Day 2 of 14 day ceasefire:
- Largely holding between US and Iran
- Mostly holding between Israel and Iran (though Israel continues to fly drones over Iranian airspace which Iran is downing)
- UAE and Iran’s tit for tat seems to be over
- the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed (see below)
- Israel continues to commit genocide in Lebanon and the U.S. decided that Lebanon is not part of the agreement, threatening the ceasefire as Iran insists it must include Lebanon. Iran’s response is calibrated to minimise the risk of provoking the U.S., and limited to keeping the Strait closed
- with the latest U.S. statements insisting on no enrichment in Iran, the ceasefire seems to have a low chance of success. But IRI are committed to it despite some anger from the public, and talks continue in Pakistan