PA MLRS, Self Propelled and towed artillery [BM-11, Fatah-I GMLRS, Fatah-II] - News, Updates & Discussions

[JamD]

How about Something like CM 401
Its Tel uses 2 pods, Shape is similar to Fatah 2, follows a unique trajectory, Sophisticated guidance system as it can engage moving targets, the range could have been increased because of TOT.View attachment 6774
View attachment 6775
View attachment 6776

I have speculatedfor that to be P282 previously.

However, the fin profile of the Fatah 2 matches much more closely to the CM400AKG.

 

[farooqbhai]

How about Something like CM 401
Its Tel uses 2 pods, Shape is similar to Fatah 2, follows a unique trajectory, Sophisticated guidance system as it can engage moving targets, the range could have been increased because of TOT.View attachment 6774
View attachment 6775
View attachment 6776

likely something very similar to the CM401.

 

[Ak01]

I have speculatedfor that to be P282 previously.

However, the fin profile of the Fatah 2 matches much more closely to the CM400AKG.

tbh i think p282 will probably end up being yj21e which contradicts my other theory lol- why do thye make it so hard for us!

 

[Bilal]

Here is what the deterrent once said in the old PDF, a few years ago. Whether he was pointing to this or some other still to be unveiled system, can’t say:

Western analysts are trying their best to downplay KN-23 and disassociate it with the Iskander-M for some reason, but its clear that they didn't build this missile out of thin air. NK was provided the designs and they just introduced their own modifications on it.
This is the same case as with the current NK ICBMs (HS-12/13/14). For a while NK was failing to manufacture a reliable ICBM because of sub-optimal liquid engines. Then some Russian engines appear out of the blue, and viola, the new ICBM designs worked as intended.

Pakistan is also working on the similar type of quasi-ballistic SRBMs (Iskander etc.), its just a matter of time now.

 

[Bilal]

Also

 

[Kermit]

The confusion made is deliberate.

Hints about this missile were and have been given earlier even in this forum.

Range is more or less reported accurately. FATAH-II might replace older systems and fill in gaps.

 

[MS Sandhu]

The key problem is how many Fatah-IIs can you reliably deploy against an S400 battery. An s400 battery might have a hundred missiles. 10 Fatah-II's will do little to distract an S400. There are better things that can serve as decoys such as Azb. If you dont engage the Azb, it is equally lethal. A Fatah-II rocket is going to be expensive to produce and expend

This makes sense long range tactical ballistics are not that cheap especially for countries like Pakistan.
Americans rely on Stealth sub sonic cruise missiles for SEAD/DEAD roles.
But as we have seen in Russia-Ukraine war, Russian Subsonics have disappointed to large extent as they have failed to take out Patriots.
So Pakistan is exercising multiple options to engage Defence Systems.
Kuch tu kam kare ga.

 

[JamD]

This makes sense long range tactical ballistics are not that cheap especially for countries like Pakistan.
Americans rely on Stealth sub sonic cruise missiles for SEAD/DEAD roles.
But as we have seen in Russia-Ukraine war, Russian Subsonics have disappointed to large extent as they have failed to take out Patriots.
So Pakistan is exercising multiple options to engage Defence Systems.
Kuch tu kam kare ga.

Smarter people dedicated to this task have done more quantitative studies I'm sure but my GUESS is that for Pakistan, the best best to make an S400 ineffective is to confuse the battery enough in a short time in order to hit its radar and command vehicle.

Let's assume there are 160 missiles in a battery that you have to force to fire.
Maybe you can lob 20 Azbs at it.
You need some kind of dedicated decoy - perhaps a small Uqaab-sized UAV with an spoofing payload. Perhaps you can launch 50 of those.
You are not going to force s400 to expend all of its missiles (70 at max). You need a time-on-target attack where you overwhelm the ability of the s400 to engage targets simultaneously and then maybe hit it with Fatah-II barrage. Why did I launch 70 decoys? Well, time-on-target attacks are VERY difficult to achieve and those decoys are going to be spread out over some time - and that window can be used by something like Fatah-II. But it might fail because different type of missiles are used against ballistic targets and a Fatah-II might be prioritized as a target by the S400.

The short answer is that this is a difficult task with no right answer.

 

[Oscar]

Smarter people dedicated to this task have done more quantitative studies I'm sure but my GUESS is that for Pakistan, the best best to make an S400 ineffective is to confuse the battery enough in a short time in order to hit its radar and command vehicle.

Let's assume there are 160 missiles in a battery that you have to force to fire.
Maybe you can lob 20 Azbs at it.
You need some kind of dedicated decoy - perhaps a small Uqaab-sized UAV with an spoofing payload. Perhaps you can launch 50 of those.
You are not going to force s400 to expend all of its missiles (70 at max). You need a time-on-target attack where you overwhelm the ability of the s400 to engage targets simultaneously and then maybe hit it with Fatah-II barrage. Why did I launch 70 decoys? Well, time-on-target attacks are VERY difficult to achieve and those decoys are going to be spread out over some time - and that window can be used by something like Fatah-II. But it might fail because different type of missiles are used against ballistic targets and a Fatah-II might be prioritized as a target by the S400.

The short answer is that this is a difficult task with no right answer.

The Iron dome analogy may not work here - While it is a VERY potent system - no operator of the S-400 is churning out all of its missiles.
There are firing patterns that can be manual and automated - but due to the cost of the missile its generally a modified program/manual that is run unless the operator/system has determined that it is the target.

Lets say the Indians decided to put a battery at Adampur(which puts it at risk from a lot of other things but for discussions sake). This lets it cover a large chunk of Pk airspace right up until Sargodha and secures most of its key bases in Kashmir too. I have given it protection via a Tungska and a QR-SAM Battery(in this case represented by a ground launched ASRAAM)


A fatah is placed at Rahwali (in this case I am using a CM-400 ground launched simulated) that lets it just touch the S-400:


When launched the "Fatah" is picked up by the combined Indian ADGE around 85nm from its intended target.

Technically while they are in the range of the S-400 missiles - based on various factors(curvature, target size, insufficient reflection from illuminators etc) the S-400 cannot engage it. I have set the S-400 to fire all missiles initially(not very realistic)

It is not until 34.5nm when the Fatah is in its terminal dive that the S-400's fire. It is overkill so the 2nd missiles take them out.

Now lets change the scenario to something more plausible -

the S-400 will fire 4 missiles at each target - from different batteries.
However, there are now 3 shooters - 2 Fatahs - one each at Rahwali and one south near Pattoki
And JF-17s firing off CM-400s from around Mangla -and the targeting sequence will be that the ground launched systems fire just a bit before the other CM-400s pass overhead.




5 out of 6 were shot down - but one made it through and the S-400 could not re-engage again - neither the Tungska nor the QR-SAM shot anything at the incoming missiles and the S-400 was hit.

Now here is the fun part - I ran this a 6 times in this scenario and in 4 cases the S-400 is able to take all of them out - 2 time it missed but one CM-400 malfunctioned out of 2 remaining so only 1 hit.

 

[Sparten]

But as we have seen in Russia-Ukraine war, Russian Subsonics have disappointed to large extent as they have failed to take out Patriots.

Ukr claims need to be considered with a bucket of salt.

 

[Sparten]

The Iron dome analogy may not work here - While it is a VERY potent system - no operator of the S-400 is churning out all of its missiles.
There are firing patterns that can be manual and automated - but due to the cost of the missile its generally a modified program/manual that is run unless the operator/system has determined that it is the target.

Lets say the Indians decided to put a battery at Adampur(which puts it at risk from a lot of other things but for discussions sake). This lets it cover a large chunk of Pk airspace right up until Sargodha and secures most of its key bases in Kashmir too. I have given it protection via a Tungska and a QR-SAM Battery(in this case represented by a ground launched ASRAAM)
View attachment 7151

A fatah is placed at Rahwali (in this case I am using a CM-400 ground launched simulated) that lets it just touch the S-400:
View attachment 7152

When launched the "Fatah" is picked up by the combined Indian ADGE around 85nm from its intended target.

Technically while they are in the range of the S-400 missiles - based on various factors(curvature, target size, insufficient reflection from illuminators etc) the S-400 cannot engage it. I have set the S-400 to fire all missiles initially(not very realistic)

It is not until 34.5nm when the Fatah is in its terminal dive that the S-400's fire. It is overkill so the 2nd missiles take them out.

Now lets change the scenario to something more plausible -

the S-400 will fire 4 missiles at each target - from different batteries.
However, there are now 3 shooters - 2 Fatahs - one each at Rahwali and one south near Pattoki
And JF-17s firing off CM-400s from around Mangla -and the targeting sequence will be that the ground launched systems fire just a bit before the other CM-400s pass overhead.

View attachment 7155


5 out of 6 were shot down - but one made it through and the S-400 could not re-engage again - neither the Tungska nor the QR-SAM shot anything at the incoming missiles and the S-400 was hit.

Now here is the fun part - I ran this a 6 times in this scenario and in 4 cases the S-400 is able to take all of them out - 2 time it missed but one CM-400 malfunctioned out of 2 remaining so only 1 hit.

Nice.
Did you consider the effects of ECM?

 

[GriffinsRule]

The Iron dome analogy may not work here - While it is a VERY potent system - no operator of the S-400 is churning out all of its missiles.
There are firing patterns that can be manual and automated - but due to the cost of the missile its generally a modified program/manual that is run unless the operator/system has determined that it is the target.

Lets say the Indians decided to put a battery at Adampur(which puts it at risk from a lot of other things but for discussions sake). This lets it cover a large chunk of Pk airspace right up until Sargodha and secures most of its key bases in Kashmir too. I have given it protection via a Tungska and a QR-SAM Battery(in this case represented by a ground launched ASRAAM)
View attachment 7151

A fatah is placed at Rahwali (in this case I am using a CM-400 ground launched simulated) that lets it just touch the S-400:
View attachment 7152

When launched the "Fatah" is picked up by the combined Indian ADGE around 85nm from its intended target.

Technically while they are in the range of the S-400 missiles - based on various factors(curvature, target size, insufficient reflection from illuminators etc) the S-400 cannot engage it. I have set the S-400 to fire all missiles initially(not very realistic)

It is not until 34.5nm when the Fatah is in its terminal dive that the S-400's fire. It is overkill so the 2nd missiles take them out.

Now lets change the scenario to something more plausible -

the S-400 will fire 4 missiles at each target - from different batteries.
However, there are now 3 shooters - 2 Fatahs - one each at Rahwali and one south near Pattoki
And JF-17s firing off CM-400s from around Mangla -and the targeting sequence will be that the ground launched systems fire just a bit before the other CM-400s pass overhead.

View attachment 7155


5 out of 6 were shot down - but one made it through and the S-400 could not re-engage again - neither the Tungska nor the QR-SAM shot anything at the incoming missiles and the S-400 was hit.

Now here is the fun part - I ran this a 6 times in this scenario and in 4 cases the S-400 is able to take all of them out - 2 time it missed but one CM-400 malfunctioned out of 2 remaining so only 1 hit.

In real world scenario, Ukraine fired ten or so Storm shadows of which 7 were intercepted but 3 got through and hit their ships at Crimean port back in September. Similar results in Oct and Dec too. Those would have been S400s too?

Saturation attacks seem to work with stealthy cruise missiles

 

[Sparten]

There is obviously a big gap in PA's rocket inventory since we have F1 & F2 GMRLS systems and then larger tactical ballistic missiles.

Do we have any Ballistic missile with a conventional role at all? As far as I know, all our BM's are nuclear armed with ASFC.

 

[Sparten]

The short answer is that this is a difficult task with no right answer.

In any real war with India, S400 sites will get nuked until they glow. What with the Khushab complex up and running and the Chashma reprocessing facility operational to make fissile pits we no longer have the shortage of fissile material we used to.
(And yes I know nuclear warfare has its own implications).
What I am worried about is sort of a "Ukraine war" for us. A non-nuclear conventional war against a non nuclear but well-armed opponent. Say Iran.
That would be an issue.

 

[Reichmarshal]

In any real war with India, S400 sites will get nuked until they glow. What with the Khushab complex up and running and the Chashma reprocessing facility operational to make fissile pits we no longer have the shortage of fissile material we used to.
(And yes I know nuclear warfare has its own implications).
What I am worried about is sort of a "Ukraine war" for us. A non-nuclear conventional war against a non nuclear but well-armed opponent. Say Iran.
That would be an issue.

Iran has dived head long into a war with isreal/u.s which eventually it will have to fight directly n the mullahs know it.

So Pakistan is least of its worries