clear agreement between Obama and Israel. At that time, both Syria and Hezbollah were still intact, so Obama and Netanyahu agreed that attacking Iran was not feasible.
It was later revealed by officials within the Obama administration that Israel then staged a pretense of collaborating with Obama to bomb Iran, forcing Iran to submit and agree to the JCPOA.
The JCPOA was a trap designed from the outset to neutralize Iran, and the 2025 bombing was a pre-planned action all along.
The US never intended to lift restrictions after ten years.
The US and Israel are completely united, yet foolishly, the Iranian people are utterly deceived.
Netanyahu must be laughing uncontrollably at how Iran falls for this good cop/bad cop scam every single time.

No, friend, it doesn't work like that in America. The deep, long term thinking is rapidly vanishing as the political divides are too large. I don't want to say much about that except, in the context of this thread, JCPOA was an earnest Obama attempt to move away from the Middle East to 'pivot' to China. Similar is desired by the Trump admin but he is far too beholden to the Zionist lobby to resist them as of now.
But forget what I say: Ask the Iranian officials themselves; they would gladly take JCPOA again.