Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[tsunset]

Anyone knows some article debunking IDF 99% propaganda and other claims made by the same people?

We need a full neutral analysis of this, it's still funny how people still believes IDF claim, they are trying so hard to downplay everything it seems so that the invincible image of Israel stays in people's mind

 

[jauk]

1. Pop Up - to defeat any Patriot/David Sling
2. Hard turn - steep angle dive
3. De-acceleration maneuver to prevent warhead integrity loss due to excessive terminal speed

Could be any of the 3. Without knowing the missile it’s hard to tell. It seems like Keybar Shekan.

Patarames thinks It’s an evasive maneuver. Some CMs do a similar subsonic maneuver they sea-skim than “pop up” in terminal stage to avoid CWIS.

What I'm asking is can a heavy object diving at extreme velocity maneuver effectively in such a short span of time and at such sharp angles. What's the physics?

 

[jauk]

Anyone knows some article debunking IDF 99% propaganda and other claims made by the same people?

We need a full neutral analysis of this, it's still funny how people still believes IDF claim, they are trying so hard to downplay everything it seems so that the invincible image of Israel stays in people's mind

Caution: The '99%' claims does not work in Zionia's benefit either. Put's a big question mark on their back where 'if you won why respond?'. So.it's not that simple.

Ironically, it also holds that Zionia's need to respond is in direct relation to how much damage they received.

 

[Immortals]

Anyone knows some article debunking IDF 99% propaganda and other claims made by the same people?

We need a full neutral analysis of this, it's still funny how people still believes IDF claim, they are trying so hard to downplay everything it seems so that the invincible image of Israel stays in people's mind

I don’t think Iran launched 110 missiles. In fact, I don’t even think Iran launched 60 missiles.

Does anyone here honestly think Iran launched 60-100 missiles and the only video footage we have officially from Iran shows less than 10?

Where is the other 100? Where is there 2nd stages? Where is there debris from failing? 100 missiles each the length of 2 story building don’t exactly blend in to the environment.

Between southern Iraq and Western Iran, no civilians took any photos/videos of these 100+ missiles? Yet during Solemani attack we saw civilian videos of the launches of every single missile.

Then there is “launch” assessment. I’m sure most if not all the assessment was based from satellite launch detection systems. And they look for “hot fire engine exhaust” signature of the stage 1 ignition of a BM. The issue is, how accurate is it in a salvo situation? It may not be able to accurately count how many missiles are fired.

Then there is the “failed to launch” assessment. How would they know? Obviously the missiles didn’t explode during launch or there would be catastrophic consequences. If they were self detonated after sufficient lift off, again civilians would have noticed massive explosions in the skies in Iran from self detonation or catastrophic failure.

My take: Iran moved likely 100 TELS outside to be ready to fire if Israel did immediate counter attack or they got indications of a immediate counter attack. Once there was no sign, Iran sent them back to base. US is likely counting those as “failed to launch”.

 

[Immortals]

What I'm asking is can a heavy object diving at extreme velocity maneuver effectively in such a short span of time and at such sharp angles.

Yes. How do you think endo/exo ABMs work? You think all they can do is fly to pre-determined point? You can see Interceptors do wild maneuvers too.

ABM can do strong G force manueveres up to the point prior to structural integrity loss, however since it goes against gravity it expends more energy, but it has more fuel since it hasn’t dropped its fuel tanks(stage 1).

BM has gravity pulling it down during descent so it flows with gravity thus it makes maneuvers easier per energy spent, however it likely jettisoned its tanks (stage 1 & 2) long ago thus it relies on fins/thrusters/or glide-skip to best ABM.

I mention Kinetic Energy penalty maneuvers and F-pole bleeds, yet no one listens. Patrames talks about it all the time as well.

ABM vs BM is a dance. BM does some dances and ABM does some dances who runs out of energy first loses.

Qiam = not a dancer, gets kicked off dance floor easily
Emad = not really a dancer, but will bust a move if needed
Keiyban = pretty good dancer
Fattah-2 = incredible dancer

What's the physics?

Iran also deployed endo chaffs (flare like objects) + decoys that many confused with Iron Dome rockets.

 

[Immortals]

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[tsunset]

Did Beshad get back to Iran shores? The first target of a cyberattack would be Beshad and fuel stations

 

[Immortals]

Did Beshad get back to Iran shores? The first target of a cyberattack would be Beshad and fuel stations

Beshad has gone dark. OSINT can’t find it, but I’m sure Mossad has.

Most likely Israeli responses:

• Massive nationwide cyberattack on Iranian oil terminals, gas stations, power network, critical infrastructure
• Symbolic strike on something in Tehran
• IRGC bases (ex Parchin Military Industrial Complex)
• Nuclear program supply chain targets (ie centrifuge manufacturing facilities)

 

[AverageJoe]

I don’t think Iran launched 110 missiles. In fact, I don’t even think Iran launched 60 missiles.

Does anyone here honestly think Iran launched 60-100 missiles and the only video footage we have officially from Iran shows less than 10?

Where is the other 100? Where is there 2nd stages? Where is there debris from failing? 100 missiles each the length of 2 story building don’t exactly blend in to the environment.

Between southern Iraq and Western Iran, no civilians took any photos/videos of these 100+ missiles? Yet during Solemani attack we saw civilian videos of the launches of every single missile.

Then there is “launch” assessment. I’m sure most if not all the assessment was based from satellite launch detection systems. And they look for “hot fire engine exhaust” signature of the stage 1 ignition of a BM. The issue is, how accurate is it in a salvo situation? It may not be able to accurately count how many missiles are fired.

Then there is the “failed to launch” assessment. How would they know? Obviously the missiles didn’t explode during launch or there would be catastrophic consequences. If they were self detonated after sufficient lift off, again civilians would have noticed massive explosions in the skies in Iran from self detonation or catastrophic failure.

My take: Iran moved likely 100 TELS outside to be ready to fire if Israel did immediate counter attack or they got indications of an immediate counter attack. Once there was no sign, Iran sent them back to base. US is likely counting those as “failed to launch”.

Will IRGC publish official figures?

 

[AverageJoe]

Did Beshad get back to Iran shores? The first target of a cyberattack would be Beshad and fuel stations

Why are fuel stations even connected to networks? Critical infrastructure should never be connected to any network

 

[tsunset]

Why are fuel stations even connected to networks? Critical infrastructure should never be connected to any network

I have no idea if they connected, but they got hacked several times

Will IRGC publish official figures?

I also doubt 110 missile were launched, more like 30-60 and US counted those that Iran brought back home as "failed launches"

We didn't saw that much BMs launched from Iran and saw 10-15 impacts on videos, but not as much as in 2020 where everything was being recorded by civilians

 

[tsunset]

Beshad has gone dark. OSINT can’t find it, but I’m sure Mossad has.

Most likely Israeli responses:

• Massive nationwide cyberattack on Iranian oil terminals, gas stations, power network, critical infrastructure
• Symbolic strike on something in Tehran
• IRGC bases (ex Parchin Military Industrial Complex)
• Nuclear program supply chain targets (ie centrifuge manufacturing facilities)

The latter three would result in a response

 

[Cthulhu]

• Symbolic strike on something in Tehran

Holt sh!t can they do this?

IRGC bases (ex Parchin Military Industrial Complex)

Parchin does not belong to IRCG, It belongs to the Ministry of Defense.

 

[Immortals]

Holt sh!t can they do this?

Iran sent BMs over Jerusalem. So yes they can theoretically do this. Will they? I’m not sure. They are trying to avoid mass casualties.

Parchin does not belong to IRCG, It belongs to the Ministry of Defense.

Parchin has roots to the IRGC weapons programs (Israeli sabatoge attack happened in this complex) as well as Iranian nuclear weapons program back in the day.

The latter three would result in a response

I also think all of Iran’s OTH radars are at risk of being hit

 

[Immortals]

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I expect the attack in next 72 hours.

Israel might wait till Friday night when financial markets close.