Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[tsunset]

 

[Hack-Hook]

As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?​

Chances of a regional flare-up rest on the unclear intentions of Tehran and the groups it has nurtured
The dramatic first week of 2024 has tipped the scale towards those who say the daily diet of drone strikes, assassinations and maritime assaults will at some point combust into a major war across the Middle East.

But the likelihood of a regional conflagration turns on the unclear intentions of Iran and the contested degree of control it exercises over the numerous linked but autonomous groups it has nurtured over the past decade in five sovereign countries.


With so many variables, what looks like being a long war in Gaza increases the risk of miscalculation, accident or that one of the many players loses patience and lights the touch paper.

It is already hard to continue to describe the level of violence around US bases in Iraq, on the Lebanese border or the Red Sea as low intensity.

As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?

Chances of a regional flare-up rest on the unclear intentions of Tehran and the groups it has nurtured

www.theguardian.com

 

[strkyer1982]

As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?​

Chances of a regional flare-up rest on the unclear intentions of Tehran and the groups it has nurtured
The dramatic first week of 2024 has tipped the scale towards those who say the daily diet of drone strikes, assassinations and maritime assaults will at some point combust into a major war across the Middle East.

But the likelihood of a regional conflagration turns on the unclear intentions of Iran and the contested degree of control it exercises over the numerous linked but autonomous groups it has nurtured over the past decade in five sovereign countries.


With so many variables, what looks like being a long war in Gaza increases the risk of miscalculation, accident or that one of the many players loses patience and lights the touch paper.

It is already hard to continue to describe the level of violence around US bases in Iraq, on the Lebanese border or the Red Sea as low intensity.

View attachment 8392

As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?

Chances of a regional flare-up rest on the unclear intentions of Tehran and the groups it has nurtured

www.theguardian.com

With the succesful attack on Meron site which really tested the range of ATGMs they have (equivalent to Spike-LR range), It would completely change the situation if Iran made a Almas-NLOS version with approx 20km range, allow for deep attacks.

 

[Persian Gulf]

With the succesful attack on Meron site which really tested the range of ATGMs they have (equivalent to Spike-LR range), It would completely change the situation if Iran made a Almas-NLOS version with approx 20km range, allow for deep attacks.

Meron is c. 7-8km from the border, so we can assume c. 8km distance for the strikes

Noticeably, some of the ATGMs fell short of the target (others successfully hit the target), so they are being pushed to the edge (makes sense for upgraded Dehlavieh with 7-8km range)

Upgraded Almas with 10-20km range makes sense, hopefully Hezbollah has it up their sleeve but so far no evidence for it

 

[Persian Gulf]

USA struck PMU HQ in Baghdad with airstrikes, killing many top PMU commanders

Hezbollah struck Meron radar site c. 8km into Israel with ATGM today, claiming it to be the first part of their response to Israel assassination Saleh Arouri in Beirut.

To me, this is a weak response. Assassination vs material damage. Heart of Lebanon (Beirut) vs significant border town only 10km across the border (Meron).

 

[tsunset]

It seems they pushed the ATGM to its maximum limits

Usage of Falaq+Fajr-5 thermobaric and a pinch of F-110 would have mauled this place completely.

 

[tsunset]

Meron is c. 7-8km from the border, so we can assume c. 8km distance for the strikes

Noticeably, some of the ATGMs fell short of the target (others successfully hit the target), so they are being pushed to the edge (makes sense for upgraded Dehlavieh with 7-8km range)

Upgraded Almas with 10-20km range makes sense, hopefully Hezbollah has it up their sleeve but so far no evidence for it

I remind you that 10000+ NAFTONazionists soldiers got mauled since 7th october, without counting the civilians

Now compare this to the 1-5% estimate of 30k solduers of Qassam deaths and HZ is not that high

For the first time of the history the lives of zionists/whites got worth less than lives of West Asians, more NAFTONazionists will die and climb to 20000 mauled and more, these are also the first retaliations and CENTCOM are a bunch of Iran-paranoid people, they can tell whathever they want and use their F-15s, their Blackwater mercs will still die and they will never admit it, basic NAFTOWhiteoZionist manners.

 

[jauk]

As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?​

Chances of a regional flare-up rest on the unclear intentions of Tehran and the groups it has nurtured
The dramatic first week of 2024 has tipped the scale towards those who say the daily diet of drone strikes, assassinations and maritime assaults will at some point combust into a major war across the Middle East.

But the likelihood of a regional conflagration turns on the unclear intentions of Iran and the contested degree of control it exercises over the numerous linked but autonomous groups it has nurtured over the past decade in five sovereign countries.


With so many variables, what looks like being a long war in Gaza increases the risk of miscalculation, accident or that one of the many players loses patience and lights the touch paper.

It is already hard to continue to describe the level of violence around US bases in Iraq, on the Lebanese border or the Red Sea as low intensity.

View attachment 8392

As Middle East crisis grows, does Iran have control of its proxy forces?

Chances of a regional flare-up rest on the unclear intentions of Tehran and the groups it has nurtured

www.theguardian.com

Iran does not have ‘control’. That’s the whole point. The Resistance is a platform that gives independence of action while providing strategic alignment. It’s not a piss-poor master-slave relationship akin to ‘NATO’.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I remind you that 10000+ NAFTONazionists soldiers got mauled since 7th october, without counting the civilians

Now compare this to the 1-5% estimate of 30k solduers of Qassam deaths and HZ is not that high

For the first time of the history the lives of zionists/whites got worth less than lives of West Asians, more NAFTONazionists will die and climb to 20000 mauled and more, these are also the first retaliations and CENTCOM are a bunch of Iran-paranoid people, they can tell whathever they want and use their F-15s, their Blackwater mercs will still die and they will never admit it, basic NAFTOWhiteoZionist manners.

not sure where you are getting your numbers

> 100 Hezbollah martyrs with 10-20 IDF dead
Soleimani Fakhrizadeh Mousavi Mouhandis etc all martyred with no Americans/Israelis killed in direct response

our lives are still 100x cheaper

 

[tsunset]

not sure where you are getting your numbers

> 100 Hezbollah martyrs with 10-20 IDF dead
Soleimani Fakhrizadeh Mousavi Mouhandis etc all martyred with no Americans/Israelis killed in direct response

our lives are still 100x cheaper

Unless you are believing the 2000+ IDF deaths, Israeli have been killed at least 10x more than HZ/resistance/Iran

2000 IDF soldiers are acknowledge dead by IDF itself
Add to this 1200 mauled Israelis the 7th

I am talking about the whole resistance operations, not HZ vs IDF only

 

[Persian Gulf]

2000 IDF soldiers are acknowledge dead by IDF itself

source?

last I heard it was around 400-500 on October 7th and 100-200 since then

 

[tsunset]

source?

last I heard it was around 400-500 on October 7th and 100-200 since then

Israeli lies.


And again, this is if you believe those IDF claims, the death toll of IDF is thought to be way more than 5000, and given IDF propensity to lie, they even acknowledge each every day officers deaths, this is only in Gaza and IDF own claims

Any number that IDF says about its own soldiers deaths, multiply it by 5-10

500 is ridiculous, 500x10, 5000
They probably exaggerated their number of civilian deaths so i would give it 1000 deaths and 5000 IDF troops killed, in the whole region, not only in Gaza

253 butchered POWs/hostages is the only realistic figure

As for Hamas troops, this 1000 figure comes from IDF, not Hamas itself/others, you can probably divide this number by 5-10 also

Israeli troops have killed at least 1,000 Palestinian gunmen who infiltrated from Gaza in incursions that began at the weekend, and have reinforced all communities in Israel as hostilities spread to other fronts, the military said on Wednesday.

In quotes carried by Israel Hayom newspaper online, chief military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari also said that among Hamas targets destroyed in a Gaza counter-offensive was an advanced system for tracking aircraft.

Notice the "counter offensive" ridiculous claims and Wikipedia (owned by an Israeli zionist) taking IDF statements as credible sources

NAFTOWhiteoNazionist lives are effectively worth less than resistance fighters in this conflict

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israeli lies.

View attachment 8530
And again, this is if you believe those IDF claims, the death toll of IDF is thought to be way more than 5000, and given IDF propensity to lie, they even acknowledge each every day officers deaths, this is only in Gaza and IDF own claims

Any number that IDF says about its own soldiers deaths, multiply it by 5-10

you said "2000 IDF soldiers are acknowledge dead by IDF itself" but in your proof you say the IDF numbers are unreliable so we have to multiply them by 5-10

I don't disagree but I hope you realise you have not proven your claim. we should be more careful with throwing random numbers out and claiming IDF admitted to it when that's not the case

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iraqi PMU fire Paveh-class LACM to Haifa

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Reports of "difficult" event for invading IDF terrorists in Gaza, 27+ casualties rumoured

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[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah fires 60+ rockets into Israel; targets strategic Meron radar site

Hezbollah claims this is the first part of their initial response to the assassination of Hamas leader Arouri in Beirut by Israel.

Hezbollah targeted the strategic Meron radar site 8km inside Israel, using the longest range ATGM to date.

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Hezbollah also claimed targeting (and destroying) an Israeli tank near the settlement of Metula, and other video footage shows an ATGM strike against two IDF terrorists who are presumed liquidated.

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Rhetoric from Israel now suggests escalation with Hezbollah. This should be taken seriously. F-16 jets are doing mock bombing raids over Beirut on a daily basis.