Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

[PakFactor]

Can USA beat China in a war? Probably not.

Why you ask?

China has 1.41 billion people. USA only has 333 million people.

China has a larger Navy than USA does. Enough said.

Gone are the days of American dominance.

One of the two sides has a sharper knife to cut through. Experience and combined command of forces favor the American coalition.

The Chinese should have been bleeding the Americans in various combat theaters over the last two decades. One last golden opportunity was presented in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict, and it passed that up.

 

[KingQamaR]

The US is already expanding its surface fires to Japan and Philippines. Combined with USN, USAF air and undersea domain fires, the PLAN WILL be destroyed.

Philippines, Japan to host advanced US missile units in move to counter China

The Philippine Army has confirmed the deployment, saying the plan is at its early planning stage.

amp.scmp.com

South Korea and the Philippines have said they would not intervene in a war with China about Taiwan. South Korea says US forces in it's territory are there to protect it from North Korea and will not use their bases to resupply Incase of conflict with China. Philippines have said something similar.

 

[KingQamaR]

Iran showed that good ballistic missiles can slot through any ABM defence.

Chinese missile tech is probably the best in the world.

China have got missile range of all those US bases surrounding it.

 

[lightning f57]

To quote the war game

U.S. and allied forces possess superior technology and training, which allows them to effectively counter Chinese advancements.

the deployment of stealth aircraft, such as the F-35, and advanced anti-ship missiles plays a crucial role in neutralizing Chinese naval and air assets.

the integration of these advanced systems enables U.S. and allied forces to establish control over the air and sea domains, which is essential for the successful defense of Taiwan.

Some massive assumptions there thinking this will be such a big force multiplier and the Chinese seem to be using paper planes and ships. No wonder the US wins 9/10 times.

EDIT: I would say however amphibious assaults are very tricky, that will pose a big challenge for China and then there is the uncertainty even if it is successful will there be an insurgency to deal with.

 

[F-22Raptor]

To quote the war game

U.S. and allied forces possess superior technology and training, which allows them to effectively counter Chinese advancements.

the deployment of stealth aircraft, such as the F-35, and advanced anti-ship missiles plays a crucial role in neutralizing Chinese naval and air assets.

the integration of these advanced systems enables U.S. and allied forces to establish control over the air and sea domains, which is essential for the successful defense of Taiwan.

Some massive assumptions there thinking this will be such a big force multiplier and the Chinese seem to be using paper planes and ships. No wonder the US wins 9/10 times.

EDIT: I would say however amphibious assaults are very tricky, that will pose a big challenge for China and then there is the uncertainty even if it is successful will there be an insurgency to deal with.

It’s not an assumption at all. The US has the most sophisticated technology, especially in the air and undersea domain, and its ability to integrate offensive and defensive fires at scale is unmatched. The US has many years of combat experience. The USN has seen extensive combat in the last year alone against Iranian weapon systems.

China has zero experience

 

[F-22Raptor]

China have got missile range of all those US bases surrounding it.

The US and Japan have around 8 batteries of Patriots on Okinawa alone. Somewhere between 50-60 Patriot launchers.

We’ve seen how effective one Patriot battery has been in Kyiv. Downed hundreds of Russian ballistic missiles and it’s STILL operational today.

 

[lightning f57]

It’s not an assumption at all. The US has the most sophisticated technology, especially in the air and undersea domain, and its ability to integrate offensive and defensive fires at scale is unmatched. The US has many years of combat experience. The USN has seen extensive combat in the last year alone against Iranian weapon systems.

China has zero experience

US tech maybe better but the assumption they are using is grossly exaggerating how much better it will be. Thats why those numbers given can only be taken for what they are someones/groups hypothesis.

USN taking on the houthis is experience sure but it will be nothing like taking on a near peer like China.

 

[SolarWarden]

It’s not an assumption at all. The US has the most sophisticated technology, especially in the air and undersea domain, and its ability to integrate offensive and defensive fires at scale is unmatched. The US has many years of combat experience. The USN has seen extensive combat in the last year alone against Iranian weapon systems.

China has zero experience

The most important is the electronic battlespace picture and nobody comes close to US in dominating that realm. Naval air conflict against celestials is what US Generals and Admirals have always dreamed of.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Today, Huawei doesn’t even crack the top 5 in global smartphone shipments. Globally it’s a dead company.

It’s only alive due to Chinese state subsidies and national sentiment.

So yes, it’s effectively dead outside China

But is Huawei dead as you claimed 5 years ago? why you now changed your tones?

 

[ety]

Today, Huawei doesn’t even crack the top 5 in global smartphone shipments. Globally it’s a dead company.

I don't think smartphone business is the main focus of Huawei, it is first a global telecommunications company.

 

[j_hungary]

I thought you was a serious poster, your starting to sound like Baghdad bob.

Look here, you want to think what you want to think, that's fine.

I am telling him 9 out of 10 (in fact it's 17 out of 18) reports I have read from trusted think tank with multiple military figure, including the one that I was a part of that was led by 2 Flag Officer, 2 Field Grade Guy and 6 Company Grade guy (me included), said if China goes to war with Taiwan with US direct involvement, the result is China going to lose that war, and I have stated why the position behind in term of both Naval and Army doctrinal thinking. If you think what I said sounded like Baghdad Bob, maybe you probably should either investigate how creditable what I said was, or maybe you are the one that sounded like Baghdad Bob, because that's what he did wasn't it? He ignore all creditable intel and blindly believe something he want the people to believe in.

 

[j_hungary]

I would say its even more simple than that. Logically speaking in what conditions can the US beat China 9 out of 10 times if it comes to a Chinese operation to pacify Taiwan. If its China vs rest of the world then he might have a point. Its wishing thinking on the part of US planners if they think Japan, Korea, India, Philippines the aussies will get involved.

I dont see how the US without the support of countries close to Taiwan can win so far from home, they wont be fielding all their carrier groups thats next to impossible.

You have the same issue with the lizard guy.

You have the war the other way around, it's not US against China, it's China against Taiwan with US involvement.

First of all, you can't draw the US into this war without drawing at least Japan into this war as well, secondly, the battlefield is NOT going to be on the Chinese Coast, but will be around Taiwan, and particularly the Eastern part of Taiwan.

As I explained before, China do not have enough sea power to project power on the other side of Taiwan coast, if they do, they are cutting off their own SLOC, and they WILL BE chasing the US Navy in the open ocean instead of in the confine of the Taiwan Strait.

On the other hand, logistically, US could have3 supply route to support their force, one from Japan down, another from Philippine/Singapore Up and the last one is directly from the Mariana's. Unless China can successfully interdict all 3-supply line, this is not going to stop the US from engaging the Chinese.

 

[j_hungary]

He was an infantry grunt.

Knows his stuff in that are and I take those posts seriously there.

Knows less about air and naval warfare than a lot of pdf posters that take an academic interest in these areas.

You do know Army Officer, as well as Navy and Air Force all went to the same staff school, right? In fact, do you even know what is a staff school??

The concept of warfare is the same regardless of what domain you are talking about. Or do you think Army Grunts don't know anything about how the Navy Works or how the Air Force works? Dude, they are called JOINTS command for a reason.

 

[liuzhengdong]

I don't know whether or not China will invade Taiwan.

I am saying if China invade Taiwan and US was directly involved, 9 out of 10 times China WILL LOSE that war.

At that time, Americans also believed that China would lose if it sent troops to North Korea.

In the central and eastern Pacific, the Chinese fleet would lose, but in the Taiwan Strait, China would not lose

Thousands of fighters and bomber drones of the Chinese Air Force can take off from hundreds of airports on the mainland and launch tens of thousands of air strikes on Taiwan within a week. The US Far East Air Force and Navy plus Japan and South Korea have only half the air combat power of the Chinese Air Force. It would take a month for the United States to mobilize the Air Force and Navy from Europe to Japan and South Korea, and Taiwan would have been occupied by then.

It took the US military four months to assemble in the Kuwait War.

 

[j_hungary]

At that time, Americans also believed that China would lose if it sent troops to North Korea.

In the central and eastern Pacific, the Chinese fleet would lose, but in the Taiwan Strait, China would not lose

Thousands of fighters and bomber drones of the Chinese Air Force can take off from hundreds of airports on the mainland and launch tens of thousands of air strikes on Taiwan within a week. The US Far East Air Force and Navy plus Japan and South Korea have only half the air combat power of the Chinese Air Force. It would take a month for the United States to mobilize the Air Force and Navy from Europe to Japan and South Korea, and Taiwan would have been occupied by then.

It took the US military four months to assemble in the Kuwait War.

You talk about Korean war? No, if I remember correctly Truman and the entire cabinet is AGAINST bringing the war to the North and the force they raised from the UN is not enough to cover the entire Korea.

MacArthur was banking on the South Korean to make a difference and that China will not be intervene.

And again, if the war is with US Involvement, that war is NOT just going to be in Taiwan Strait. Chinese Fleet would need to be on the Eastern Seaboard of Taiwan to cut off Taiwanese supply line and Isolate it. Which mean the Chinese fleet need to fight in Western Pacific, also if US Navy is involved, that also mean embargo from as far as Middle East, Malacca Strait and Alaska can also affect China, because it blocks row material from South American, Africa from entering China to sustain Chinese industrial operation.