This tells you everything you need to know (Kalshi Odds)
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Unlike Poll, this is what people are actually putting money into it, so there is that.
At the start of Trump presidency, the chance of Democrats winning the Senate was almost none
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The issue here is that if this war had not been resolved soon, Democrats would not just win the House, but it would be a major blowout; it's not like last time when Republicans picked up the House with +7 seats in 2022. It depends on the war; currently, we are looking at a D+10 swing (That will translate into a 50-56 seat change, but if this goes bad, it can reach a D+15 swing, which means you are looking at around 70 seat changes. The problem is, as bad as it is now, almost all the projected changes at this moment are more progressive than traditional democrats seats. For a D+15 scenario, that means a serious pull back from the US political landscape. Because unless the GOP elects an extreme opposite to Trump as a presidential candidate, there is pretty much no way the GOP will win anything (not just losing the Presidency, but all 3) in 2028 as the voting public had been pulled too far to the left by then.