Iranian Air Force (IRIAF/IRGC-ASF) | News and Discussions

[ToddE]

<Snip>

... When first report of SU-35S-YAK-130 deal came out, there was also news of MIG-29 fleet upgradation to MIG-29SMT as well as SU-24M being brought to SU-24MK2. ... .

I wonder now that Assad has fled what are the chances that Russia can reclaim its a/c in the Syrian AF and transport these back to Russia, and after suitable upgradation, on to Iran.

Sort of when Iraqi a/c fled to Iran to avoid destruction?

Piet

I think the entire SyAAF apparatus will be bombed by Israel to pieces to keep them from ending in service of Radical Islamists.

What a waste, Iran could certainly have those 30 x MIG-29Ms armed with R-77 and R-73 and 48 x Su-24MK/SU-22M4. Another failure for IRI.

 

[ToddE]

Could they have gotten the other 2x mig29's from Syria?

Unlikely. I guess the initial reported number was wrong, they had 2 additional airframes.

 

[Immortals]

I think the entire SyAAF apparatus will be bombed by Israel to pieces to keep them from ending in service of Radical Islamists.

What a waste, Iran could certainly have those 30 x MIG-29Ms armed with R-77 and R-73 and 48 x Su-24MK/SU-22M4. Another failure for IRI.

What a shame. They could have given asylum to the pilots who will likely be killed if captured and used the planes to satisfy the tens of billions of dollars in debt Assad owes Iran.

 

[Hack-Hook]

What a shame. They could have given asylum to the pilots who will likely be killed if captured and used the planes to satisfy the tens of billions of dollars in debt Assad owes Iran.

All those planes won't e en worth 1 milliard

 

[mulj]

What a shame. They could have given asylum to the pilots who will likely be killed if captured and used the planes to satisfy the tens of billions of dollars in debt Assad owes Iran.

When will iranians realise that assad was not ally and that he used you like a fool to remain in power?

 

[ToddE]

What a shame. They could have given asylum to the pilots who will likely be killed if captured and used the planes to satisfy the tens of billions of dollars in debt Assad owes Iran.

IRI intel and diplomacy failed to extremes in Syria. They cut a deal but a bad one. Before allowing the terrorists in, they could have easily lifted out some if not all S-300, Pantsirs, MIGs, SUs. Iranian fleet could have grown but leadership was too busy enforcing new hejab laws. They think with their rear bottoms.

With proper investments in local upgradations or manufacturing programs that they have abandoned due to mismanagement and with this golden opportunity of taking Syrian fleet (had leadership been serious), Iranian fleet could have been something like:

Fighters
62 SU-35S/30SM
54 MIG-29SMT
42 F-14AM (Fakour-90 Armed, Stored but in QRA condition)
64 Kowsar

Attack:
48 SU-24MK2
80 SU-22M4 (IRGCAF upgraded )
64 F-4E/D (Dowran Upgraded, handed over to IRGCAF)

I am constantly following this account, while terrorists have captured MIG-21/23, L-39, there is still less evidence they have got their hands on MIG-29 or SU-24. There is still a slight chance they might end up in Iran if leadership is smart.

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[Hack-Hook]

IRI intel and diplomacy failed to extremes in Syria. They cut a deal but a bad one. Before allowing the terrorists in, they could have easily lifted out some if not all S-300, Pantsirs, MIGs, SUs. Iranian fleet could have grown but leadership was too busy enforcing new hejab laws. They think with their rear bottoms.

With proper investments in local upgradations or manufacturing programs that they have abandoned due to mismanagement and with this golden opportunity of taking Syrian fleet (had leadership been serious), Iranian fleet could have been something like:

Fighters
62 SU-35S/30SM
54 MIG-29SMT
42 F-14AM (Fakour-90 Armed, Stored but in QRA condition)
64 Kowsar

Attack:
48 SU-24MK2
80 SU-22M4 (IRGCAF upgraded )
64 F-4E/D (Dowran Upgraded, handed over to IRGCAF)

I am constantly following this account, while terrorists have captured MIG-21/23, L-39, there is still less evidence they have got their hands on MIG-29 or SU-24. There is still a slight chance they might end up in Iran if leadership is smart.

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For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

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The list of seized equipment is zero all of them get bombed by israel

And after what we saw of the performance of s300 why we must want them . Our s300 were more advanced than syria. Our own arman and 3rd of khordad perform better than s300.

S300 was a thing, 20 years ago not today
And only useful aircraft in syria was su-24mk2

 

[sahureka2]

Journalists do not control the news, they receive scoop from their sources and then publish them mixed with their own opinions. He does the same. How far they live from the source of information means nothing in the modern world.

What is important to me is that roughly 8/10 times he is proven right. He broke the Su-35S news while General Bagheri was still signing the deal in Moscow, he claimed Kowsar program is done in 2020 and it later got proven right. He told about the troubled aerodynamics of Yasin and now we have a crash. List goes on and on. There used to be other Iranian aviation journalists some 10-15 years ago but most of them have left the scene so he is like the sole insider we Iranian aviation fans have who is still publishing and is often unbiased when it comes to IRIAF.

Whether you take him seriously or not is up to you. I for example have respect for David Cinciotti (The Aviationist) but I think Tyler Rogoway (War zone) is a troll.

No one is stopping you from believing it, but as I wrote previously, I do not take "information" as gospel that certainly must be confirmed or denied by tangible evidence.
So all news is welcome because it helps keep the discussion alive, but the word of someone who is not a supertartes, can raise doubts in the reader that not everything that is wrong is true or that not everything that is done well is said.
So I thank you for the great work you do by making us participants of your ideas or bringing those of others, but I remain in my position, or (the proverb) "if I don't see I don't believe".
Greetings and good work, I am always attentive and I read your contributions with pleasure

 

[BigMela2onin]

The list of seized equipment is zero all of them get bombed by israel

And after what we saw of the performance of s300 why we must want them . Our s300 were more advanced than syria. Our own arman and 3rd of khordad perform better than s300.

S300 was a thing, 20 years ago not today
And only useful aircraft in syria was su-24mk2

Because something is better than nothing. Them sitting in scrapyard in Iran is better than being destroyed im Syria. They could have at least be put into service to replace older legacy systems like Hawk. The aircraft could have at least been used for spare parts.

 

[Piet]

IRI intel and diplomacy failed to extremes in Syria. They cut a deal but a bad one. Before allowing the terrorists in, they could have easily lifted out some if not all S-300, Pantsirs, MIGs, SUs. Iranian fleet could have grown but leadership was too busy enforcing new hejab laws. They think with their rear bottoms.

With proper investments in local upgradations or manufacturing programs that they have abandoned due to mismanagement and with this golden opportunity of taking Syrian fleet (had leadership been serious), Iranian fleet could have been something like:

Fighters
62 SU-35S/30SM
54 MIG-29SMT
42 F-14AM (Fakour-90 Armed, Stored but in QRA condition)
64 Kowsar

Attack:
48 SU-24MK2
80 SU-22M4 (IRGCAF upgraded )
64 F-4E/D (Dowran Upgraded, handed over to IRGCAF)

I am constantly following this account, while terrorists have captured MIG-21/23, L-39, there is still less evidence they have got their hands on MIG-29 or SU-24. There is still a slight chance they might end up in Iran if leadership is smart.

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Greetings.

I gave the above some thought last night.

To my mind the only way Iran is going to get any SyAAF a/c via Russia is for the following conditions to exist.

1) If, at this time, these a/c have not already been severely bombed by Israel - or the US -BTW. Possibly a promise by Putin to Netanyahu that these a/c will be prevented (*fixed* if you will) from going xx-km outside of Iranian airspace. I seem to recall that the Russians did something similar to this during the Cold War where Warsaw Pact a/c were *fixed* to prevent them from turning around to attack Russia.

2) That is, if Putin squares this up with Trump, even though Biden is still in office. The main bait here would be the very real prospect of greatly increased sales of F/A a/c, SAM's, LR radar, to Iran's neighbors by the US, EU, etc.

3) Putin undertakes to phase out the transfer of funds and hardware to any groups still actively waging war in the tinderbox up there. Especially Inclusive of ex-Syrian forces, and their equipment, who fled to Iraq.

4) Try to facilitate with the HTS, the in-country safe passage of Russian personnel and equipment to the Hmeimim AB and Tartus naval base respectively. The SyAAF a/c would have to be included in any such talks. The continued use of Hmeimim and Tartus by the Russians, say in lieu of some future consideration. This would of course be subject to intense political pressure from outside.

If everything somehow goes according to plan, I posit that in the 2025 - 2030+ period the IRIAF' ORBAT could look something like this:-

Fighters:---

SU-35/SU-30SM ...................... 50 ---> 100.
MiG-29 SMT ...................... 50 ---> 100.
F-14AM Equal to or less than 40.

I have deleted the 64 Kowsar's from this section to rather spend the ~$1.4 Bn on internal upgrades such as the F-14 for instance.

In lieu of the Kowsar's I have created another section:-

CAS & Perimeter defence: ---

Yak-130/M .......... say ~60?

Attack:---

SU-24MK2/SU-22M4 ............ 60 ---> 100+.
F-4E/D - Dowran Upgrade. Equal to or less than ... 60.

Trainers:---

Turboprops .......... 50 - 60.

Piet

 

[ToddE]

No one is stopping you from believing it, but as I wrote previously, I do not take "information" as gospel that certainly must be confirmed or denied by tangible evidence.
So all news is welcome because it helps keep the discussion alive, but the word of someone who is not a supertartes, can raise doubts in the reader that not everything that is wrong is true or that not everything that is done well is said.
So I thank you for the great work you do by making us participants of your ideas or bringing those of others, but I remain in my position, or (the proverb) "if I don't see I don't believe".
Greetings and good work, I am always attentive and I read your contributions with pleasure

I never said I am believing "information" like "gospel", please stop putting your own words in my mouth.

The best we can do to check the credibility of any "inside" journalistic source is to take their published work (not social media) and see if the claims are proven right over time. In BT's case roughly 8/10 times he is right. F-14 fleet being phased out/disappearance from parades, Su-35S deal, Yasin failure, Kowsar program abandoned, Dowran program budget cuts etc all of these claims came from him and were later proven right. I do not care for politics.

People here want to cover the incompetence in the Iranian Aviation sector so they naturally do not want to hear harsh truths. Luckily, I am not one part of this pro-corruption/incompetence crowd. If you want to believe in North Korean technological marvels like putting welded RQ4 shells over J-7 or Saeghe's mass productions then be my guest.

 

[ToddE]

The list of seized equipment is zero all of them get bombed by israel

I am trying to check where the modern airframes went. So far we have only seen few MIG21BIS or MIG-23ML among fighters.

And after what we saw of the performance of s300 why we must want them . Our s300 were more advanced than syria. Our own arman and 3rd of khordad perform better than s300.

S300 was a thing, 20 years ago not today
And only useful aircraft in syria was su-24mk2

Each and everything counts. See the Ukraine war.

 

[jauk]

When will iranians realise that assad was not ally and that he used you like a fool to remain in power?

Irrelevant. Falsely attaching current events with the past.

 

[ToddE]

Greetings.

I gave the above some thought last night.

To my mind the only way Iran is going to get any SyAAF a/c via Russia is for the following conditions to exist.

1) If, at this time, these a/c have not already been severely bombed by Israel - or the US -BTW. Possibly a promise by Putin to Netanyahu that these a/c will be prevented (*fixed* if you will) from going xx-km outside of Iranian airspace. I seem to recall that the Russians did something similar to this during the Cold War where Warsaw Pact a/c were *fixed* to prevent them from turning around to attack Russia.

Iranian case is different that warsaw pact countries, Iran is not a client state of Russia that it will follow putin's commands. Russia is allied to China yet Russia provides critical tech to India all the times.

2) That is, if Putin squares this up with Trump, even though Biden is still in office. The main bait here would be the very real prospect of greatly increased sales of F/A a/c, SAM's, LR radar, to Iran's neighbors by the US, EU, etc.

3) Putin undertakes to phase out the transfer of funds and hardware to any groups still actively waging war in the tinderbox up there. Especially Inclusive of ex-Syrian forces, and their equipment, who fled to Iraq.

4) Try to facilitate with the HTS, the in-country safe passage of Russian personnel and equipment to the Hmeimim AB and Tartus naval base respectively. The SyAAF a/c would have to be included in any such talks. The continued use of Hmeimim and Tartus by the Russians, say in lieu of some future consideration. This would of course be subject to intense political pressure from outside.

Such talks do happen, right now there are rumors over internet of Russia signing deal with DPRK to supply them with MIG-29 and SU-27 airframes against DPRK pumping more soldiers into Ukraine theatre. So yes this can happen but in Iranian case, the bigger question should be, does Iranian leadership even want these planes? do not underestimate the stubbornness of Ayatollahs when it comes to rebuilding IRIAF.

If everything somehow goes according to plan, I posit that in the 2025 - 2030+ period the IRIAF' ORBAT could look something like this:-

Fighters:---

SU-35/SU-30SM ...................... 50 ---> 100.
MiG-29 SMT ...................... 50 ---> 100.
F-14AM Equal to or less than 40.

I have deleted the 64 Kowsar's from this section to rather spend the ~$1.4 Bn on internal upgrades such as the F-14 for instance.

In lieu of the Kowsar's I have created another section:-

CAS & Perimeter defence: ---

Yak-130/M .......... say ~60?

Attack:---

SU-24MK2/SU-22M4 ............ 60 ---> 100+.
F-4E/D - Dowran Upgrade. Equal to or less than ... 60.

Trainers:---

Turboprops .......... 50 - 60.

Piet

I have a hard time believing Russia will be able to complete the 62 Flanker airframes order. (A) They do not have the capacity to manufacture these planes in high numbers while their own needs are above Iranian ones, even if we start with 12 airframes/per year then the order will be completed by 2029 (B) Post Ukraine war Russia will try to appease US/NATO at all costs so they can do the "S-300" again, they have a history of backstabbing Iran. Before S-300 there was Mig-29/31 fiasco in 90s.

I see some numbers delivered and then order being hanged by Moscow because of "sanctions".

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

The F-14 is not abandoned, the Kowsar project continues. Modern planes can also crash during testing, so the case of the Yasin is not unique. We must be careful with false analyses that are not proven in reality. There was an F-35 in the USA during testing that crashed, so did the USA stop their program for that?