Bengal71
Trusted Member
That will be the easiest task.
Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked
- Thread starter hussain0216
- Start date
That will be the easiest task.
j_hungary
Professional
Again, the issue here is US Involvement, if US is involved, that mean Japan will get involved. There is no other way, because Japan, especially Iwo Jima Island chain is A LOT closer to Taiwan than anywhere US had in the region (Guam, Mariana and the Philippine) The only way a US direct involvement make sense is China attack US bases in Japan otherwise it's pointless if the Chinese attack Guam and get US into the fight. If you let the US base in Japan live, you probably shouldn't draw the US into the fight.
US is not going to just lose 8 warships, I don't think anyone here said so, even the CSIS war game said US is going to lose 2 dozen of ship, in most game, 2 US fleet become combat ineffective (>75% casualty).
And the reason why most wargame favor the US is because US and Taiwan is on the defense, again, China does not have enough asset to cover the entire Taiwan, and you will expect US brought the war on multiple front, that is the issue, because if the war is contained within Taiwan strait, China may have a chance, but there are no way if US is directly involved, they will just fight close to Chinese home, you are going to see multiple direct effort from multiple axis for US to fight, and then there are also going to be multiple indirect effort (from international sanction to embargoing China from outside China sphere of influence)
That is the reason why China will most likely lose a war if they fight the US, it's not because those game put the US is favourable condition, trust me, they aren't not with the game I myself played in.
j_hungary
Professional
Dude, since when Air Force play a serious role back in the 50s?
You are talking about a 300km fronts, and you have less than 100,000 troop manning it, you are going to need nuke to plug a gap this big, this is not going to work in Ukraine for the Russian to depends on air power alone on the initial phase, what make you think aircraft back in the 50s can make any difference?
That is the same issue the UN force had back in Korea, or do you think Ukrainian equipment is superior to that of Russia (at the beginning of the war) so the Russian can't offset with their own Airforce and Tank?
Beijingwalker
Banned
If so, that would mean Russia and North Korea are involved, both are Japan's arch enemies which have ongoing island disputes with Japan.
North Korea always shoots missiles over Japan and Russia's strategic bombers regularly circle Japan.
KingQamaR
Elite Member
The biggest flaw in the Western theory is this: ships don't go through the Strait of Malacca because that is the ONLY way to get from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Oceon.
No. They go through that Strait because it is the EASIEST way to get from one to the other.
There is also the entire Indonesian
Archipelago.
Ships don't go that route because it is longer and, therefore, more expensive.
Put a blockade in the Strait of Malacca and that is no longer true, and so ships will simply stop using the Strait of Malacca and switch to using the routes through Indonesia.
No. They go through that Strait because it is the EASIEST way to get from one to the other.
There is also the entire Indonesian
Archipelago.
Ships don't go that route because it is longer and, therefore, more expensive.
Put a blockade in the Strait of Malacca and that is no longer true, and so ships will simply stop using the Strait of Malacca and switch to using the routes through Indonesia.
Mero
Registered Member
The first move China should make is against the dollar. Go to a gold/silver backed Yuan. Get nations to support international trade in gold and silver, not dollars. Don't go cashless, cashless/digital is the agenda of the Anglos. Keep paper money, Chinese invented paper money, that is your invention. Don't replace it for Anglo digital currencies.
If Trump moves against China economically for going to gold and or silver, then threaten to invade Taiwan. Use the Taiwan invasion as a leverage to support other means to defeat the Anglos. Definitely defeat the Anglos. And use a Taiwan invasion as part of that. Not the only thing.
Mero
Registered Member
In 2006-2012, the entire internet of resistance against the Masons was into the full realization that returning to gold and silver as money destroys their rigged dollar system, and since - the rigged bitcoin system. Going to gold and silver collapses the Masonic house of cards.
liuzhengdong
Registered Member
In World War II, the U.S. Allied forces relied on their air force to defeat the German Army. The U.S. Army equipped with M4 simply cannot compete with the German Army equipped with Tiger and Panther tanks.
The number of troops stationed on both sides on the 300-kilometer front is one million
The failure of Russia's attack on Kiev was mainly due to Ukraine's use of advanced portable weapons provided by Western allies to gain an advantage in street fighting, the poor performance of Russia's logistics and equipment, the failure of the Russian Air Force to achieve air superiority, the rigidity of Russian military command, and Russia's military suffering during the siege of major cities. Attrition, these attacks were unsuccessful. The Russian army achieved significant results only in the south.
Han Patriot
Registered Member
OOO ok from destroying coastal Chinese cities to destroying coastal cities facing Taiwan, to destroying certain assets within those cities. Your circle is getting smaller and smaller mate. HAHAHAHAHAHA. Have you come to a realization on your ignorance? Dude, There are roughly 10 large cities facing Taiwan. Most don't even have airports, most ammunitions and missiles are produced in Sichuan 1000km away, major naval yards in guangzhou, Dalian and Shanghai. So tell me wtf are you attacking? Unless you are stupid enough to just blow up buildings for fun, and if 100 AB used up all their missiles, what are you going to use to defend against our fighters and ships? I am assuming all your VLS are used for Tomahawks since you want to DESTROY our cities right? LOL. That is also assuming none of our radars, ADs are working, also assuming NONE of our naval assets are going to attack. We will just tie our hands up.
Doesn't matter termite or ants. The maximum damage radius is 20m. Our major air bases are not even located that near Taiwan for obvious reasons. Duh!
You were saying? LOL. A1 identifying isn't rocket science mate.
Awww, do you want to start our old debate which you lost?LOL Remember you flunked out of IT and went into some arts degree. LOL.
Definitely more than the US in one day mate. I saw a video, they still manually attach missile parts. lol
A simple houthi warning sent the insurance rates up the roof in the Mid East, and they stopped the lines for a few weeks . So the Iraqis and Afghanis could do a naval blockade? LOLOL.
Maersk will deliver to a warzone under naval blockade? My uncle works in Maersk and they stopped delivering to Ukraine when Russia blockaded Odessa. Stop talking if you don't know jacksht.
Son, I know exactly how it works. When there is a naval blockade with the threat of sinking, the insurance won't cover it, understand! No liners with their right mind will deliver to Taiwan. Even if you get one or two CIA fronts to deliver, how are you going to feed 20 mil people?
Are you stupid or something, even one missile will punch a hole into a ship but due to ballasting tanks, it won't sink easily, you need a few more destroyed. Quick google ballast tanks. LOL. I build ships for a living mate, again don't talk about something you don't understand. You don't need to punch the same place twice dimwit.
"The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates."
So Russian missiles using an outdate unprecise glonass is now compared to the worlds most precise gps system? Failiure could be anything from not hitting the target to flying off the course to exploding mid air. So a guesstimate is now the official number? Even let's say we assume 50% failure rate, 100 missile boats off the coast with 8 missiles will still hit the target with 4 missiles each, 3 missiles is enough to sink your Burket, then we use DF21 to sink your carriers, fine one is not enough, we use 3 DF21, is it enought? LOL
Which is exactly my point, you were talking as if US with a bunch of destroyers and carriers is gonna be the top dog in this conflict. When combined together, missile boats, covrvettes, frigates becomes lethal. Quantity is a quality by itself, imagine a barrage of missiles against your CBG. 1 missle boat can sink 1 Burke. Understand?
You think only you have subs? You know the difference between a nuclear and diesel sub is just the endurance right other than the radiation emitted So again, a diesel sub is lethal for this conflict. Why do we have to chase the US, we just fight you within a 400km max distance from our coast on the east side, 200km Southern, Northern and Western Side. The most vulnerable would be the Eastern side but all major Taiwanese cities are located on the Western side and you have a mountain range in the middle. We just need to blockade you understand near major ports. Hey you think you need to blockade every inch of the coast numb numb. You blockade key ports and landing areas. Do you even understand what a blockade is? Gosh!
OMG, you blockade ports and key areas, not the whole length of the island. For the straits is even easier, your ship with their anti ship missiles and radar is set in strategic areas to cover the area, are you thinking you need to park ships side by side for the whole 200km lenght? LOLOL.
How many times do I have to repeat this, no dimwit in China is going to sail in 100s of ships without first clearing off the defenses. Oww, now you know how to calculate the time taken after I told you that it takes 10 hours for US to send in reinforcements. LOLOL. You must've been thinking Okinawa is so near, Guam is so near on the map. There is already a Taiwanese report on all possible beaches PLA might land in, you don't have to repeat it like a parrot. Why do you think we have drone carriers now? You think it is for fun, it is to bust those remnant coastal bunkers mate. You are forgetting about the thousands of fishing boats we have. Imagine arming each with Javelin type missiles, drones, each can carry 25 soldiers. 25 x 1000 is 25'000 troops mate, they can sneak in on any coastal areas. Have you thought about that? Do you know every single fishing boat is registered with Chinese Naval Militia? Why do you think that's the case？They report directly to the Navy in times of war. Why do you think US is worried about China building car carriers? Even container ships can be disguised? So many unconventional ways to transport troops mate. I believe the attack will be hybrid. First wave will be missile barrage, artillery barrage from the coast, then drones and stealth fighters to attack the air defenses. Then once the AD is cleared, bombers/fighter come in, then drones. Then special forces to secure and destroy key points, then large scale amphibious assault, combined with civillian forces. That does not include our fifth column in Taiwan, the 20% unification supporters, our sleeper cells in the Taiwanese military who swore to uphold the ROC aka Republic of CHINA.
We can't shoot artillery over Taiwan? You do know MLRS is a type of artillery, right? LOL
Our MLRS is 400km range laser guided with Beidou. Those are cheap rockets when compared to cruise missiles. Read above on the sequence. Again, we can outproduce anybody on earth, this is war exactly like Ukraine, it depends on the the weapons production rate and I believe US will cheer on exactly like in Ukraine. You guys are cheerleaders afterall.
What minefield? A beach with mines is not a minefield? To destroy our CITIES, you don't have to land your troops? OOO yah, your definition got smaller and smaller, it is now destroying some targets in a city. hahahahahahaha. Yes, only Taiwan is prepared and we are not? Until a few post ago, I bet you didn't even know how to calculate nautical travel times. LOL, am I right?
Taiwan is a near peer? NEAR PEER? FFS, WHAT DO YOU SMOKE!!! OMG, your stupidity amazed me. Explain to me how Taiwan is a near peer.
Russia got attack near Crimea off the coast of Ukraine. You think you can send your speedboat with 1 tonne of explosive 200km from the coast genius? Yes and why not, you think they can fly in from Poland like in Ukraine? hhahahaha. Naha air base is 650km from Taipei FFS.
I am not sure how your logics work, how are you going to defend Taiwan if you are OUT of the STRAITS? How are you going to DESTROY our cities if you are not in the STRAITS? Why do you think in 1996, 2 carriers were IN THE STRAITS? And now your not even in the straits when we did the recent blockade? Your antiship missiles can fly through mountain ranges? hahahahahahahaha
Eh, you were saying you could DESTROY our COASTAL CITIES. Your tone is different now eh. So now you realise your absurdity. Either end of our coast is still 200km from our coast well within ASM and AD cover genius.
Hey dude, do you have a comprehension problem? Proper logistic is not a WAITING game, you prepare well before the stocks deplete genius. Who the heck waits until their stocks to deplete before producing new shit? LOL. Keep twisting, caught you with your pants down multiple times now.
You said, you can attack our cities and detroy it. So going by your logic, why arent you attacking Moscow? Or St P? Ukraine is getting invaded as we speak mate, why so chicken? LOL
Who said it was a cake walk, you are the one talking as if US stronk and can destroy our cities and Navy and shit like that. Now you start to realise it aint the case right?
Now to prevent you from veering off course:
1) Explain to me how Taiwan is a near peer?
2) Explain to me how you can destroy our strategic targets when our major military assets are not even near the Fujian coast for the obvious reasons?
3) How is US going to sustain the war when Okinawa is 10 hours away, 650kms away.
4) How is Taiwan going to get supplies when 70% of their food is imported? With only 3 nuke plants, once LNG is cut, they are as good as fked.
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Beijingwalker
Banned
No one knows how many Taiwan high rankings military officers secretly work for PRC.
SolarWarden
Trusted Member
No one knows how many PLA high rankings military officers secretly work for ROC.
China says it uncovered over 1,000 Taiwanese espionage cases in recent years
China says it uncovered over 1,000 Taiwanese espionage cases in recent years
Country’s State Security Ministry says it destroyed ‘large number of spy intelligence networks’ - Anadolu Ajansı
www.aa.com.tr
DDG-80
Trusted Member
Thoughts on Carriers vs China
Here’s my take on the carrier debate with China in mind:
If the UK sells one of its carriers to Australia, it changes the balance in the Pacific big time. Imagine this:
Now throw in another U.S. carrier and 2-3 Indian carriers in the Indian Ocean. These sit smack on China's supply lines and chokepoints like the Malacca Strait. The result? China’s ability to project global power gets wrecked. Their dream of rivaling the U.S. Navy goes poof.
China’s stuck within the South China Sea and their infamous "Nine-Dash Line." If they venture out, they face overwhelming allied naval power, all while avoiding China’s hypersonic missiles (DF-21, DF-26). Allied carriers don't even need to enter those ranges.
China’s strength is undeniable inside the "Nine-Dash Line." But if you blockade them outside their AA/AD zones, it’s lights out for their trade routes and naval ambitions. No need to even fight in the South China Sea or mainland China.
Then there’s the submarine game:
China might dominate near its coasts, but step outside their comfort zone, and they’re surrounded. The combined carrier and sub forces of AUKUS, Quad, and allies make it nearly impossible for them to project power globally.
Here’s my take on the carrier debate with China in mind:
If the UK sells one of its carriers to Australia, it changes the balance in the Pacific big time. Imagine this:
- 2 Japanese carriers (likely 2 more coming).
- 1 Australian carrier (if they get the UK’s).
- At least 5 U.S. carriers in the region after their Pacific realignment.
Now throw in another U.S. carrier and 2-3 Indian carriers in the Indian Ocean. These sit smack on China's supply lines and chokepoints like the Malacca Strait. The result? China’s ability to project global power gets wrecked. Their dream of rivaling the U.S. Navy goes poof.
China’s stuck within the South China Sea and their infamous "Nine-Dash Line." If they venture out, they face overwhelming allied naval power, all while avoiding China’s hypersonic missiles (DF-21, DF-26). Allied carriers don't even need to enter those ranges.
- U.S. stealth refueling drones and long-range tankers make this possible. They operate from safe rear zones, letting F-35s and other jets strike PLAN forces from a distance.
- Meanwhile, PLAN aircraft, non-stealth bombers, and tankers have to fight far from their own shores. And when they run into a wall of superior allied F-35s, it’s game over.
China’s strength is undeniable inside the "Nine-Dash Line." But if you blockade them outside their AA/AD zones, it’s lights out for their trade routes and naval ambitions. No need to even fight in the South China Sea or mainland China.
Then there’s the submarine game:
- PLAN’s 58 submarines are facing:
- 22 Japanese subs.
- 5 Australian subs (more coming via AUKUS).
- 20+ U.S. SSNs in peacetime (and more in conflict).
- 2 Philippine subs (they’re building up).
- 6 Taiwanese subs (with new additions coming).
- 14+ South Korean subs (always underestimated).
China might dominate near its coasts, but step outside their comfort zone, and they’re surrounded. The combined carrier and sub forces of AUKUS, Quad, and allies make it nearly impossible for them to project power globally.
Beijingwalker
Banned
Espionage is very different from changing sides in a war, do you know how ROC landed in Taiwan?No one knows how many PLA high rankings military officers secretly work for ROC.
China says it uncovered over 1,000 Taiwanese espionage cases in recent years
China says it uncovered over 1,000 Taiwanese espionage cases in recent years
Country’s State Security Ministry says it destroyed ‘large number of spy intelligence networks’ - Anadolu Ajansı
Viet
VIP Member
the russian navy is near coma. at most from time to time they play the role as missiles carriers to bomb ukraine infra. russian ships fail to blockade ukraine ports. ukraine ships grains, foods almost unhindered.
about China, the most likely scenario is Xi Jinping will only start the war if he smells weakness in Taiwan and US sentiments. otherwise Ccp will never risk a war. about war, most people sit on a warm sofa and bla on wars. once war is underway everything is unpredictable.
liuzhengdong
Registered Member
In the Indian Ocean, China is more willing to join Pakistan in attacking New Delhi.
China's anti-submarine forces: 40 054A frigates, 50 056A frigates, and hundreds of long-range anti-submarine drones.
Chinese submarines only need to lie in ambush silently on the seabed, waiting for the US allied submarines to enter the trap
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