Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present
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PakFactor
Elite Member
You should ask the Lebanese Government as they guarantee this cease-fire. If they didn't see this coming, they deserved to lose land. I guess they can use their military to open coffee houses now.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Hezbollah agreed to the ceasefire and is proceeding to get dissolved on top of Israelis taking land. Why isn't Hezbollah fighting back?
Lebanese Army didn't hold the border before, and they don't hold it now, the loser here is Hezbollah.
Its not even Hezbollah's fault, Iran left them to themselves, Hezbollah wanted them to escalate and give more support, but they decided not to. And now they are trying to play nice with Trump asking for a deal.
PakFactor
Elite Member
Under the agreement, the Lebanese Army is now responsible for the border, and Hezbollah was to pull back. So, the onus is on the LA to protect the country's territorial integrity.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Well Its bollah thats taking the Ls, its Shias in the South that are affected with Hezbollah's decisions, and its Iran's fault Hezbollah is without support as they balked in the support. Israel can only do this b/c Iran refused to escalate, Hezbollah asked for more support, and the Iranians said no. Thats why the ceasefire even happened. Iran never hit with True Promise 3.
PakFactor
Elite Member
What have TP 1 and TP 2 done? Absolutely nothing. It was a choreographed show of hitting bases while the F-35s and other assets sat in Cyprus. None of the Iranian assets did any damage, and the Iranians have seen how Arab nations prevented anything from happening. Even, Lebanese Border Forces prevented arms from coming through from Syria.
Let's not forget later on in the conflict, it came out that Iran never told Hamas to do the actions they've done. It was Hamas's negligence that allowed Israel to dismantle its reach and power practically, and with Syria folded, there's nothing Iran can do; it's been cut off.
The result is Iran lost in this chess game.
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Falcon29
Elite Member
Falcon29
Elite Member
US estimates say Iran has 2,000 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel. If that is true, that is nowhere enough to engage in a battle of trading blows. They would run out of them.
Now let's say they have more than than we think. A TP3 wouldn't deter Israel, it would be to deal a blow to Israel and punish it. And then I think you would have to keep going and ride the momentum. Which means it would erupt in a regional war which US will largely engage in on behalf of Israel.
Kyussis
Trusted Member
Iran bout $100 million in spare parts from Israel shortly after Saddam invaded Iran out of desperation due to being cut off from U.S supplies. Iran bought way more U.S spare parts from Vietnam than even it ever bought from Israel. The weapons that Iran received during Iran Contra came from U.S depots in Israel but Israel its self was not party to the deal.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Well you gotto tell the numbnuts on the Pro "resistance" side who keep asking why the Syrian Govt hasn't attacked Israel yet. lol, if its too much for Iran with 2,000 missiles, why is it a reasonable ask for the Syrian govt which hasn't even fully consolidated the country yet.
Falcon29
Elite Member
Don't disagree with that logic. But I think if the Gaza situation continues to spiral out of control then everyone in the region has a collective responsibility to act through whatever means available. Through diplomacy at the very least.
HAIDER
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
US pressure on Lebanon reveals plan to enforce normalization with Israel
February 1, 2025 - 22:47
SOUTH LEBANON – Today, Sunday, the residents of the occupied border towns – Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, Aitaroun, Blida, Mays al-Jabal, Houla, Markaba, Adaisseh, and Kfar Kila - will resume their liberation movement as the Israeli enemy continues its attacks in south and north of the Litani River.
The meeting that brought together Morgan Ortagus, the US Deputy Special Envoy for West Asia, with General Jasper Jeffers, Chairman of the Ceasefire Implementation Supervision Committee, did not announce any guarantees that the occupation regime would be obligated to withdraw on February 18, but rather to launch an intensive inspection of about 30 sites suspected of being Hezbollah facilities.
The committee had informed the Lebanese army that it had information about alleged sites where it claimed Hezbollah was hiding ammunition and weapons.
While the committee ignores the killing and kidnapping of Lebanese civilians by the occupation forces, analysts expect international pressure on Lebanon, warning of the possibility that Ortagus and Jeffers will blackmail Lebanon to ensure that the occupation forces will remain in 5 strategic locations on the border in a bid to establish a “buffer zone” under the pretext of ensuring the security of the colonial settlers.
Yanon Magal, a political commentator close to Netanyahu, pointed out that “from the Trump administration’s point of view, Israel can remain in the five locations in southern Lebanon as long as Lebanon violates the ceasefire agreement,” revealing that American officials have told their Israeli counterparts: “Do whatever is necessary to enhance your security. We will not stand in your way.”
Washington wants to subject Lebanon to the implementation of the Israeli version of UN Resolution 1701 as it does not plan anything other than achieving the broad normalization project across the region.
Despite Hezbollah’s political flexibility, Washington is pressuring Nawaf Salam, the Prime Minister, to form a “government free of partisans and politicians” whose ministers are merely employees who carry out the highest orders, most notably obstructing the reconstruction of what was destroyed by Israel, its proxy in the region, during the two months of intensive bombardments of Lebanon that started in September and lasted until November.
This has been confirmed by the possibility of US President Donald Trump’s participation in the opening ceremony of the largest intelligence complex in West Asia – which they call the new US embassy in Beirut – which will recruit about two thousand US political, security and military personnel.
What is happening is nothing but the Plan B of the failed war in the region. Immediately after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, and amid the Israeli incursion, al-Julani’s (Ahmed al-Sharaa) position was decisive regarding the elimination of the Palestinian resistance in Syria, especially in the border area with Lebanon. Al Julani reiterated his will he has no intention to fight “Israel”.
According to Al Akhbar newspaper’s leaks, during his visit to Damascus, Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, was repeatedly asked, “In your opinion, is Anwar Sadat considered a traitor?” Mikati did not answer al-Julani. The latter addressed him: “I thought about it for a long time. I have studied all the revolutions in the world, and I reviewed the ideologies and forces that the Arab nation has experienced. Now, I believe that – at that time – if I were in Sadat’s place, I would have done the same thing!”
Obviously, al-Julani did not miss an opportunity to please Washington as further leaked information has revealed his intention to grant Syrian citizenship to all Palestinian refugees in Syria.
Meanwhile, the Israeli enemy attaches great importance to the meeting that will bring together Netanyahu and Trump next week. There are no definitive estimates regarding the future of the region, as all assumptions remain valid, especially in light of the presence of a volatile personality like Trump, a factor that Netanyahu bet on.
PakFactor
Elite Member
Diplomacy requires strength; without strength, it's just chit-chat. None would take you seriously.
Kyussis
Trusted Member
Iran is not right next door to Israel and the Israelis are not occupying parts of Iran like they are in Syria. Nice try "Numbnuts"!
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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