China’s economy is no longer expected to overtake the US economy in size until mid century, if at all

[Beijingwalker]

Population flucuation throughout China's 5,000 years history was quite normal and never long term, this current one is just a fleeting moment at best.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Just couples of decades of some slight population decrease and claiming this 5,000 years old civilization is dead, what can be more ridiculous than that

 

[Tumba]

Don't worry China, India will overtake the US in 2030 for Asia. They're the upcoming spanking brand new Supa Powa.

what about supa cowa pakistan in 2030 …

 

[RealNapster]

100K? Singapore with 6mil people is already accepting 30K+ permanent residents every year and yet our population is barely growing.

Immigration will make no difference to China with a 1.4bil people and a TFR of 1.0 (implying that every generation will shrink by 50%).

View attachment 92873

China's working population is already shrinking by >10mil every year, and the decline is only accelerating. Even at current pace, its working population will shrink an equivalent of Taiwan's total population every ~2 years, or South Korea's total population every ~5 years.

Immigration will make no difference to China's demography. Moreover, for young and educated workers looking to immigrate, the first choice of destination for the majority will be English speaking developed countries. And the second choice would be non-English speaking developed countries.

Even Japan has difficulties attracting and retaining skills workers, due to comparatively low wages and an additional language barrier.


View attachment 92874

Here the issue is not making china's population grow through immigration, but fulfilling the backlog and requirement of young workforce which is slowly turning into old dependents. For that 100K annually will be more than sufficient. That being said, I am not putting cap on it, 100K was just an example.

 

[ST1976]

China's defense budget is much smaller than US on paper but the buildup and development is much faster, go figure.

i would say, the US's defence budget would be well below to Chinese one, if they dont lie

while the credible source of information state, the US's defence budget would be less than even Indian defence budget also

i repeat, US's 'total' budget is measured around as much as they claim for only defence budget.....

on the other hand, US$ is well measured below to Yuan in many countries. few claim, US$ may take decades to reach even 'half' to the current Yuan level, if US-west dont lie and manipulate currencies on different world platforms

 

[ST1976]

Population flucuation throughout China's 5,000 years history was quite normal and never long term, this current one is just a fleeting moment at best.

View attachment 92892

China's 5000years old Economic history is reported as below also.

it mainly states economic history of World since information of 'Jesus', for last more than 2000 years

.
=>

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

The Economist has developed its own infographics of 2,000 years of economic history with Mr Maddison's data. One in 2010, nicknamed "GDP since Jesus" charts just that (below, with commentary here). We encountered the same layout difficulties as Mr Cembalest, so chose a bar chart to distinguish specific years, and fiddled with the spacing of increments on the x-axis to designate missing chunks of time. The result is imperfect, but we did as much as possible to disclose, not camouflage, the imperfections. (In retrospect, we should have done more on the right-hand side of the chart, such as perhaps making the bar widths proportionately thinner….)

A second chart from last year (below, and with a commentary here) is both simple and startling. Among the points it presents is that in the first decade of the 21st century, the population of the world produced more economic output than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined.

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Just couples of decades of some slight population decrease and claiming this 5,000 years old civilization is dead, what can be more ridiculous than that

Let's come back in 2030. By then China should be the largest economy by NOMINAL GDP.

This is a guess. This post can be marked and remembered.

 

[mythbuster]

Demographics are destiny, and China is literally dying out over the next 75 years.

China won’t be able to compete with the US over the long term.

If China can implement one child policy I see no reason why she can't lmplement 3 child policy .

 

[agidest]

If China can implement one child policy I see no reason why she can't lmplement 3 child policy .

You're not the sharpest tool in the shed, are you?

Because its astronomically easier to stop women from having children, than to get them to have children. Having children is entirely voluntary and can't be enforced even by CCP.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Demographics are destiny, and China is literally dying out over the next 75 years.

China won’t be able to compete with the US over the long term.

With 1.3 billion people, the Chinese demographics will be fine. By the same logic, the uk has 50 million white people and a birthrate of 1.44. They will become a minority by 2060.

 

[mythbuster]

You're not the sharpest tool in the shed, are you?

Because its astronomically easier to stop women from having children, than to get them to have children. Having children is entirely voluntary and can't be enforced even by CCP.

Look for the meaning of incentives in your dictionary Mr. Smarty pants.

 

[ST1976]

China's 5000years old Economic history is reported as below also.

it mainly states economic history of World since information of 'Jesus', for last more than 2000 years

.
=>

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

View attachment 93161

The Economist has developed its own infographics of 2,000 years of economic history with Mr Maddison's data. One in 2010, nicknamed "GDP since Jesus" charts just that (below, with commentary here). We encountered the same layout difficulties as Mr Cembalest, so chose a bar chart to distinguish specific years, and fiddled with the spacing of increments on the x-axis to designate missing chunks of time. The result is imperfect, but we did as much as possible to disclose, not camouflage, the imperfections. (In retrospect, we should have done more on the right-hand side of the chart, such as perhaps making the bar widths proportionately thinner….)

A second chart from last year (below, and with a commentary here) is both simple and startling. Among the points it presents is that in the first decade of the 21st century, the population of the world produced more economic output than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined.

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

further, here is the above's map of 'The Economist' in large view, as below

here, China at least have their history of last 2000 years upto now as below, since Time of 'Jesus Christ', as discussed in the article of the Economist in post#66

More 2,000 years in a single graphic

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

.
=>

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[ST1976]

China's 5000years old Economic history is reported as below also.

it mainly states economic history of World since information of 'Jesus', for last more than 2000 years

.
=>

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

View attachment 93161

The Economist has developed its own infographics of 2,000 years of economic history with Mr Maddison's data. One in 2010, nicknamed "GDP since Jesus" charts just that (below, with commentary here). We encountered the same layout difficulties as Mr Cembalest, so chose a bar chart to distinguish specific years, and fiddled with the spacing of increments on the x-axis to designate missing chunks of time. The result is imperfect, but we did as much as possible to disclose, not camouflage, the imperfections. (In retrospect, we should have done more on the right-hand side of the chart, such as perhaps making the bar widths proportionately thinner….)

A second chart from last year (below, and with a commentary here) is both simple and startling. Among the points it presents is that in the first decade of the 21st century, the population of the world produced more economic output than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined.

More 2,000 years in a single graphic​

Did JP Morgan's striking chart on 2,000 years of economic history bungle the x-axis? Why yes, it did.

www.economist.com

Good day gentlemen
How we see above post#66? How we see religious lessons of West since time of Jesus Christ helped Christian lands till the year 1800? Till peak of India 's Hindu Rule Maratha whose leadership again helped South Asia defeat China's economic size by the year 1800?
We don't see European Labor cost near South Asia's since time of Jesus Christ to 1900+

 

[ST1976]

Don't worry China, India will overtake the US in 2030 for Asia. They're the upcoming spanking brand new Supa Powa.

I have news that we have reached saturation, the peak of this century..

We don't see world may up from the peak we have already reached. The world won't be better than what we have seen

 

[ST1976]

US only has US dollars, not much else, if the dollar dominance is gone, US will become a poor country overnight. What China has are goods and products, it doesn't matter what currency rules, they always will be all there to dominate.

We have news that US dollar is measured well below to Chinese Yuan in many countries.
Now, no one buying US$ or Euro, as it's impossible to buy these foreign reserve currency on current level