Israeli missile defences (deployed) - assessment and strategies

[Persian Gulf]

I found a thread showing the number and positions of Israel's air defense systems before April 2024:

Thread by ELINTNews: Updated map of Israel's integrated air defence sys... - PingThread

Updated map of Israel's integrated air defence system based on public domain information: Systems included are: 5 Patriot PAC-2GEM+ batteries (70km range) 2 David's Sling batteries (160km range) 2 Arrow 2 batteries (90km range) 1 Arrow 3 battery (range classified)

web.archive.org

very interesting. Eilat only protected by one Patriot PAC-2 battery. Israel said they were removing Patriot from service recently.

confirms the theory that Eilat to Negev is the weak point for Israel, with defences concentrated in centre and north.

 

[Persian Gulf]

April: Israel intercepts c. 50 Iranian MRBMs

October: Israel intercepts c. 100-140 Iranian MRBMs

Running total of Arrow interceptors expended: 150-190. Once this number exceeds 300-400, Israel is in deep trouble. Just two more waves needed...

@Nuffle

 

[Nuffle]

April: Israel intercepts c. 50 Iranian MRBMs

October: Israel intercepts c. 100-140 Iranian MRBMs

Running total of Arrow interceptors expended: 150-190. Once this number exceeds 300-400, Israel is in deep trouble. Just two more waves needed...

@Nuffle

This could mean that three waves of 80-100 missiles is enough to completely saturate Israel's air defenses. If Iran were to prioritize attacking the Arrow radars between these three waves, it would be an even better advantage for the next waves and would clear the way for even older missiles to impact Israeli soil.

 

[Persian Gulf]

This could mean that three waves of 80-100 missiles is enough to completely saturate Israel's air defenses. If Iran were to prioritize attacking the Arrow radars between these three waves, it would be an even better advantage for the next waves and would clear the way for even older missiles to impact Israeli soil.

bingo... I estimate 50% of Israel's Arrow interceptors have been depleted already...

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

this video shows 9-10 David's Sling "Stunner" interceptors being launched, they all miss the incoming missile warheads, and then self-destruct

total failure of air defence! each interceptor costs $1 million

amazing video @Nuffle

 

[Farhas2000]

April: Israel intercepts c. 50 Iranian MRBMs

October: Israel intercepts c. 100-140 Iranian MRBMs

Running total of Arrow interceptors expended: 150-190. Once this number exceeds 300-400, Israel is in deep trouble. Just two more waves needed...

@Nuffle

A few questions

How many missiles that can reach Israel Iran has? I heard it's anywhere between 1500 to 3000 and I guess the average warhead weight is around 500kg. The videos such numbers would generate would surely be cinematic and impressive and the impact would be real and painful, but to put it in perspective, compared to how many targets Israel is capable of hitting in a day (around 2000 as shown in Lebanon), it pales a bit, so how much of a strategic impact is that?

It seems dozens of missiles passed through, but how many of those were actually intended to be intercepted? Recent satellite pictures didn't show many actually important hits besides a hangar that was hit directly, certainly not a complete destruction of the Nevatim airbase, and Israel reported 0 casualties (can we count on it?).

Also Israel apparently had known an attack was coming 3 hours in advance and knew it was imminent 15 minutes in advance, doesn't it allow Israel to fly all of its aircraft right before? I heard they use refueling aircraft to allow their aircrafts to loiter during that time. It allows the people to enter bunkers rather quickly, which could somehow explain 0 casualties.

How accurate are those missiles? in a few of the videos I saw, the missiles missed, hitting a road/missing the Mossad HQ by a few hundred meters/hitting near a residential building/hitting nearby some car driver.

Another factor is - can Iran defend those missiles when the real shit-show begins? and the factories that manufacture them? Hezbollah had a ton of missiles, even Israelis thought that Hezbollah would overwhelm the Iron Dome with 5000 daily rockets and rain down all of its rockets on Israel and that thousands would die, but it appears Israel through intelligence efforts and airstrikes was able to practically reduce Hezbollah's rocket fire capability considerably. I'm sure they can defend it more than Hezbollah, which apparently has nothing that could challenge Israeli aircraft, but can they?

 

[Nuffle]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

this video shows 9-10 David's Sling "Stunner" interceptors being launched, they all miss the incoming missile warheads, and then self-destruct

total failure of air defence! each interceptor costs $1 million

amazing video @Nuffle

It could be an Arrow 2 too.

 

[muhammed45]

This could mean that three waves of 80-100 missiles is enough to completely saturate Israel's air defenses. If Iran were to prioritize attacking the Arrow radars between these three waves, it would be an even better advantage for the next waves and would clear the way for even older missiles to impact Israeli soil.

Only one serious attack from missile silos like this will be more than enough to overwhelm every Zionist defense system

 

[Nuffle]

Only one serious attack from missile silos like this will be more than enough to overwhelm every Zionist defense system

View attachment 69485View attachment 69486View attachment 69487View attachment 69488

Is the recharge done automatically?

 

[muhammed45]

Is the recharge done automatically?

Yes, IRGC calls bases like that, the ballistic missile machine-gun. Missiles move on rails and are fired automatically one after the other.

Fully flexible. Reserved for Israel and American bases in the region.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It could be an Arrow 2 too.

doubt Arrow 2 is launched at that late stage for relatively low altitude interception

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

as we have been saying...

US fired 12 SM-3 interceptors = 1 years' production = $400 million !!

each Arrow-3 missile costs around $50 million ...

 

[UKBengali]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

as we have been saying...

US fired 12 SM-3 interceptors = 1 years' production = $400 million !!

each Arrow-3 missile costs around $50 million ...

This is absolutely ridiculous cost which basically means that the Zio-US cannot afford to procure more than some 100s of these missiles.

1000 Arrow-3 would cost no less than 50 billion US dollars.


This below site has Arrow-3 at 62 million US dollars each and look at the cost per NGI:

Missile Interceptors by Cost

This list compares the cost of different missile defense system interceptors per missile intercept. Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) $111,000,000 Ground...

missiledefenseadvocacy.org

@F-22Raptor

 

[Nuffle]

doubt Arrow 2 is launched at that late stage for relatively low altitude interception

The problem is the attempt to intercept and fail, and not try and still suffer the impact. I cannot exclude that it could be the David's Sling, but in this case, the late interception applies more to the David's Sling than to the Arrow 2, because the David's Sling has a minimum range of 40 km.

The Arrow 2, although the intercept altitude is in the layer above the David's Sling at about 50 km, its minimum range is lower. The Block 3 version of the Arrow 2 has already intercepted a target at an extremely low altitude in a test, according to the report. Even so, with the self-destruct technology that is designed to intercept with the fragments of the warhead to the closest point of the target (40-50 m) as the video demonstrates seems to suggest to me that it was the Arrow 2 in the images, besides that, it seems that the Arrow 2 only handles 14 simultaneous interceptions, which certainly occurred in this situation.

 

[retaxis]

At those prices, it would be cheaper for Israel to just let Iran bomb its empty sites than to shoot arrow3s at it. Be a different story if Iran was targeting population centres.