Sea Sultan Long-Range MPA | Updates & Discussion

[rafale]

what we actually need is View attachment 183101

also fatah 2 does NOT have a terminal speed of mach 10. I think JamD's calculations, put it somewhere around mach 2/3.

When has money stopped PAF from buying the most pertinent and urgent equipment?

Pakistan was a lot more in bad shape when we went for F-16s in 1980s, same again in 2000s when new BLK52s were purchased alongside MLUs for entire fleet......along with, your own quote, the largest single AMRAMM 120C5 order in history.

Same occurred again when Pakistan came out of slumber to build a decent AD layer and acquire SAAB 2000 ERIEYES all the way up to 9 in total.

World runs on financing and loans and credit. They can be shaped whichever way the buy/seller want. If Pakistan needs to buy something, it will get it. The reason of current slow procurement is not money, it is waiting and seeing what next circus the Indians (our eternal enemy) is going for and then procure accordingly.


India always had more money and access to more markets than Pakistan.......yet the last 10 years of combat against Pakistan has been pretty much embarrassing for them and not Pakistan.

So this lack of money and lack of this/that debate needs to rest.

 

[puttputt]

When has money stopped PAF from buying the most pertinent and urgent equipment?

Pakistan was a lot more in bad shape when we went for F-16s in 1980s, same again in 2000s when new BLK52s were purchased alongside MLUs for entire fleet......along with, your own quote, the largest single AMRAMM 120C5 order in history.

Same occurred again when Pakistan came out of slumber to build a decent AD layer and acquire SAAB 2000 ERIEYES all the way up to 9 in total.

World runs on financing and loans and credit. They can be shaped whichever way the buy/seller want. If Pakistan needs to buy something, it will get it. The reason of current slow procurement is not money, it is waiting and seeing what next circus the Indians (our eternal enemy) is going for and then procure accordingly.


India always had more money and access to more markets than Pakistan.......yet the last 10 years of combat against Pakistan has been pretty much embarrassing for them and not Pakistan.

So this lack of money and lack of this/that debate needs to rest.

Lack of funds prevented the PAF from procuring 55+ F-16C/D Block-52+ as originally planned, trimming its order to 18+18, and then to 18 — i.e., the only 18 we have at the moment.

Lack of funds is the reason why the PAF is likely stuck at 20 J-10CEs, not a single fighter more or less.

Yes, the Erieye fleet was eventually grown to around 9, but that was (1) after originally trimming a plan for 6 to 4 and then (2) capitalizing on Saab offering the Erieye for a much lower cost 20-25 years into the product's lifecycle in 2017.

And yes, Pakistan procures arms on credit/loans, but you still need some measure of fiscal capacity to support those payments each year. For example, payments for past programs are likely consuming the bulk of the PAF's fiscal capacity today, hence delaying new procurement.

 

[rafale]

Lack of funds prevented the PAF from procuring 55+ F-16C/D Block-52+ as originally planned, trimming its order to 18+18, and then to 18 — i.e., the only 18 we have at the moment.

Lack of funds is the reason why the PAF is likely stuck at 20 J-10CEs, not a single fighter more or less.

Yes, the Erieye fleet was eventually grown to around 9, but that was (1) after originally trimming a plan for 6 to 4 and then (2) capitalizing on Saab offering the Erieye for a much lower cost 20-25 years into the product's lifecycle in 2017.

And yes, Pakistan procures arms on credit/loans, but you still need some measure of fiscal capacity to support those payments each year. For example, payments for past programs are likely consuming the bulk of the PAF's fiscal capacity today, hence delaying new procurement.

Sure funds is an issue, but it is NOT that big of an issue......PAF still bought new systems even if with reduced quantity. Do you think more J-10CEs were needed when 20 were procured? Considering their unblemished record so far 20 were more than enough to fend off what IAF could put together.

Yes, we don't have Israel AirForce level of US dollar funding so we can't go on buying spree, but where the capability was needed to be built or exceeded vis a vis India, it was done successfully.

20 J-10CEs now and more can be ordered later. But you want to order when you know what your enemy has ordered so you can best make use of those resources.

Remember, PAF can concentrate 100% of its budget and equipment on eastern front, India can't. Meaning their purchases will always be many times bigger than ours.

 

[Ak01]

Sure funds is an issue, but it is NOT that big of an issue......PAF still bought new systems even if with reduced quantity. Do you think more J-10CEs were needed when 20 were procured? Considering their unblemished record so far 20 were more than enough to fend off what IAF could put together.

Yes, literally. The PAF has never bought aircraft types in such little qty's.

This extrapolation based off of one engagement is no use. It was a very limited, short engagement, nothing you can draw conclusions from.

So yes, while it may have been sufficient in that ONE engagement, nothing states it would have been sufficient the next day for example.

Yes, we don't have Israel AirForce level of US dollar funding so we can't go on buying spree, but where the capability was needed to be built or exceeded vis a vis India, it was done successfully.

20 J-10CEs now and more can be ordered later. But you want to order when you know what your enemy has ordered so you can best make use of those resources.

Erm, the Indians have been harping on about the rafale for the last 2 decades. You dont need a crystal ball to see what they're going to order.

The reality is the PAF was down on forex, the procurement budget was pretty heavily eaten into by the sam procurements, and there was no more funds for additional J-10C orders.

You dont just order as needed, its not a supermarket you walk into. The PAF will have plans for its fleet drawn out far prior to procurement, and its probably extremely likely that the PAF did originally order 36 units and had to cut the order, as it cut the JF17B3 order from 50 to 30.

This idea that loans = infinite procurement budget is just silly.

 

[Tank131]

Remember, PAF can concentrate 100% of its budget and equipment on eastern front, India can't. Meaning their purchases will always be many times bigger than ours.

I think if any lesson can be drawn of the last weeks events, it that Pakistan should be disabused of this notion that it only will fight a 1 front war. The next war will 100% be 2 maybe 3 front (India from west, Israel will definitely come from the east with long range air strikes/missiles, and even potentially though less likely US from the sea). The lesson Pakistan needs to draw here is that it needs to massively increase the numbers and quality of its missile stocks. Put out a longer range missile that covers all the middle east from any location in Pakistan. Approach the Iranian about the Shahed drone and start pumping Pakistani variant of it and your own loitering munitions en mass. Heck even the US is producing a variant of it probably stolen from Ukrainian battlefield. Every bicycle and machine shop in Pakistan should be put to work building these low cost drones/weapons in numbers. Pakistan should be able to at least match if not exceed the 300-500 such drones per day number and put up enough drones to launch 300+ per day for month or 2 when pressed.

It also needs to massively ramp up production of its ballistic missiles. Certain missiles should be modified to also include the cluster warheads Iran like on Khorramshahr, and install this on the likes of Shaheen 3/Ababeel amd even versions of this on Fatah 2 such systems woulc be very effective in allowing wide spread attacks on airfields and sam installation, where even damaging subsystems can take the whole unit out of the fight fo a short time.

Honestly would currently acquisitions of large ticket item on a temporary backburner for a year or so and focus your resources on this and dramatically upgrading your air defense capabilities (building large volumes of FAAZ based SAMs, acquiring SIPER in with in house production, buying HQ-19 for ABM/Long range AD). Also getting ATOM 35mm smart/air burst munitions from Turkey will help immensely in dealing with drones without exposing AD missile unites by allowing Pakistan to start large scale fielding of gun based CIWS like Gokdeniz/Korkut.

Yes this will cost large sums of money but if this war serves as a lesson for Pakistan, typical conventional items will be quickly overwhelmed by overwhelming force from combined assaults of Israel/India and possibly US. China will likely lend technical and material support but not likely physical intervention (which would be dumb for them). And these are cost effective force multipliers.

 

[White Privilege]

.......
The reality is the PAF was down on forex, the procurement budget was pretty heavily eaten into by the sam procurements, and there was no more funds for additional J-10C orders.

..........

This, right here, is the heart of the problem. F*#kin defensive mindset of PAF man, now tell me how many jets did these sams shoot down......These shiny missile systems will turn into useless white elephants very soon, mark my words, mainly because missile based air defenses are getting outdated in face of high speed missiles very quickly. A SAM does not have enough energy to chase after high speed high maneuvering targets as it rises against gravity. Focus is shifting worldwide to electronic kill or laser based defences. Only air to air missiles, launched from high altitude having the necessary energy can really chase the targets to destruction now.....

 

[Ak01]

This, right here, is the heart of the problem. F*#kin defensive mindset of PAF man, now tell me how many jets did these sams shoot down......

What i'd say here is, AD does have its utility in our theatre. Indian AD performed exceptionally well. Pak AD was not bad either, but there was alot left to be desired.

I dont necessarily agree with the procurement decisions made at the moment, i might even dare to say they reek of corruption and under the table bribes etc, but whatever. The issue isnt in the systems, rather, the fact that the systems we've been buying havent been well suited to our threats. This, i addressed heavily in an episode of the Quwa Podcast.

These shiny missile systems will turn into useless white elephants very soon, mark my words, mainly because missile based air defenses are getting outdated in face of high speed missiles very quickly.

Again, not necessarily true, AD has been performing exceptionally well in ukraine, israel, ME etc. But if you're expecting the Iron dome to take down hypersonics, yea, in that case your expectations, not procurement choices need to be adjusted.

A SAM does not have enough energy to chase after high speed high maneuvering targets as it rises against gravity.

Again, its really a case of 'it depends'.

We're seeing alot of long range sams go the way of a huge booster and a smaller dart. This gives you far superior energy in the terminal stages, Though, im sure this design is just easier to produce, and cheaper, hence its popularity! Very good design choice though IMO.

Focus is shifting worldwide to electronic kill or laser based defences. Only air to air missiles, launched from high altitude having the necessary energy can really chase the targets to destruction now.....

Lasers, or Softkill systems arent going to be able to destroy every type of target, nor will AAM's.

One aspect you forget about is the complication AD adds to adversary mission planning.

The IAF needs to factor every missile into its plans of attack. The pilots need to keep in mind that at any point, they could be fired upon etc. This in itself creates a barrier, but also, makes adversary missions more complex.

The wrong type of ad, such as FD2000s layered with HQ-9s?! (see where it feels a bit shady), alongside HQ-16FE's? The wrong type of AD like this, will probably be a detriment.

However, a proper layered defensive system, built off of modern, agile missiles will be a great asset to the PAF and the country. Unfortunately AD is a very long term purchase, so we've made our bed now, and must lay in it.

And to your first point, i agree, we must shift to an offensive defense type doctrine, but we can discuss that elsewhere. Happy to make my post more detailed and discuss in depth elsewhere too. Mods will throw a hissy fit and close this thread if i ramble on too long and others carry the discussion on too far here.

 

[hasssanali8998]

The wrong type of ad, such as FD2000s layered with HQ-9s?! (see where it feels a bit shady), alongside HQ-16FE's? The wrong type of AD like this, will probably be a detriment.

cna u explain why that is the wrong type , also what will suite us the best .

Happy to make my post more detailed and discuss in depth elsewhere too.

 

[rafale]

I think if any lesson can be drawn of the last weeks events, it that Pakistan should be disabused of this notion that it only will fight a 1 front war. The next war will 100% be 2 maybe 3 front (India from west, Israel will definitely come from the east with long range air strikes/missiles, and even potentially though less likely US from the sea). The lesson Pakistan needs to draw here is that it needs to massively increase the numbers and quality of its missile stocks. Put out a longer range missile that covers all the middle east from any location in Pakistan. Approach the Iranian about the Shahed drone and start pumping Pakistani variant of it and your own loitering munitions en mass. Heck even the US is producing a variant of it probably stolen from Ukrainian battlefield. Every bicycle and machine shop in Pakistan should be put to work building these low cost drones/weapons in numbers. Pakistan should be able to at least match if not exceed the 300-500 such drones per day number and put up enough drones to launch 300+ per day for month or 2 when pressed.

It also needs to massively ramp up production of its ballistic missiles. Certain missiles should be modified to also include the cluster warheads Iran like on Khorramshahr, and install this on the likes of Shaheen 3/Ababeel amd even versions of this on Fatah 2 such systems woulc be very effective in allowing wide spread attacks on airfields and sam installation, where even damaging subsystems can take the whole unit out of the fight fo a short time.

Honestly would currently acquisitions of large ticket item on a temporary backburner for a year or so and focus your resources on this and dramatically upgrading your air defense capabilities (building large volumes of FAAZ based SAMs, acquiring SIPER in with in house production, buying HQ-19 for ABM/Long range AD). Also getting ATOM 35mm smart/air burst munitions from Turkey will help immensely in dealing with drones without exposing AD missile unites by allowing Pakistan to start large scale fielding of gun based CIWS like Gokdeniz/Korkut.

Yes this will cost large sums of money but if this war serves as a lesson for Pakistan, typical conventional items will be quickly overwhelmed by overwhelming force from combined assaults of Israel/India and possibly US. China will likely lend technical and material support but not likely physical intervention (which would be dumb for them). And these are cost effective force multipliers.

There is no FAAZ.

There is zero chance India will go against PAF in Air to Air combat, they simply do not have the AA missiles to counter the PL15 threat.

What they will do and what Pakistan needs to focus on is the use of air launched ballistic missiles, like the Blue Sparrow that Israel used recently. The ballistic missiles will be used to target your airbases and for that Pakistan needs an effective ABM shield. ALBMs make tracking extremely difficult to intercept and are the real threat.

So Pakistan needs to focus on ABM, not air to air combat within the limited time and budget.

 

[rafale]

What i'd say here is, AD does have its utility in our theatre. Indian AD performed exceptionally well. Pak AD was not bad either, but there was alot left to be desired.

I dont necessarily agree with the procurement decisions made at the moment, i might even dare to say they reek of corruption and under the table bribes etc, but whatever. The issue isnt in the systems, rather, the fact that the systems we've been buying havent been well suited to our threats. This, i addressed heavily in an episode of the Quwa Podcast.


Again, not necessarily true, AD has been performing exceptionally well in ukraine, israel, ME etc. But if you're expecting the Iron dome to take down hypersonics, yea, in that case your expectations, not procurement choices need to be adjusted.


Again, its really a case of 'it depends'.

We're seeing alot of long range sams go the way of a huge booster and a smaller dart. This gives you far superior energy in the terminal stages, Though, im sure this design is just easier to produce, and cheaper, hence its popularity! Very good design choice though IMO.


Lasers, or Softkill systems arent going to be able to destroy every type of target, nor will AAM's.

One aspect you forget about is the complication AD adds to adversary mission planning.

The IAF needs to factor every missile into its plans of attack. The pilots need to keep in mind that at any point, they could be fired upon etc. This in itself creates a barrier, but also, makes adversary missions more complex.

The wrong type of ad, such as FD2000s layered with HQ-9s?! (see where it feels a bit shady), alongside HQ-16FE's? The wrong type of AD like this, will probably be a detriment.

However, a proper layered defensive system, built off of modern, agile missiles will be a great asset to the PAF and the country. Unfortunately AD is a very long term purchase, so we've made our bed now, and must lay in it.

And to your first point, i agree, we must shift to an offensive defense type doctrine, but we can discuss that elsewhere. Happy to make my post more detailed and discuss in depth elsewhere too. Mods will throw a hissy fit and close this thread if i ramble on too long and others carry the discussion on too far here.

What's better layering with HQ9/16? Would be happy to know.

I believe PAF will stick with chinese systems for their ease of supply and integration in the overall AD net. However, the indian missiles that did get through and hit hangers on our airbases happened not because the present AD was lacking technically but because their were gaps in their coverage......which can be fulfilled by having more of the same systems overlapping.

This is literally what Israel and GCC nations did. There are videos of multiple interceptors being launched at a single Iranian missile, tells you that to have a 100% kill probability you need to launch 2,3,4 interceptors.

The problem is not HQ9,16 or FD2000, it is the threat that is emerging, i.e. ALBMs. By nature of their flight characteristics, ALBMs will be going steep hypersonic on their way down. Tracking them on launch and then re-entry is gonna be a pain. Then you need effective tracking and enough interceptors (hit to kill) to take them out.

Consider Israel launched their Blue Sparrows using F-15s, India will be mating these on their SU30s and will launch from deep within India. Meaning the only way Pakistan can counter this threat is while ALBMs are already on their way back into re-entry stage.

Instead of more AA fighters, Pakistan needs effective ABM shield now.

 

[White Privilege]

What i'd say here is, AD does have its utility in our theatre. Indian AD performed exceptionally well. Pak AD was not bad either, but there was alot left to be desired.

I dont necessarily agree with the procurement decisions made at the moment, i might even dare to say they reek of corruption and under the table bribes etc, but whatever. The issue isnt in the systems, rather, the fact that the systems we've been buying havent been well suited to our threats. This, i addressed heavily in an episode of the Quwa Podcast.


Again, not necessarily true, AD has been performing exceptionally well in ukraine, israel, ME etc. But if you're expecting the Iron dome to take down hypersonics, yea, in that case your expectations, not procurement choices need to be adjusted.


Again, its really a case of 'it depends'.

We're seeing alot of long range sams go the way of a huge booster and a smaller dart. This gives you far superior energy in the terminal stages, Though, im sure this design is just easier to produce, and cheaper, hence its popularity! Very good design choice though IMO.


Lasers, or Softkill systems arent going to be able to destroy every type of target, nor will AAM's.

One aspect you forget about is the complication AD adds to adversary mission planning.

The IAF needs to factor every missile into its plans of attack. The pilots need to keep in mind that at any point, they could be fired upon etc. This in itself creates a barrier, but also, makes adversary missions more complex.

The wrong type of ad, such as FD2000s layered with HQ-9s?! (see where it feels a bit shady), alongside HQ-16FE's? The wrong type of AD like this, will probably be a detriment.

However, a proper layered defensive system, built off of modern, agile missiles will be a great asset to the PAF and the country. Unfortunately AD is a very long term purchase, so we've made our bed now, and must lay in it.

And to your first point, i agree, we must shift to an offensive defense type doctrine, but we can discuss that elsewhere. Happy to make my post more detailed and discuss in depth elsewhere too. Mods will throw a hissy fit and close this thread if i ramble on too long and others carry the discussion on too far here.

Yeah right apologies to the mighty mods for any derailment but I will try to sum it up. My point is longer ranged SAMS should not factor in as high in our operational planning ,as they sadly appear, given their limited utility and comparatively high cost as we must plan to very scarce resources, in the context of the ever evolving threat we face from Indians. If an HQ-9 radar flashed the Rafale and drove it into the jaws of a PL-15 , fantastic, but that is just the radar, what did we buy the missiles for?? And as the fight switches to even greater ranges, the SAM utility further decreases. Even the 'properly layered AD' would be just that , a mere static defensive system, that will need to keep up to date with the evolution of the quantity and quality of airborne threats. In essence a resource black hole for a cash strapped nation.

 

[Tank131]

There is no FAAZ.

There is zero chance India will go against PAF in Air to Air combat, they simply do not have the AA missiles to counter the PL15 threat.

What they will do and what Pakistan needs to focus on is the use of air launched ballistic missiles, like the Blue Sparrow that Israel used recently. The ballistic missiles will be used to target your airbases and for that Pakistan needs an effective ABM shield. ALBMs make tracking extremely difficult to intercept and are the real threat.

So Pakistan needs to focus on ABM, not air to air combat within the limited time and budget.

Isnt that exactly what i said? Focus on ballistic missiles especially creative applications like the cluster warheads as these can be deployed against airbases and radar/sam installation really taking them out of the fight, even with a portion of the munitions strike true and with low probability to intercept. once they fragment.

As for FAAZ, there is a a FAAZ-2 A2A missile program in development based on SD-10 by GIDS. One is the RF and the other an IR variant. Given that it is based on SD-10, the RF variant could be converted to a sam akin to DK-10 (50km range). These or along with Siper (100-150km) and hopefully HQ-19 could form a strong AD umbrella for Pakistan but the first 2 really need to be made locally (all components). It is Possible a SAM based on FAAZ/Siper wont beeeded given the GIDS LOMADS program (which reports ti see a range of 100km but like FAAZ who knows what the status is and when it will (if ever) see the light of day. Hence why i think SIPER (whose block 1 is in service already) will be important for Pakistan. That said better ABM capabilities are desperately needed along with better anti-drone and cruise missile defense. That's where acquiring HQ-19 will be important and getting TOT for Korkut to be licensed at HIT would be ideal. Pakistan could manufactur this under license, producing large number of self propelled 35mm air defense systems with AESA based radars and AI Targeting software. Then get TOT for Atom 35mm airburst munitions to be manufactured at POF and you have the makings of a stong Gun based anti-drone swarm, anti-cruise missile network.

 

[rafale]

Isnt that exactly what i said? Focus on ballistic missiles especially creative applications like the cluster warheads as these can be deployed against airbases and radar/sam installation really taking them out of the fight, even with a portion of the munitions strike true and with low probability to intercept. once they fragment.

As for FAAZ, there is a a FAAZ-2 A2A missile program in development based on SD-10 by GIDS. One is the RF and the other an IR variant. Given that it is based on SD-10, the RF variant could be converted to a sam akin to DK-10 (50km range). These or along with Siper (100-150km) and hopefully HQ-19 could form a strong AD umbrella for Pakistan but the first 2 really need to be made locally (all components). It is Possible a SAM based on FAAZ/Siper wont beeeded given the GIDS LOMADS program (which reports ti see a range of 100km but like FAAZ who knows what the status is and when it will (if ever) see the light of day. Hence why i think SIPER (whose block 1 is in service already) will be important for Pakistan. That said better ABM capabilities are desperately needed along with better anti-drone and cruise missile defense. That's where acquiring HQ-19 will be important and getting TOT for Korkut to be licens

I think lets spare this thread and take AD discussions into the relevant thread.

 

[Yasser76]

Good thread gone way off topic

 

[Goenitz]

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