Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

[Foinikas]

Kurds are the perfect ally for Zio-US.

1. They can split Syria, Iraq, Turkey and Iran up by forming a contiguous nation.

2. Plenty of oil wealth and so they won't be an economic drain on Zio-US.

3. They would be eternally grateful to Zio-US for helping them gain their own country.

I don't know if they could become indepedent in Iran,I don't think so,but in Syria yeah! If the Kurds of Iraq and Syria managed to have common borders,which is tough now,they could form their own State easily.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israel bombs Syria's underground missile tunnels days after Turkish-backed HTS terrorists reveal its location

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[UKBengali]

I don't know if they could become indepedent in Iran,I don't think so,but in Syria yeah! If the Kurds of Iraq and Syria managed to have common borders,which is tough now,they could form their own State easily.

Syria and Iraq independent for sure.

Iran and maybe Turkey are too strong.

However Turkey can be "cut down to size" by Syrian-Iraqi Kurdish "state". They could provide shelter, arms and training to Turkish Kurds.

This is simply a perfect opportunity to control and threaten Turkey in future all thanks to our resident clown Erdogan.

 

[muhammed45]

you are a minority

Do you know the irony? Even if a free soul from South America speaks sanely, will be labeled as a Shia minority.

Imam Ali (A. S.) says, 'The wise person is not the one who knows good from evil, but the wise one is the one who knows the good of two evils.'

Assad was bad, ok. But what about a disfunctional state driven by American motivated Jihadists?

The term punctuality is a phrase that needs to be described for people like you over and over again. When to fight, when to calm down, when to avoid backstabbing your own brother, when to move, when to stop.

I can see Israelis laughing at our faces, celebrating the story of making Syria a disfunctional and a backward state overtaken by rebranded headchoppers.

 

[j_hungary]

No need to get upset. Arab-China relations look very shiny when you tunnel vision them but put them side by side with Arab-NATO relations and the difference is clear. Talk is cheap all these meetings and lip service doesn't change reality is not measurable.

China has had the greatest economic rise in history I didn't mention any economic difference between west-Arab and China-Arab relations. The economic relations are less relevant in this regard - hence I pointed out the defence cooperation in particular.

To address the defence cooperation specifically lets the Saudi-China ballistic missile compare that to the airplanes for the Saudi airforce. How much $ went into western airforce equipment vs. Chinese? Likewise with UAE, even after recognizing Israel and offering to buy F-35 the UAE got a middle finger on the F-35s. Did UAE approach China for a stealth aircraft?

Regarding the bases, yes I did know about Chinese base in Djibouti but if everyone has a base there it's not really that unique. Meanwhile here's a map of official US bases in the region (2021 so might be a little out of date):
View attachment 87967

Invited or not they have a massive presence in Arab lands whereas China has 0. I will disagree with you about China wanting to have bases there due to China wanting to distinguish itself from America. I don't think the Chinese want bases there because they claim they don't want to be a military hegemon. If offered I wouldn't be surprised if they took it though.

There are 2 factors on any military base outside their area of control. The need and the mean. You need a reason to have a base outside your region, and you need a way to support it if you are setting up base outside your domain. China lacked both. I mean for what would the Chinese need a base for? They are not planning to bomb Africa or have boots on the ground in the middle east. They aren't part of any side of the conflict in any region beside theirs. Which mean there were no need to have military structure outside of their territories. On the other hand, even if they do, how are they going to supply and support such a base? Unlike US, France and the UK, China don't really have overseas territories, which mean the tail of the log train ALWAYS go back to China, which mean for the Djibouti base, all their supplies and stock have to come directly from China (Not talking about food and water and etc). They can do that there because first of all, it's peace time and all sea route are open, and second of all, it's just 1 base, they can afford to keep sending ship from China to support that base, it would have been another issue if you are talking about multiple base in the region.

Unless China starts blasting away and become a colonial power and start annexing territories here and there, there are no need nor mean to support any oversea structure. And if they really do start doing this, you would imagine who will be on the receiving end of Chinese colonial ambition? It's going to be in the middle east and Africa again...

 

[Strider]

This is abstract and not a criterion.

I asked you to define a criterion.

What are you looking for exactly? If the documents are not legitimate, what are you looking of? Israel to put out a statement? "Yeah he was our b!tch the whole time." Or him in Moscow Admitting it? Or the Iranians putting out a statement that they were getting played? lol

Thats not realistic. And thats not how the real world works.

There is plently of smoke if you want to take a look.

From the documents, from the behaviors, from the comments from Observers, both Iraqi PMU people interviewed, Israelis commentators saying they preferred him b/c of their relationship and "known commodity". The shit he was negotiating via the UAE. The denial of several requests that Iran made to put weapons in Syria. reports that this guy ratted on the IRGC generals in the consulate. Iran's non interest in saving him at the end. The beef with the Houthis, where he closed down they embassy in exchange for the Saudi embassy. Turkish intelligence statements from Hakan Fidan that there was a "quid pro quo" understanding between the regime and Israel. The disputes and tensions with the lack of commitment Assad displayed.

What more do you need, where there is smoke, there is fire. You will never get anything more in Foreign relations, b/c its all "inside baseball" as they say.

If you want my take, here is what I think. At the beginning he was desperate, and the only ones willing to die for him, were the Iranians and Hezbollah, and in return he provided them with a minimum in return while not trying to antagonize Israel. So there was never a "full commitment" to fight Israel, as part of "the resistance" that they keep doing PR for. He was trying to survive, he wasn't trying to be a "hero". After the Russians stepped in, he stabilized more, and his dependence of Iran decreased, and he cut their influence accordingly. He thought he had won at that point. Then when the Gaza conflict started, and Hezbollah activated the northern front, Iran and Hezbollah became an outright "liability" in his eyes, b/c the supplies and strategic depth in Syria aggravated the Israelis. This is around the time he moved to cut off the Israelis and normalized with Saudi, he was negotiating the normalization deal with the UAE. The Emiratis(who were the go between him and washington/Israel) were trying to tell him that the Iranians were a liability, and that if he dumped them, the US would give santions relief and the GCC would give investments. And again, at that time he thought he had already won, he didn't need Iran, he had Russia and that was enough.

He didn't want to sell Capatogon all his life, and with the sactions relief he could travel to Europe again, and other benefits. The US promised to give him back the oil fields as well. This guy was gonna take the deal and get rid of Iran to save himself, and he planned to... but then the unexpected Rebel offensive happened and everything collapsed in 11 days.

Assad never laid a bullet on Israel despite his territory being bombed by Israel multiple times while under Russian protection. It struck me as so weird and out of line. It was bizarre.

Then I realized that regional and international dynamics is rarely a game of 'Good guys' vs. 'Bad guys' or 'Team A' vs. 'Team B'.

There were definitely some underlying discussions between Assad and the West as you pointed out. But that was changed by the events of October 7th and the unexpected rebel advances.

And according to leaked cables, Assad did not have a good opinion of Hamas. That should partly tell one where his commitments lied - Himself, like any other good dictator

Reporting from Beirut — Syrian President Bashar Assad described Hamas as an “uninvited guest” in his country in confidential conversations with American lawmakers, and appeared to suggest he would be willing to give up the alliance in exchange for incentives, according to several documents contained in the trove of leaked diplomatic cables posted online by the website WikiLeaks.

Source: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-dec-02-la-fg-wikileaks-syria-20101202-story.html

 

[hyperman]

Assad never laid a bullet on Israel despite his territory being bombed by Israel multiple times while under Russian protection. It struck me as so weird and out of line. It was bizarre.

Then I realized that regional and international dynamics is rarely a game of 'Good guys' vs. 'Bad guys' or 'Team A' vs. 'Team B'.

There were definitely some underlying discussions between Assad and the West as you pointed out. But that was changed by the events of October 7th and the unexpected rebel advances.

And according to leaked cables, Assad did not have a good opinion of Hamas. That should partly tell one where his commitments lied - Himself, like any other good dictator


Source: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-dec-02-la-fg-wikileaks-syria-20101202-story.html

" January 2010 cable."

Even before the Civil War, he was willing to Sell Hamas.

MuH AxiS Of ReSiSTanCe. lol

So far a confirmation of the Selling of Hamas, Houthis in concrete text.

And indications of movement/negotiations to sell Iran and Hezbollah.

Assad only cared about one thing, and it was neither Anti Zionism, nor "Resistance Solidarity" nor even Syrian Interests.

Assad cared only about Assad and Preservation of his kleptocratic Rule.

A Rat, a Snake, a Zalim, and a Coward to the Bitter end.

 

[Sharma Ji]

This is the first post of yours that I gave the "love" rating to as you are absolutely right there.

Now you may understand why the ME is dominated and controlled by Zio-US as the people don't know who their enemies are when even the deaf, blind and dumb would have figured it out decades ago.

Love rating reciprocated

They being played like a the whole lot.

When you have such a deep chasm, artificial or real... others gonna take advantage.

Wonder who is next in that part

Iran too strong for now...

 

[Soldier35]

Columns of Russian army and Rosgvardia units continue to converge on the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartus base in Syria. It is too early to talk about the future of Russian military bases in Syria; negotiations are currently underway with the new Syrian leadership. Earlier, the Syrian opposition gave their own security guarantees not only to Russian military bases, but also to all Russian diplomatic institutions in Syria. The second part of the video shows the operation of an airfield near the city of Qamishli, in northeastern Syria, where units of the 154th regiment of the Russian group of troops are stationed. The base is still operating, but judging by the flags, the military equipment is being prepared for movement. There are currently two key Russian bases in Syria — in Tartus and Khmeimim. Tartus is the only Russian naval base in the Mediterranean.

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[UKBengali]

Love rating reciprocated

They being played like a the whole lot.

When you have such a deep chasm, artificial or real... others gonna take advantage.

Wonder who is next in that part

Iran too strong for now...

I think they will try to suffocate Hezbollah but that may not be as easy as some imagine as Hezbollah has its own weapons manufacturing facilities and the coastline is still technically open with Alawite/Russian control.

When you look at all the posts here from ordinary Sunni Muslims in favour of toppling Assad, we can see that the myth that the problems of the region are solely caused by puppet and collaborationist ME regimes is not the whole truth. It is a mentality of the people of the region that is the root cause of the problem.

They want to support Gaza(indirectly Hezbollah who was fighting to stop the genocide in Gaza) while at the same time topple Assad.

Assad put his life on the line for years by allowing Hezbollah to be supplied through his country.

 

[Borderlands]

Now one thing is clear, Syria will never be allowed to have a real conventional military force ever again. Israel is going to attack and destroy any attempt to rebuild Syrian army. With no airforce, navy or heavy equipment, Syria will turn into a bigger version of Lebanon. A nuisance at best, but never a strategic threat to Israel.

 

[Strider]

MuH AxiS Of ReSiSTanCe. lol

This has got to be the most ridiculous terms out there on social media.

Assad put his life on the line for years by allowing Hezbollah to be supplied through his country.

Please spend some time reading leaked cables.

He never laid a bullet on Israel while they were bombing his territory under Russian protection.

Even Hamas congratulated Syrians for Assad's fall. They know he was no friend.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-congratulates-syrians-ending-assads-rule-2024-12-09/

There are lot of fake pro-Palestinian accounts out there. No principle whatsoever.

 

[indushek]

Seems like Syrians are being taken for a ride, with factions split between opposing powers supporting either.

Turks are working with Israel, but might end up getting backstabbed at some point.

Israel has successfully ended its problem vis a visa supply lines to Hezbollah, from the Iranians. There is now talk of a naval base being granted to them, in some closer country I forget which it is.

I doubt they will ever return the areas captured, and the way HTS is mum about their raids shows who is supporting them.

Once this end is done with, they will go after Hezbollah and then Hamas too. End them totally which might not be easy, will not have much difficulties due to supply line cut off.

Only for Israel this might end up, as a short-term gain. In long run they will be facing bigger problems, as they have done in the past. They supported rebel groups everywhere before, who came to kill them before too.

Russians clearly abandoned Assad, and while they are talking of Assad playing around.. Its entirely possible, this is some kind of dealing with US in exchange for concessions on Ukraine. If this happens, Ukraine is toast. Already the farm land aka bread basket of Europe, half of it is controlled via reconstruction contracts given to US investors and more will go.

End of the day one more country falls when it got weakened, for the hunger of power game and big powers.

 

[UKBengali]

He never laid a bullet on Israel while they were bombing his territory under Russian protection.

His "job" was never to fire a single bullet at the entity as he was in no position to go to war with it.

Allowing supply to Hezbollah was more than any other Arab state was doing.

I have no idea why people do not think at any more than a surface level when it comes to what Assad could realistically do.

 

[UKBengali]

Now one thing is clear, Syria will never be allowed to have a real conventional military force ever again. Israel is going to attack and destroy any attempt to rebuild Syrian army. With no airforce, navy or heavy equipment, Syria will turn into a bigger version of Lebanon. A nuisance at best, but never a strategic threat to Israel.

Actually weaker than Lebanon that at least had or still has Hezbollah which is backed by Iran and the Shia principled resistance mentality.