Stand off missles
Israeli missile defences (deployed) - assessment and strategies
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Hack-Hook
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And what is the range of that stand of missile
Persian Gulf
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3-4 Patriot batteries in Israel will be deactivated in coming months
now we know Israel does not have THAAD batteries, this leaves only Arrow (and maybe Patriot PAC-3 assuming only PAC-2 is being deactivated) to defend against Iranian MRBMs
Israel is estimated to have total inventory of only c. 250 Arrow ABMs ...
@Nuffle
Persian Gulf
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many areas in Israel are not covered by David's Sling missile defences ...
Yeah David sling isn’t fully operational. But it’s likely some type of backdoor deal between US/Israel where US will keep THAAD and US SM-3 cruisers in Israeli area to protect from any unlikely air aggression while they send these older PAC-2’s to Ukraine.
Ukraine getting beaten to a pulp right now. Another 2 BMs just hit Odessa today. Seems the Ukraine air defense is weakening in a lot of areas and needs support.
General Sandwhich indirectly seems to acknowledge the high Israeli interception rate during Iranian operation.
Persian Gulf
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4 batteries of David's Sling are currently operational
there are no THAAD in Israel
SM-3 is dependent on US Navy ships, I think most of them left the coast of Israel now
I never liked this boastful guy but at least here he seems to be grounded in reality which is good to see
Nevatim base high enough value target?
Persian Gulf
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we need to adjust some of these numbers (THAAD confirmed to not be in Israel and Israel to remove its 3-4 Patriot batteries and increase number of David's Sling batteries from 2 to 4):
Overview of deployed Israeli air defences:
--> Israel is extremely vulnerable to Iranian MRBM strikes. 3-4 more waves like before and they may be defenceless (except for US SM-3 which Israel itself claims had only 25% success rate!)
@Nuffle
Overview of deployed Israeli air defences:
- Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries
THAAD: unknown (0-1 batteries)Patriot (PAC-2): 3-4 batteries- David's Sling:
24 batteries - Iron Dome: 10 batteries
--> Israel is extremely vulnerable to Iranian MRBM strikes. 3-4 more waves like before and they may be defenceless (except for US SM-3 which Israel itself claims had only 25% success rate!)
@Nuffle
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It’s able to intercept MaRV due to its higher G force tolerant design allowing more maneuvering to counter MaRV penetration aids.
The caveat is what it terminal velocity of the MaRV? If it’s below Mach 7 then it has a good shot. Anything above needs to be Arrow3/4 ie Exo-atmospheric.
David Sling will allow Israel affordable economics on interceptor by retiring older PAC-2
Price of Patriot PAC-3 vs David's Sling
When considering the financial aspect, David's Sling appears more cost-effective. A single David's Sling fire unit is sold for EUR 317 million, significantly less than the average spent for a full Patriot PAC-3 battery.The cost of missiles for David’s Sling particularly the Stunner missile, is estimated to be considerably less than its Patriot counterpart. There's not much information on that matter. The MSE interceptor is believed to be priced at $3 million. Stunner is reportedly 3 to 4 times cheaper, and when the Pentagon was considering using it for the new Patriot PAAC-4, U.S. defense officials mentioned Stunner is only 20% of the price of MSE.
Three Reasons Why Finland Chose David's Sling Over Patriot Air Defense System | Defense Express
Comparison of sheer price and capabilities already point out the favorite but there's one no less important factor
en.defence-ua.com
Thus a David sling missile is estimated to cost between 600K - 1M per missile. This means that Israel will be able to fire 3-5 missiles per object for the cost of a single Patriot missile.
This is why I say Iran needs to focus on more higher tech strike packages. The enemy is evolving rapidly to counter the Iranian saturation strategy. This window for Iran will close slowly each year until it’s largely ineffective by 2035 and beyond.
There was as far back as 2019
In first, US deploys THAAD anti-missile system in Israel
The U.S. has deployed a highly advanced anti-missile defense system in Israel for the first time.
www.defensenews.com
And as recent as 6 months (10/23) US had deployed THAAD in “East Mediterranean” counter Iran.
Source:
The real key to THAAD is it’s 1000KM radar which can share information with Patriot/Arrow systems. The missile itself isn’t anything crazy. The key to any successful interception of BM is early detection and calculation of possible interception points.
They will be back if conflict returns.
Wish he would retire, but of course he can just collect a free paycheck doing nothing.
Persian Gulf
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- #131
40 tube rocket launcher (looks like Iranian Arash / grad rockets with 20-40km range)
Resistance sources claim less than half of the rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome. It is very interesting that Israel has stopped publishing Iron Dome interception rates. I remember in every previous war they would constantly publish incredible interception rates.
Israel likely has 300-400 Tamir interceptors deployed at the north at any one time (5 batteries). I used to think Hezbollah would need to fire 200+ rockets simultaneously to deplete the interceptors but now it seems even smaller launches of 20-60 rockets are having acceptable success rates (at least in the most northern settlements) - Israel's ability to intercept rockets/drones in the north has been significantly and noticeably degraded. 800+ ATGMs and 3000+ rockets fired by Hezbollah so far. Systematic destruction of Israeli surveillance bases/assets across the border and wide scale damage across Zionist settlements near the Lebanese border (60,000+ settlers have fled their homes in the north already).
Larger launches will be needed for better defended areas such as Naharriya, Akka and Haifa but Hezbollah also has 72 tube launcher vehicles.
As some resistance sources claimed before this conflict, the Iron Dome is irrelevant in a conflict with Hezbollah.
Persian Gulf
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The US sent a THAAD system to Israel in 2019 but Israeli sources reported that it was removed since then and did not play any role in the recent strikes. Israel already had the THAAD radar (TPY-2), but it doesn't seem Israel has any faith in Patriot systems for ABM role hence they are removing them all from service (and the Green Pine / Super Pine radars for Arrow have a similar capability to TPY-2). In any event, there are not enough THAAD launchers for Israel but this could obviously change in the event of a full blown war between Iran-Israel.There was as far back as 2019
In first, US deploys THAAD anti-missile system in Israel
The U.S. has deployed a highly advanced anti-missile defense system in Israel for the first time.
And as recent as 6 months (10/23) US had deployed THAAD in “East Mediterranean” counter Iran.
Source:
The real key to THAAD is it’s 1000KM radar which can share information with Patriot/Arrow systems. The missile itself isn’t anything crazy. The key to any successful interception of BM is early detection and calculation of possible interception points.
When he says "drunken boxer" I assume he means it doesn't have a dedicated ABM capability and can't be relied upon for that, even if it theoretically can help with some late stage terminal interceptions. David's Sling was simply not designed to intercept medium range ballistic missiles (regardless of their flight profile). it was designed to intercept long range (Hezbollah) rockets, cruise missiles and short range ballistic missiles (fired from up to 200-300km away, i.e. Fateh class SRBM fired by Hezbollah).
(Iron Beam once operational) - Iron Dome - David's Sling - Arrow-2/3 is their multilayered missile defence shield. Can be supplemented by Patriot and THAAD.
Persian Gulf
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Iron Dome 'Tamir' interceptors have 75km range. This means Iron Dome batteries in north Israel can't help intercept anything in Netanya or south of it (including Tel Aviv). Iron Dome in Haifa cannot cover Tel Aviv. Iron Dome in Tel Aviv cannot cover Haifa (or vice versa), or the Gaza envelop or Beer Sheva.
--> dispersion of Iron Dome batteries
assume (optimistically for Israel) 5 batteries deployed in the north covering Netanya-Haifa-Akka-Nahariyya-Safed-Tiberias-Golan Heights. this leaves only 5 batteries for Tel Aviv and Jerusalem (likely to take 2-3 batteries alone), Beer Sheva, Sderot Ashkelon and the rest of the Gaza envelope, and Eilat. so 5 batteries north of Tel Aviv is already a lot and leaves the rest of Israel thinly covered. Netanya/Haifa to the occupied Golan is >80km so there will be dispersion even between these 5 batteries in the north, leaving at most 4 batteries covering Haifa at any one time.
each Iron Dome battery carries up to 80 interceptors = up to 320 Tamir interceptors deployed covering Haifa at any one time (400 interceptors north of Tel Aviv in total).
if the conflict escalates, a simple simultaneous barrage from 5 of the 72 tube launcher trucks shown by Hezbollah could deplete all interceptors protecting Haifa (only 35-50km from south Lebanon). assuming 50% land in open areas and not intercepted, 2:1 interceptor to rocket ratio, and Iron Dome reload time of 20 minutes. that gives Hezbollah a 20 minute window to launch drones and rockets into Haifa with no Iron Dome protection (David's Sling would help but only 4 batteries of these are deployed and they are much more expensive than Iron Dome).
after reload, further barrages of 5 x 72 rockets could be launched to repeat the process, depleting Iron Dome inventories and causing severe AD fatigue.
also worth noting in the 2006 war that Israel was not able to stop or even significantly reduce the rate of rocket fire by Hezbollah (averaged 120 per day). IDF admitted it only destroyed 100 / 12,000 Hezbollah Katyusha launchers in 2006. Hezbollah was estimated to have 13,000 rockets in 2006, today it is estimated to have 150,000-200,000, so a daily firing rate of 1500-2000+ rockets seems plausible. that is equivalent to 50-70% of Hamas' massive initial rocket strikes on October 7th every single day for 100 days. Hezbollah also has local manufacturing capabilities to resupply inventories that are much more widespread and survivable than anything in Gaza, not to mention large borders with Syria for resupplies.
in short, in a total war, everything north of Tel Aviv would quickly become unliveable for the Zionist settlers.
--> dispersion of Iron Dome batteries
assume (optimistically for Israel) 5 batteries deployed in the north covering Netanya-Haifa-Akka-Nahariyya-Safed-Tiberias-Golan Heights. this leaves only 5 batteries for Tel Aviv and Jerusalem (likely to take 2-3 batteries alone), Beer Sheva, Sderot Ashkelon and the rest of the Gaza envelope, and Eilat. so 5 batteries north of Tel Aviv is already a lot and leaves the rest of Israel thinly covered. Netanya/Haifa to the occupied Golan is >80km so there will be dispersion even between these 5 batteries in the north, leaving at most 4 batteries covering Haifa at any one time.
each Iron Dome battery carries up to 80 interceptors = up to 320 Tamir interceptors deployed covering Haifa at any one time (400 interceptors north of Tel Aviv in total).
if the conflict escalates, a simple simultaneous barrage from 5 of the 72 tube launcher trucks shown by Hezbollah could deplete all interceptors protecting Haifa (only 35-50km from south Lebanon). assuming 50% land in open areas and not intercepted, 2:1 interceptor to rocket ratio, and Iron Dome reload time of 20 minutes. that gives Hezbollah a 20 minute window to launch drones and rockets into Haifa with no Iron Dome protection (David's Sling would help but only 4 batteries of these are deployed and they are much more expensive than Iron Dome).
after reload, further barrages of 5 x 72 rockets could be launched to repeat the process, depleting Iron Dome inventories and causing severe AD fatigue.
also worth noting in the 2006 war that Israel was not able to stop or even significantly reduce the rate of rocket fire by Hezbollah (averaged 120 per day). IDF admitted it only destroyed 100 / 12,000 Hezbollah Katyusha launchers in 2006. Hezbollah was estimated to have 13,000 rockets in 2006, today it is estimated to have 150,000-200,000, so a daily firing rate of 1500-2000+ rockets seems plausible. that is equivalent to 50-70% of Hamas' massive initial rocket strikes on October 7th every single day for 100 days. Hezbollah also has local manufacturing capabilities to resupply inventories that are much more widespread and survivable than anything in Gaza, not to mention large borders with Syria for resupplies.
in short, in a total war, everything north of Tel Aviv would quickly become unliveable for the Zionist settlers.
No That’s not what it means. It means it tries to imitate the capabilities of a interceptor with thruster ability by instead using its higher G force maneuvering to its advantage especially in lower atmosphere HTK scenarios.
Not correct. You are using a mistranslation by certain misinformed press writers.
It’s interception range is 200-300KM which is standard for any medium tier defense system. That’s like saying 15 Khordad or Bavar cannot interception a BM because their missiles (Sayyad) have a range of 200-300KM and thus can only intercept missiles fired from 300KM away (LOL).
Like I said 150-300KM is pretty standard operating range for most AD systems that have multi engagement capability. It’s the dedicated ABM shields (THAAD, Arrow 3/4, S-300VM) that have longer range capabilities do to their role being BM interceptors. But also much higher cost per interceptor and limited use.
As long as the targeting radar can detect the RV, then David’s sling can be used in HTK mode inside the atmosphere and will have favorable G force maneuverability than Patriot missile that is designed for interception in upper atmosphere
Nuffle
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I found a thread showing the number and positions of Israel's air defense systems before April 2024:
Thread by ELINTNews: Updated map of Israel's integrated air defence sys... - PingThread
Updated map of Israel's integrated air defence system based on public domain information: Systems included are: 5 Patriot PAC-2GEM+ batteries (70km range) 2 David's Sling batteries (160km range) 2 Arrow 2 batteries (90km range) 1 Arrow 3 battery (range classified)
web.archive.org
Updated map of Israel's integrated air defence system based on public domain information:
Systems included are:
5 Patriot PAC-2GEM+ batteries (70km range)
2 David's Sling batteries (160km range)
2 Arrow 2 batteries (90km range)
1 Arrow 3 battery (range classified)
Patriot PAC-2GEM+ batteries located at:
(1) Safed air defence site
(2) Haifa air defence site
(3) Palmachim airbase
(4) Dimona nuclear facility
(5) Eilat air defence site
Maximum engagement range is 70km
2 David's Sling batteries located at:
(1) Ein Shemer airfield
(2) Safed air defence site
Maximum engagement range is 160km
2 Arrow 2 batteries located at:
(1) Ein Shemer airfield
(2) Sdot Micha missile base
Maximum engagement range is 90km
1 Arrow 3 battery located at:
(1) Sdot Micha missile base
Maximum engagement range speculated to be 2000+km but nothing confirmed and so not plotted.
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