Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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- #1,141
Sure. Everything you don't like is "propaganda". You only make yourself look ridiculous, keep it up.
Iranian Missiles | News and Discussions
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UKBengali
Elite Member
I read it and he does understand statistics at some level but seems to have not worked a key value he comes up with of why his assumed CEP was way off.
He says with 600m CEP, the chance of hitting a specific target is 0.03%.
His assumptions about “target set” are valid but the fact that 5-8 out of 35 impact hits a “target” negates that estimated CEP of 500m.
Yes the actual points hit may not have been the “specific target” and the missile hit another “target”, but the fact that the “target sets” are like a few percent of the airbase area, makes his estimate almost certainly way pessimistic.
He seems to be someone not highly trained in statistics or just biased against Iran.
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lightning f57
Trusted Member
You guys are missing the elephant in the room with this CEP analysis.
What missiles were used?
If a few advance ones were in the mix it makes it difficult to determine actual CEP, only possible ranges which will mostly hide the more accurate strikes.
What missiles were used?
If a few advance ones were in the mix it makes it difficult to determine actual CEP, only possible ranges which will mostly hide the more accurate strikes.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #1,145
he assumes a missile must hit within 5m of a target to 'hit' it
so if a random missile has only a 50% chance to land within 600m of the target, a sub 1% chance of landing within 5m of the target seems reasonable to me
UKBengali
Elite Member
One follows from the other and they are not independently calculated values!
Also, he assumed that all the missiles that impacted were the most modern and accurate Iran has.
Iran most likely did not use more than a handful of *absolute* best it had.
Yes it used a lot of very modern missiles but we do not know the exact split which could radically change the CEP estimate.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #1,147
which missiles do we have that are more advanced than Kheibar Shekan-1 and Kheibar Shekan-2?
there is no evidence of Fattah-2 entering production and Khorramshahr is much larger and more expensive than the solid fuel missiles
we saw videos from Operation True Promise II released by Iran showing dozens of Kheibar Shekan -1 and -2 being launched, I will post them again later
anyway, when a respected source conducts a detailed analysis and makes a conclusion, I do not understand the impulsive reaction to attack it rather than learn from it... it shows great weakness.
UKBengali
Elite Member
I will leave it about the “respected” source and agree to disagree there. I have major issues with some of his reasoning in that article.
Yes that missile mentioned is supposed to have a CEP of 30m and a huge 1.5 ton warhead.
That would be the missile to knock out multiple major targets with maybe only some dozens of missiles.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #1,149
Kheibar Shekan is also supposed to have CEP < 20m but in war scenario that was not the case
Khorramshahr is a large and expensive missile, production numbers are unclear, but certainly a monster of a missile given the massive warhead.
UKBengali
Elite Member
Also how does anyone know the exact mix of missiles used?
A few launch videos prove nothing.
To my knowledge IRGC did not reveal exact mix of missiles used.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #1,151
we do not know the exact breakdown. no one said this is exact, everything is based on assumptions
we saw videos of 20-30+ missiles and virtually all were newer Kheibar Shekans. satellite imagery revealed c. 32 impacts at Nevatim. inferences can be drawn
you will notice that those who attack people who present evidence they don't like never offer competing analyses. there is a reason for that.
Musings
Administrator
Stop insulting management members. Stick to the topic and don’t try to agitate members. Next post you do - I will take action
UKBengali
Elite Member
No one is “attacking” anyone here.
Like I say if we were ever to know the exact mix of missiles used then those saying hundreds of metres CEP for the most modern Iranian ballistic missiles may be singing a different tune.
20-30 launch videos of mainly KS-2 cannot be extrapolated to the whole set of 180-200 missiles launched as that is the mix of missiles used.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #1,154
you certainly are not, and you are actually trying to offer points of critique, which is appreciated
I will post the launch videos later and we can count how many missiles we see
but we certainly did not see 20-30 accurate impacts with CEP < 20m that's for sure
UKBengali
Elite Member
The thing that never really added up for me is how Iran can send missiles in 2020 with proven 5m CEP over distances of 500km and then the CEP goes up 100 fold when the distance is just tripled. The CEP should scale up linearly and not exponentially if the Iranians are using the same kind of guidance system.
Maybe Iran was able to use “trajectory correction” from its own radars “talking” to its SRBMs as they slammed with pinpoint accuracy at the US bases, but I do not have any knowledge of this type of “trajectory correction”.
Without a complete picture of the types of missiles used and the exact intended target points we are just guessing to some extent.
