Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

That_Guy said:
It's pretty clear now what happened.

Assad was abandoned.

With Russia distracted by Ukraine, and Iran trying to manage its proxy war with Israel, Assad was not a priority.

Hezbullah, while having its military capability mostly intact, and its entire leadership reconstituted, did not want to get involved again in Syria. It would have been a political disaster as Lebanese people were in no mood to give further benefit of the doubt to Hezbullah.

Plus, with all the leaks and reports coming out, it seemed like Assad was not only deeply disliked, but was actively selling out Hezbullah, and Iran to Israeli intelligence, and Russia to US intelligence.

Basically, Assad played himself. He grew too confident, and tried to play all sides against each other. He underestimated his usefulness to everyone involved.

So he everyone abandoned him.
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Iran fukked up bro.......now you got CIA dalit everywhere......just like in our country no? when we fukked up on Afghanistan.
 
Lulldapull said:
Wtf you mumbling man? Zia ul Huq killed 20k Al-Balastinians in 1977 no for an uprising in Jordan?

Wtf kind of official policy will Pakistani's have on Syria or Palestine?

Are you joking?
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sorry, you are not coherent, do not understand what your straw man means.
 
“The spokesman for the so-called Military Council of the SDF organization in Deir ez-Zor
He announced his defection from the organization because of its killing of civilians in Deir ez-Zor

He announced his support for the new government and called on all
The remaining members of the Military Council defected

“It is noteworthy that the United States merged Arab tribes with the organization, and if the organization’s Arab fighters defect, the organization will find a major crisis among its fighters that may lead to its collapse.

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EyelessInGaza said:
Even if everything you said is true, I want to know why the regime fell in 12 freaking days.

A massive win, with barely any casualties to speak of. On either side.

Whole cities given up without a fight.

I can only arrive at the following possible conclusions, some combination thereof:

- the SAA was absolutely useless

- The generals and/ or Assad did their own deals with the enemy

- Iran and Russia ran out of stamina/ patience/ finances/ willpower/ manpower to support Assad

- The rebels were very well prepared, and supported. Plus their military strategy was excellently planned and executed

But nothing by itself would be reason for SAA folding like a cheap suit.

I note that Assad’s behaviour was extraordinary. First thing a ruler does is to come on TV at a time like this. To show strength, reassure supporters. This man though was mostly missing from the public eye, from the outset.

I think this performance will be studied more in the future.
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Assad's army was mostly conscripts, whom after fighting on multiple fronts were pretty much depleted in both morale and equipment.

The rebels didn't actually plan this out all that well. It's clear that even they were surprised by this.

Initially, what happened was that Assad was planning a final assault on Idlib, and was launching shaping operations. HTS under pressure from the population they were ruling over (whom were getting killed from Assad regime strikes) launche an operation to push back the Assadists, and perhaps take Aleppo....

....and that's where everything went wrong for Assad. His forces simply disintegrated when the rebels out even a slight bit of pressure.

As soon as that happened, it was clear to everyone that Assad was finished. HTS, while surprised initially, quickly smelled blood in the water, and launched a rapid offensive on Hama, Homs, and Damascus.

Assad then had to deal with an rebellion uprising from the south, and SDF forces attacking his forces in the east.

With all these crises cropping up, and his army performing poorly, his regime just....disintegrated into dust.

Iran, Hezbullah, and Russia couldn't do much, as they all were busy dealing with their own crises, on top of just hating Assad's guts.
 
ammar_ said:
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@Meengla

Looks like the Druze of SW Syria want no part of being part of the mess that is Syria and with ex Al-Qaeda terrorists in Damascus.

You can hardly blame them anymore as they are just looking to survive.

We could see an additional thousands of square kms of Syria taken by the entity as part of the "Greater Israel" project.
 
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battalion25 said:
The Kurds don´t have the means or logistics to fight the rebels it would be over in 2 days. The US can´t hold their hands and trump wants to pull out of there entirely
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Regardless, there's no one else reporting this, so I'll be taking this with a grain of salt.
 
battalion25 said:
The Iraqis did cross over the border in large numbers and so did Hezbollah but there was just no way they could stand against such a storm from the north. HTS 120.000 and SNA 100.000 armed to the teeth that is in total 220.000 forces armed to the teeth.
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HTS had about 10 to 20 thousand. That 120,000 was merely propaganda from HTS.

Hezbullah sent 2000 soldiers, but they stayed near the border because Hezbullah can't afford to get involved in Syria again. The Lebonese public wouldn't tolerate it.
battalion25 said:
They had jammers, drones, night visions, everything and they fought in a way the SAA didn´t use to which is softening their positions first with drones and even the Russians said they haven´t seen drones used that effectively.
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HTS had only had a limited amount of drones (that they produced locally). Their NVGs were mostly civilian grade, and bought in bulk online (you can probably get them on Amazon or TEMU. LOL).

HTS used those drones in the same way the Ukrainians used them, which makes since if you consider the unverifiable report that the Ukrainians helped them build factories for cheap attack drones, and how to use them.

Why Russia would say this is dumb, considering they've literally been facing this tactic in Syria for years now.

battalion25 said:
The only place they stood there ground and fight was in Hama and after that it was over they knew it was over because they saw what they ran into and all these who fled Hama never wanted to fight the rebels again. They saw the perfect unstoppable storm in Hama
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This i 100% agree with.
 
FOOLS_NIGHTMARE said:
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Idiots. Usa and others powers only want to remove anti Usa/Israeli government's and install pro usa puppets. They don't care about Assad cruely or care about the Syrian people.
 
Lulldapull said:
Iran fukked up bro.......now you got CIA dalit everywhere......just like in our country no? when we fukked up on Afghanistan.
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It's less an Iranian **** up, and more of anAssad **** up.

He got arrogant and tried to play all sides. Near the end, he even tried to sell the Golan Heights and Iranian secrets to Israel in exchange for Israeli help.
 
battalion25 said:
The Rebes achieved what Assad couldn´t achieve in 13 years.

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I believe that is why Blinken was also in Turkey
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A 50% split of revenue on such a small kurdish population - seems like they got the best end of the deal given they were facing military defeat.
 
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