I found this analysis of Iran's missile firing capability written by someone on this conspiracy forum, and
he made a reasonable and positive outlook for Iran's ability to continue launching missiles every day while the enemy will lose interceptors at a faster rate : https://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message4250712/pg709
Quoted Recollector :
We now have more information (which is 100% true) to work with, and also some very reliable reports (while unconfirmed, they are very logical, and very likely true).
When the 12 day war happened, Iranian missiles decreased in number of launches in the first week, then they increased.
But, the number of launches is irrelevant in assessing the capacity of the parties in either launching missiles or intercepting them. The only reliable number is the success rate.
Now, we know that during the 12 day war, Iran launched most of its older missiles in the first week, and most of them were shot down. In the second week, Iran launched more and more missiles (but still less then the first week), but those were newer missiles, Israel's interceptors were running very low, and most of the Iranian missiles hit Israel.
This is also happening today. It is the first week, and it plays like the last time. Will Iran launch more and more missiles next week?
My answer is 100% YES, and this is based on what is fundamentally different now, then in the 12 day war : the U.S. radars in the region were fully operational, tracking every single missile launched from Iran, while today, after the Chinese released to the public satellite photos, the U.S. radars in the region are DESTROYED.
Iran, just like any other country would do, have 2 main goals in the opening phase of the war :
1.Exhaust the U.S./Israel/Gulf States interceptors.
2.Destroy the enemy's capacity to track launches - destroy the radars.
Last night, Iran launched it's biggest missile to Israel : Khorramshahr 4. Why this is important? It is important because it takes A LOT OF TIME to set up the launch and it was on open field, not hidden.
Now, the U.S. and Israel claim to have destroyed a bunch of launchers, even small trucks with drones...and I do not deny that they did it.
But how come they DID NOT detected a fucking big ass missile in open terrain, who takes a lot of time to be deployed, erected and launched?
The answer is quite clear : they DID detected it, but they could not engage it, because they have no air presence over most of Iran.
The videos and images of Israeli/U.S. hits in Iran are coming from Tehran and most Western parts of Iran...and this is because the Israeli/U.S. jets are launching MISSILES from outside Iran.
All this propaganda BS that the U.S. is using bombers in Iran is for the idiots.
If the U.S. would be ABLE to use bombers in Iran, this means that they have air SUPREMACY. Not just superiority, SUPREMACY. And if they have supremacy, as they claim...why they didn't blow the shit up of that Khorramshahr 4 missile? Or the Fateh one, which also was launched last night, which is also a big missile?
So, we have several FACTS to work with :
1. Iran destroyed most U.S. radars in the region.
2. Iran was able to launch big ass missiles, which means that either the U.S. is INCAPABLE of detecting the movement of such missiles, OR incapable of attacking it before launch, which means the Iranian air defense is far from being destroyed, as the U.S. claims.
3. Reports are saying that Russia is giving intel and targeting to the Iranians, and since the U.S. does the same FOR 4 YEARS now, to Ukraine...it is fucking obvious that Russia started, and will continue to do the same for Iran against the U.S. and Israel.
4. FOUR (maybe FIVE) THAAD systems were either destroyed, either their radars were destroyed. This is the ONLY SYSTEM that can destroy large ICBM missiles, even if it have low interception rate, it is the only one who can do it. Anything else can't, be it PAC-3, Arrow, David's Sling (which are ALL hybrids of PAC-3 and THAAD).
Do you see where I am going with this?
Iran mostly depleted the Israeli and U.S. interceptors, destroyed the entire high-end radar array of the U.S. in the region and destroyed high altitude interception capacity of THAAD systems in the region.
I don't think I have to spell WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT.
Now, we have reports that the third U.S. carrier group have been ordered to deploy in the area. Either it will replace the Ford (which is deployed on the seas for almost a year, and really needs maintenance), either will be added.
The point is that even if it leaves today, it will take about 2 weeks to reach the area. So, for at least 2 more weeks, the war will continue. It will be A LOT more then 2 weeks, but that is another subject.
I will use some numerical examples to show how missile warfare works, in the case of Iran. It is different for Russia or China, because many fucking reasons.
The U.S. and Israel understand very well that the only way to defeat Iran is to destroy their missile launching capabilities. They also understand that they have to do it fast, because the number of interceptors at their disposal is low (probably 4000 of them across the region, Iron Dome not included because it cannot intercept ballistic missiles) and, it does not have a very good interceptor rate.
Iran also know this.
So, let's assume that Iran have 2,000 missiles able to hit Israel, and likely +10,000 missiles able to hit the Gulf states. These are the most reliable numbers. I believe they are highly underestimating the numbers, but let's work with those numbers.
What we do not know, is how many surface launchers Iran have, nor how many underground launchers they have. But, for the sake of argument, let's say that they have 500 hundred surface launchers and 200 underground launchers.
Let's assume that the U.S. and Israel can destroy 50% of the launchers that are used daily. Like Iran uses 100 launchers in Day 1, and they lose 50 of them, and so on. Again we don't know how many Iran have and how many U.S. and Israel can destroy. I won't use any number regarding the launchers.
We have seen 2-3, sometimes 8 or 12 interceptors used to destroy Iranian missiles, and fail. Obviously, I will not go for 8 or 12, I will stick to 2 or 3, so 2.5 interceptors per Iranian missile.
4,000 available interceptors means, if really lucky, 2,000 Iranian missiles destroyed. We already see that the Gulf states are OUT of interceptors. They stated that they downed over 500 Iranian missiles. Fine, but that is at least 1,000 interceptors. The rest are clearly defending Israel.
Could there be more interceptors? Sure...but it also could be more Iranian missiles...
WHY is Iran launching less missiles?
1.They were severely degraded by U.S./Israeli strikes.
2.They intentionally used most missiles in the first 2 days, to deplete interceptors, then launched less, just to see if they indeed depleted those interceptors, OR it was enough to destroy the radars and the launchers of those interceptors.
3.They intentionally launched less missiles, saving the most of their launchers for later.
We will see in the future which is which.
Now, the numerical example, since we do not know the reality :
Day 1 : Iran launches 500 missiles, 90% of them are shot down, 50 missiles hit targets, 1,000 interceptors used.
Day 2 : Iran launches 300 missiles, 80% of them are shot down, 60 missiles hit targets, 600 interceptors used.
Day 3 : Iran launches 100 missiles, 70% of them are intercepted, 30 hit their target, 200 interceptor used.
Day 4 : Iran launches 100 missiles, 70% of them are intercepted, 30 hit their target, 200 interceptor used.
So, in this arbitrary scenario, where Iran losses launchers, but also depleted interceptors, destroy radars, etc., they used up 1,000 missiles, lost 830 missiles, had 170 successful his, and U.S. and Israel managed to destroy enough launchers, and used up 2,000 interceptors.
What I am trying to say here, is that Iran, even if they lose many launchers, they can still build them (really easy to build them), and they will lose less launchers if they launch less missiles, because the country is big, and the launchers will be much more dispersed, while the U.S. and Israel will ran out of interceptors before Iran runs out of launchers and missiles.
Even if Iran is able to launch JUST 20 MISSILES per day...EVERY DAY...for many months, and those missiles cannot be intercepted, well...
And I haven't started on DRONES...
Again, this is what I would do if I would be in charge in Iran.
Remains to be seen what will be the case, but I am extremely confident that Iran will REMOVE the U.S. military from the Gulf and it will destroy Israel as a functional state...unless the U.S. nukes them.
If the U.S. resorts to nukes, then Israel will be LITERALLY destroyed, the U.S. bases AND the Gulf States LITERALLY DESTROYED, and Iran, well, also literally destroyed...but this is the scenario when total nuclear war starts, Russia, China, Europe and the U.S. will be also destroyed.
I do not see ANY scenario where this conflict ends with a U.S. / Israeli victory over Iran.
It will be Iran victorious (but severely damaged), or nukes will start flying.
There can be many phases in between, like U.S. deploying troops to Iran, getting beaten, then use nukes...or winning against Iran, and Russia and China get directly involved...
The LEAST damaging scenario I can see, is for the U.S. to accept defeat, LEAVE the Middle East and leave Israel to its fate, whatever that fate might be.
But this is also the almost impossible scenario, for the reasons I pointed out in my thread for many years now : the Empire will not go down without doing everything possible to save itself, including nuclear war.
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