Israeli missile defences (deployed) - assessment and strategies

Nuffle said:
Did Iran analyze our posts? hahahaha
Click to expand...
ha

in case they are analysing again:
  • target one area instead of dispersing strikes across Israel (ideally Negev / Eilat again) - increase load on local ABM
  • start with unannounced MRBM strikes (<10 minutes from launch to impact) instead of UAVs that give 8 hour notice
  • strike in waves of 100 missiles, each 20-30 minutes after the last - ensuring the next wave arrives before the ABM systems can reload (Arrow takes 1 hour to reload)
Cheap Shahab-3 / Rezvan are good candidates for first wave (food for ABM depletion but still have to be intercepted due to high speed and large warhead), to be followed by more Emad / Ghadr / Kheibar Shekan in second wave. This should increase success rate substantially

ABM radars / launchers are good target for second wave. can include 10-20 Fattah-1 missiles aimed at Green Pine radar in second wave.
 
I have always said Israel is like another USA state
It's virtually the same as USA
You go against Israel you effectively at war with USA
They won't say this in public but behind the scenes every peice of USA intel real time trackers missle coverage finance Spares for equipment is at Israels disposal
Israel is the USA effectively
 
Persian Gulf said:
ha

in case they are analysing again:
  • target one area instead of dispersing strikes across Israel (ideally Negev / Eilat again) - increase load on local ABM
  • start with unannounced MRBM strikes (<10 minutes from launch to impact) instead of UAVs that give 8 hour notice
  • strike in waves of 100 missiles, each 20-30 minutes after the last - ensuring the next wave arrives before the ABM systems can reload (Arrow takes 1 hour to reload)
Cheap Shahab-3 / Rezvan are good candidates for first wave (food for ABM depletion but still have to be intercepted due to high speed and large warhead), to be followed by more Emad / Ghadr / Kheibar Shekan in second wave. This should increase success rate substantially

ABM radars / launchers are good target for second wave. can include 10-20 Fattah-1 missiles aimed at Green Pine radar in second wave.
Click to expand...
The American AN/TPY-2 X-band radar at Har Qeren in the Negev Desert(30°46'29.0"N 34°40'04.0"E) is also to be destroyed. It can discriminate real warheads and decoys by their reentry speed. Like the friend @Hassan Al-Somal says in this comment:

Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

A potential nuclear test is incoming with Russia and china backing it. Iranian are not stupid.
defencepk.com

In addition to Green Pine, AN/TPY-2 needs to be the main target of the attack.
 
Nuffle said:
The American AN/TPY-2 X-band radar at Har Qeren in the Negev Desert(30°46'29.0"N 34°40'04.0"E) is also to be destroyed. It can discriminate real warheads and decoys by their reentry speed. Like the friend @Hassan Al-Somal says in this comment:

Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

A potential nuclear test is incoming with Russia and china backing it. Iranian are not stupid.
defencepk.com

In addition to Green Pine, AN/TPY-2 needs to be the main target of the attack.
Click to expand...
Negev has weak ABM capability relative to central Israel, if Iran puts enough missiles to the job, it should be able to hit.

also it looks like the attack was more successful and the missiles much more precise than previously thought:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780161617474265149

Every ballistic missile that landed at Nevatim and Ramon airbase hit their intended target (by the looks of it, head-on). But, for “some reason”, they evidently carefully avoided hitting obviously high-priority targets (such as the 50 odd hardened shelters and ammunition revetments) and C4ISR structures.

Of the confirmed hits, the IRGC cratered: 1x Guard Tower2x ground vehicle repair depots1x transportation aircraft maintenance facility (probably where the one C-130 was dinged up)

Oh, and they dropped a ballistic missile on top of the base’s officer’s swimming pool/rec center. You can see screenshots close-ups of what was hit prior to the attack via google maps attached here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780162674719879662

@jauk @Immortals @Hack-Hook
 
Persian Gulf said:
Negev has weak ABM capability relative to central Israel, if Iran puts enough missiles to the job, it should be able to hit.

also it looks like the attack was more successful and the missiles much more precise than previously thought:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780161617474265149

Every ballistic missile that landed at Nevatim and Ramon airbase hit their intended target (by the looks of it, head-on). But, for “some reason”, they evidently carefully avoided hitting obviously high-priority targets (such as the 50 odd hardened shelters and ammunition revetments) and C4ISR structures.

Of the confirmed hits, the IRGC cratered: 1x Guard Tower2x ground vehicle repair depots1x transportation aircraft maintenance facility (probably where the one C-130 was dinged up)

Oh, and they dropped a ballistic missile on top of the base’s officer’s swimming pool/rec center. You can see screenshots close-ups of what was hit prior to the attack via google maps attached here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780162674719879662

@jauk @Immortals @Hack-Hook
Click to expand...
But this same author is questioning the methodology of this damage assessment. He doesn't seem very convinced about that.
 
Persian Gulf said:
ha

in case they are analysing again:
  • target one area instead of dispersing strikes across Israel (ideally Negev / Eilat again) - increase load on local ABM
  • start with unannounced MRBM strikes (<10 minutes from launch to impact) instead of UAVs that give 8 hour notice
  • strike in waves of 100 missiles, each 20-30 minutes after the last - ensuring the next wave arrives before the ABM systems can reload (Arrow takes 1 hour to reload)
Cheap Shahab-3 / Rezvan are good candidates for first wave (food for ABM depletion but still have to be intercepted due to high speed and large warhead), to be followed by more Emad / Ghadr / Kheibar Shekan in second wave. This should increase success rate substantially

ABM radars / launchers are good target for second wave. can include 10-20 Fattah-1 missiles aimed at Green Pine radar in second wave.
Click to expand...

Didn’t Iran use Shekan, Ghadr etc which failed to cause any substantial damage? What difference would they make in the future?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779527123729866779

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779527131447382017
 
Persian Gulf said:
Negev has weak ABM capability relative to central Israel, if Iran puts enough missiles to the job, it should be able to hit.

also it looks like the attack was more successful and the missiles much more precise than previously thought:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780161617474265149

Every ballistic missile that landed at Nevatim and Ramon airbase hit their intended target (by the looks of it, head-on). But, for “some reason”, they evidently carefully avoided hitting obviously high-priority targets (such as the 50 odd hardened shelters and ammunition revetments) and C4ISR structures.

Of the confirmed hits, the IRGC cratered: 1x Guard Tower2x ground vehicle repair depots1x transportation aircraft maintenance facility (probably where the one C-130 was dinged up)

Oh, and they dropped a ballistic missile on top of the base’s officer’s swimming pool/rec center. You can see screenshots close-ups of what was hit prior to the attack via google maps attached here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780162674719879662

@jauk @Immortals @Hack-Hook
Click to expand...
F35 base was the major target and they hit the base. Seems message sent loud and clear.
 
Why Israel cannot use Jericho missiles against Iran:

Sedot Mikha base can house some 25-50 #SSM.
This rather limited number will be held for nuclear warheads.
Use with conventional means would unveil this system in exchange for rather limited damage.
Iran opt for SSM (~ 1.000 in stock).
Israel opt for Airforce. Maybe a mistake

Production of Jericho msl so far (estimated):
  • Jericho I (Marcel Dassault MD 620): 13 (from France) plus ~35 (in Israel): 50
  • (1969-1982)Jericho II/II mod: 40-45
  • Jericho III: ca 25 (2010 – 2023) in gradually exchange for Jericho II
another weakness is that Jericho is NOT a "mobile system" using TELs. They are on trailers, which are also used to tow the (Shavit) msl to the pad right in front of the bunkers. There is no 2nd SSM base e.g. to operate surplus Jericho 2 or TELs elsewhere in the country.

Same (Israeli OSINT: "benreuter_IMINT") user estimates Israel has up to 300 Arrow-3 interceptors in total.

@Nuffle @Hack-Hook

TLDR: Israel has few Jericho missiles (c. 125), likely to be almost exclusively preserved for nuclear strikes, they use trailers, not mobile TELs, can only be launched from "Sedot Mikha base".

Sounds like a good target.

Limitations of Israeli SLCM:

another possibility would be to use a rather limited number of (conventional armed) "Popeye Turbo" from Dolphin submarines. They could fire them from the eastern Mediterranean Sea as well as from the Arabian Sea towards targets in western or southern Iran
https://twitter.com/benreuter_IMINT/status/1780533204153233861/photo/1
Israeli submarines are UNLIKELY to have conventionally armed Popeye Turbo cruise missiles.

"If I were forced to a "retaliation show" I would prefer to "unveil" the capability of a submarine strike than to unveil my Jerichos. In the end they might opt for yet another IAF strike in Lebanon"

Each Israeli submarine can carry a MAXIMUM of 4 Popeye Turbo cruise missiles. Negligible, with a conventional warhead.
 
harpy1 said:
I have always said Israel is like another USA state
It's virtually the same as USA
You go against Israel you effectively at war with USA
They won't say this in public but behind the scenes every peice of USA intel real time trackers missle coverage finance Spares for equipment is at Israels disposal
Israel is the USA effectively
Click to expand...
Yes another USA land far away from mainland USA....
 
Screenshot 2024-04-18 at 19.50.12.png

Arrow-3 launcher shows 3 interceptor missiles had been fired

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780251248513454324

Israel has c. 200 Arrow-2/3 interceptor missiles in total (100 deployed + 100 reserve). Slightly less than I had initially estimated. Israel claims to have intercepted c. 50 Iranian missiles, so a reasonable estimate is that Israel used c. 50 / 200 total Arrow missiles = c. 25% depletion of entire Arrow ABM inventory already? That is not good for Israel. @Nuffle @Hack-Hook
 
harpy1 said:
I have always said Israel is like another USA state
It's virtually the same as USA
You go against Israel you effectively at war with USA
They won't say this in public but behind the scenes every peice of USA intel real time trackers missle coverage finance Spares for equipment is at Israels disposal
Israel is the USA effectively
Click to expand...
One of the few differences is that Israelis enjoy free healthcare paid for by U.S tax payers who don't!
 
Even if the Israelis use all their missiles the USA will just resupply .
More than that if Iran launches another major attack I think Israel will try to take out the launching sites by air strikes
IE F35 and F15 combo

I do not think the west will join in strike operation for fear of alienating Muslim world

They will provide Sam air defense cover like before
 
harpy1 said:
Even if the Israelis use all their missiles the USA will just resupply .
More than that if Iran launches another major attack I think Israel will try to take out the launching sites by air strikes
IE F35 and F15 combo

I do not think the west will join in strike operation for fear of alienating Muslim world

They will provide Sam air defense cover like before
Click to expand...
US doesn't have its own inventory of Arrow interceptors unlike Iron Dome or Patriot. Arrow cannot be easily replaced at all
 
harpy1 said:
Even if the Israelis use all their missiles the USA will just resupply .
More than that if Iran launches another major attack I think Israel will try to take out the launching sites by air strikes
IE F35 and F15 combo

I do not think the west will join in strike operation for fear of alienating Muslim world

They will provide Sam air defense cover like before
Click to expand...
which launching site exactly
and f-15 inside Iran . like to see it happen
 
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