Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

Brent crude peaked above $114/barrel during the the 40 day war with strait of Hormuz closed.

This war, it peaked at $100.69/barrel on July 23 despite strait of Hormuz closure, Bab el Mandeb closure, and lower reserve inventories.

This trend neutralizes Iran's main deterrent. Accepting a ceasefire again despite this and despite the axiom that agreements will not be respected is something else.

Exactly. There used to be people here who before the war predicted oil prices would exceed $200 per barrel. It never materialized.

The truth is that Iran's impact on energy price has been minimal and it's already getting fully neutralized. If you adjust oil prices after the US invasion of Iraq for inflation, anything below $170 per barrel is still pretty low and hardly noticeable.

 

[mangekyo]

Or it could cement his influence in the US politics and turn him into a legend in the US politics. It's a risk he's willing to take because he's a man-child and he wants to be remembered as the best US president ever lol

Don't you see how he constantly compares himself to people like George Washington and wants to put his name everywhere?

Iran has turned itself into an icon of anti-American sentiments in modern history. Defeating Iran, which is seen as an anti-American, anti-Israeli system, is indeed important for Trump.

That doesn’t explain why he didn’t wait until after the elections. If Trump actually was worried, he wouldn’t do the one thing that might ruin the elections for him.

If you say he thought it would be over in a couple days, then it actually makes less sense because he was in no hurry. He would have had plenty of time after the elections.

The only explanation is that he thought he would lose the elections unless he got a win in Iran, but that’s a big speculation and he already had the support of the magatards. Especially after Venezuela.

 

[mangekyo]

What will eventually happen is a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Thats just BS. Which country in the Middle East has the capability and independence to develop nukes?

 

[Magi]

If he wasn't worried about the elections, he wouldn't have stopped attacking us.

Do you think Trump cares if Iran targets more empty bases in Kuwait or Bahrain? lol Or do you think Trump cares about a couple of shoeless Kurdish insurgents?

This thing seems bigger than Trump. He is another tool to advance a decades old roadmap. Trump already served his purpose by starting this war. He is replaceable, which explains his care about elections. The next tool will continue the same agenda and will probably be better at it too.

 

[KAL-EL]

Thats just BS. Which country in the Middle East has the capability and independence to develop nukes?

Mind you, I'm not an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, but at the very least Saudi Arabia would probably go nuclear.

You actually think that once Iran goes full nuclear that Saudi Arabia who is basically next door will do nothing?

 

[Shags101]

Take everything with a grain of salt with what’s going on but the Arab/Muslim cough cough American perspective has gone dark so maybe it is a great deal……I had too sorry

 

[mangekyo]

Mind you, I'm not an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, but at the very least Saudi Arabia would probably go nuclear.

You actually think that once Iran goes full nuclear that Saudi Arabia who is basically next door will do nothing?

Buddy please. How on earth is Saudi Arabia going to develop a nuke? With what industrial base and with which scientists?

 

[ShapurII]

That doesn’t explain why he didn’t wait until after the elections. If Trump actually was worried, he wouldn’t do the one thing that might ruin the elections for him.

If you say he thought it would be over in a couple days, then it actually makes less sense because he was in no hurry. He would have had plenty of time after the elections.

The only explanation is that he thought he would lose the elections unless he got a win in Iran, but that’s a big speculation and he already had the support of the magatards. Especially after Venezuela.

It does. Let me remind you what happened.

In January, after a complete mishandling of the economy which caused the US dollar to double its price in one month, Bazaar of major cities in Tehran shut down their stores and people poured into the streets of Tehran and tried to topple the regime. Then Iranians abroad held rallies against the regime. Netanyahu presented that as proof to Trump that Iran would fall easily in a matter of days and convinced him to attack Iran as soon as possible.

That's how it all started on February 28th. Trump's original plan was to pull something like what happened in Venezuela in Iran. He waited for somebody inside the system to contact him and sign his terms of surrender. That didn't happen.

After that, he started to realize he had a new problem: the Strait of Hormuz. Ever since, he's been trying to resolve this problem while at the same time it is trying to weaken Iran and degrade our capabilities with minimal cost to the US. The US is killing Iran with minimal cost.

Does it explain what is happening now?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Exactly. There used to be people here who before the war predicted oil prices would exceed $200 per barrel. It never materialized.

The truth is that Iran's impact on energy price has been minimal and it's already getting fully neutralized. If you adjust oil prices after the US invasion of Iraq for inflation, anything below $170 per barrel is still pretty low and hardly noticeable.

Right now, it is the transitional period of toward the green energy, since the Russia-Ukraine war didn't cause much impact on the global oil price and inflation as expected, and probably similar trend will have occurred in the middle east.

The current war on Iran if occurred in the 2000s, the oil price would have easily capped above $200 per barrel.

 

[Shags101]

Mind you, I'm not an expert in Middle Eastern affairs, but at the very least Saudi Arabia would probably go nuclear.

You actually think that once Iran goes full nuclear that Saudi Arabia who is basically next door will do nothing?

Than turkey than Egypt and so on I’m for it personally not for use but to basically shit the doors on nuclear Middle East forever why does Israel fear Iran going nuclear it’s simple just what you said everyone will go for it and if the reports are true which probably more or less are Saudis will have a nuclear weapon handed to them by tomorrow forget building one or not Pakistan would hand deliver them to the Saudis

 

[mangekyo]

It does. Let me remind you what happened.

In January, after a complete mishandling of the economy which caused the US dollar to double its price in one month, Bazaar of major cities in Tehran shut down their stores and people poured into the streets of Tehran and tried to topple the regime. Then Iranians abroad held rallies against the regime. Netanyahu presented that as proof to Trump that Iran would fall easily in a matter of days and convinced him to attack Iran as soon as possible.

That's how it all started on February 28th. Trump's original plan was to pull something like what happened in Venezuela in Iran. He waited for somebody inside the system to contact him and sign his terms of surrender. That didn't happen.

After that, he started to realize he had a new problem: the Strait of Hormuz. Ever since, he's been trying to resolve this problem while at the same time it is trying to weaken Iran and degrade our capabilities with minimal cost to the US. The US is killing Iran with minimal cost.

Does it explain what is happening now?

No it doesn’t. Because he didn’t need this war and the risk was way too high.

 

[ShapurII]

Right now, it is the traditional period of toward the green energy, since the Russia-Ukraine war didn't cause much impact on the global oil price and inflation as expected, and probably similar trend will have occurred in the middle east.

The current war on Iran if occurred in the 2000s, the oil price would have easily capped above $200 per barrel.

Ukraine wasn't a major producer of oil or natural gas, and Russia's energy infrastructure has hardly been affected by the war.

Sure, Ukraine had a few hits here and there, but nothing major because the Americans drew very clear red lines for the Ukrainians against targeting Russian oil and natural gas production.

This is very different from the situation in this war where Iran targeted 20% of Qatar's LNG production in just a single day.

 

[ShapurII]

No it doesn’t. Because he didn’t need this war and the risk was way too high.

It does actually. There's no risk for him. He has destroyed Iran, set us back for at least a decade, and lost only 18 soldiers. What risk? lol

For comparison, the US lost 139 men during the invasion of Iraq in 3 weeks. So, again, what risk?

You talk as if Iran had been able to do anything to make this a risky war for Trump.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Ukraine wasn't a major producer of oil or natural gas, and Russia's energy infrastructure has hardly been affected by the war.

Sure, Ukraine had a few hits here and there, but nothing major because the Americans drew very clear red lines for the Ukrainians against targeting Russian oil and natural gas production.

This is very different from the situation in this war where Iran targeted 20% of Qatar's LNG production in just a single day.

That's why the war on Iran has bigger impact that the Russia-Ukraine war, but still got limited impact compared to the initial expectation because it got mitigated by the transitional period toward the green energy.

If it wasn't the surge of the renewable energy, war on Iran would be much more devastating than the war on Iraq for many non-oil producer nations.

 

[mangekyo]

It does actually. There's no risk for him. He has destroyed Iran, set us back for at least a decade, and lost only 18 soldiers. What risk? lol

You talk as if Iran had been able to do anything to make this a risky war for Trump.

So you’re telling me Trump will get re elected if the war continues like this until the elections?

(Not reelected literally, win the midterm)