Is China’s industrial overcapacity the last line of defence against US inflation?

[Beijingwalker]

Is China’s industrial overcapacity the last line of defence against US inflation?​

11 November, 2026
Monday’s US CPI exceeded expectations by +50%, reaching +0.3% MoM in Oct’26, putting inflation back in central banks’ spotlight.

Oil is a common inflation proxy, but steel is equally revealing. Hot-Rolled Coil prices, a key manufacturing input, have surged +59% YoY in the USA.

Since 2010, three deflationary forces have contained inflation despite successive rounds of quantitative easing: automation, expanding fossil fuel production (notably US shale oil), and China’s industrial overcapacity.

Today, AI investment fuels inflation while fossil fuel supply remains constrained. Only China’s industrial overcapacity, exporting over 10 Mt/month of steel in Oct’26 alongside other manufactured goods, remains a major deflationary force.

The dilemma: protect local industries (where they exist) or import cheaper Chinese goods to contain inflation. A bullish prospect for geared bulk carriers, carrying Chinese steel and other energy-intensive manufactured goods to help extinguish the inflation fire!

 

[Beijingwalker]

Curbing China's exports vs curing inflation, a huge dilemma for US.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Curbing China's exports vs curing inflation, a huge dilemma for US.

No, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS is an international shipbroking firm. They have ulterior motives for writing such an article.



When China overproduces steel and heavy goods that its domestic economy cannot absorb, those goods have to be put on ships and sent overseas.

It's in FCHOR GALBRAITHS best interest to push for more imports from China when prices are cheap...this is all about increasing short terms gains for their business.

Overview | IFCHOR GALBRAITHS

ifchorgalbraiths.com

IFCHOR GALBRAITHS (IG) is one of the world’s largest international shipbroking firms, delivering discreet advisory services to shipowners, charterers and global commodity traders.

 

[mythbuster]

China is dumping steel are over the world and choking local industries.

 

[Thinking_Hard]

China is dumping steel are over the world and choking local industries.

Not just steel.

 

[ety]

Not just steel.

Well, just dont buy Chinese products then. Nobody is forcing you to buy them. You cant complain at the same time order them like crazy.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Why when the west and Japan dominated the global manufacturing in the past 200 years we never heard the word "over capacity"?

 

[HERO]

When the West leads, it's called free trade.

When China leads, it's branded "overcapacity."

They preach fair competition while practicing protectionism — the hypocrisy is staggering.

 

[mythbuster]

When the West leads, it's called free trade.

When China leads, it's branded "overcapacity."

They preach fair competition while practicing protectionism — the hypocrisy is staggering.

It's hypocrisy and hubris ... Americans shoved free trade down everyone's throats... American believed they will dominate high tech forever and China will always produce cheap low tech goods and now Chinese are shoving it to the Americans.... that's all fair , no problem with it , however , other developing countries are also paying the price... they can't compete with Chinese economy of scales and Chinese work ethics and efficiency.

 

[HERO]

It's hypocrisy and hubris ... Americans shoved free trade down everyone's throats... American believed they will dominate high tech forever and China will always produce cheap low tech goods and now Chinese are shoving it to the Americans.... that's all fair , no problem with it , however , other developing countries are also paying the price... they can't compete with Chinese economy of scales and Chinese work ethics and efficiency.

The so-called "China squeezing the Global South" is just Western narrative-spinning.

The reality is the opposite — China is paving the road: local factories, tech transfer, supply-chain empowerment. This isn't squeezing; it's building a ladder.