US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[AZ_HighCountry]

You still need to capture the entire coastline of Iran (well, until the bit that cut off by the strait) and until then, the strait is still open to attack, which mean you cant stabilise the situation.

I'm not sure even then the Strait would not be at risk. So long as Iran is capable of launching missiles from anywhere in the country, the Strait remains at risk.

 

[j_hungary]

It’s not pointless if Iran loses control over the Strait. This is about getting Iran conceding to US demands, not stopping every single attack. If they lose control of the Strait, they don’t have many cards left to play.

Dude, again, they didn't actually "attack" the shipping. I just show you the JMIC statement, they attacked less than 1 ship a day, where there are usually 136 ship transit thru the day on a normal day, and THAT is the reason why the strait closed. Not because there are mine or they keep bombing them

So how Iran will lose control of the strait once the US attacked the Island? When they still have the coast and they can certainly mount less than 1 attack a day, which is the same rate here, when the strait IS CURRENTLY closed? That's not a logical conclusion here because the operation element remains unchanged, because they weren't using the island to attack the shipping.

And that is before you WILL have your troop attacked in those Island, they can still attack Bahrain, UAE and Israel means they CAN attack those island the US occupied.....And also what will Iran do if US physically assault their soil, you are thinking, sure we invaded their island and they will give up. But, what if they don't? People don't fight war based on what you think will happen, I fought long enough to understand this basic concept.......

 

[j_hungary]

I'm not sure even then the Strait would not be at risk. So long as Iran is capable of launching missiles from anywhere in the country, the Strait remains at risk.

No, even the coast is gone, they can still attack, but the risk is lower, which is where the "Trump Insurance" can start kicking in and get the ship moving. As you took the coast, it blanked out the USV threat, and you have a buffer zone to detect incoming drones

Trump admin announces $20 billion reinsurance program for oil tankers during Iran war

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill as the Iran war engulfs the region.

www.cnbc.com

Right now, it would be stupid or suicidal to even try to cash in Trump's 20 billion insurance check. But if the US did occupy the coast, at least that would become a valid option.

The only, and I mean ONLY way to force this problem out is for the ME to either make a canal thru Omen to the Indian Ocean or have expand the East-West Pipeline Saudi had by 15 fold, otherwise as long as ship is using the strait, and Iran is on one side of that strait, there are no way Iran is not a threat (Or you can try to topple the Iranian regime and install a friendly government? Well, good luck with that)

 

[KAL-EL]

I thought this was from the American perspective?

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

I thought this was from the American perspective?

It is, why?

j_hungary has American roots even though he sports Aussie flags.

As stated in the opening posted, everyone is invited to post here. This thread exists because some American members cannot post in the primary thread. This thread allows them to voice their opinions. Forum rules still apply for all.

 

[F-22Raptor]

You must be joking right?

Iran never had an airforce

Irans navy was littoral, a coastal navy at best

Iran lost most of their advance air defence in the June war

And you are patting yourself on the back talking about a dominant display of airpower.

Regime change was the primary objective of this war, so far they have failed and its looking less and less likely to happen.

70% of Irans missiles and drone capability destroyed is your wetdream, there is no verifiable proof of this, Iran continues to hit across the region and all that airpower has not been able to stop it.

If things stay like this with Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz and only payments in Renmenbi being accepted to cross the straits, this will be a big geo strategic defeat for the US and Israel.

Your politicians are struggling against Iran and you want to take on China?

What a joke.

The air campaign has been dominant. They’ve achieved Desert Storm level of sorties with 200 fighters and 25-30 bombers. They’ve had huge success in hunting TELs. 11,000 targets hit with 11,000 sorties in a month of combat and not a single aircraft shot down by enemy fire other than a single F-35 damaged that made it back to base.

70% of Iranian missile/drone/naval production facilities destroyed was confirmed by ADM Cooper earlier this week.

The Iranians strategic position is significantly degraded which is confirmed by the US intelligence community. They’ve effectively lost this war, and US ground operations are imminent.

As for China, they’ve never fought a modern day war and Xi is busy purging nearly all of his top military leadership. They’re in no position to challenge the US and all they signal is weakness.

 

[j_hungary]

I thought this was from the American perspective?

The American perspective is, we are F'ed. Unless the new guy in Iran caves, we are going to be forced into another Middle Eastern ground war, and that's the US perspective.

Think about it like this, even if Trump said "we had enough, and we are going home," stop all attacks, did nothing, washing his hands over this, what do you think will happen?

What will happen is that he made Iran know, from now on, anytime the US or Israel stop Iranian interest, they can just use the "scarface" strategy and say "It would be ashame if one of those ship got attacked" they don't need to physically attack them, they don't even need a solid plan that any attack would be successful, that alone will stop shipping from transiting. And if you are the US, what would you think when Iran said we are going to restart the nuclear program sometime down the road? Well, you bomb them again, and they do this again, and certainly at one stage, it may not be the next time, or the time after next time, that you realise as long as Iran was there, the strait is ALWASY going to be open to attack, which mean the only option is a ground operation, then you say to yourself, why not do it now when we had already taken out 85% of Iranian defence?

 

[KAL-EL]

The American perspective is, we are F'ed. Unless the new guy in Iran caves, we are going to be forced into another Middle Eastern ground war, and that's the US perspective.

Think about it like this, even if Trump said "we had enough, and we are going home," stop all attacks, did nothing, washing his hands over this, what do you think will happen?

What will happen is that he made Iran know, from now on, anytime the US or Israel stop Iranian interest, they can just use the "scarface" strategy and say "It would be ashame if one of those ship got attacked" they don't need to physically attack them, they don't even need a solid plan that any attack would be successful, that alone will stop shipping from transiting. And if you are the US, what would you think when Iran said we are going to restart the nuclear program sometime down the road? Well, you bomb them again, and they do this again, and certainly at one stage, it may not be the next time, or the time after next time, that you realise as long as Iran was there, the strait is ALWASY going to be open to attack, which mean the only option is a ground operation, then you say to yourself, why not do it now when we had already taken out 85% of Iranian defence?

Very good perspective

 

[Fatman17]

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Watch till the end

 

[Fatman17]

USA Happiness index

 

[Davey Crockett]

Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’​

US president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continue

Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’

US president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continue

www.ft.com

 

[Fatman17]

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[AZ_HighCountry]

Let's dial it back a bit, shall we?

As for China, no more references to it. China is not the topic for those of you who seem to be memory challenged.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’​

US president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continue

Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’

US president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continue

www.ft.com

Seizing Kharg makes no sense strategically. That was already discussed by a former CENTCOM CG.

 

[RescueRanger]

My humble opinion (I'm not American) but since this thread is about the US perspective, ground operations in any part of Iran or it's territories would be a miscalculation that will hurt the US in the long term but also have catastrophic consequences for MENA and beyond.