Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[unconventional]

You forget to realize, most Lebanese are actually anti-Hezbollah to the point where they will gladly let Israel annex South Lebanon. These are "Phoenician" LARPing Christians, Sunnis. Hezbollah always had to operate within its ability to act on this wavering base of political support. It's why it needed to keep provoking Israel, to convince these other Lebanese (the majority) that it's a necessary evil. Your average Lebanese is of the mind that "let's not provoke the Israelis, they won't come after us" and frankly I'm sure they don't care enough to confront the reality that the Greater Israel project means their extermination. They're up to their necks in denial. They live for momentary enjoyment. This is not the iron character needed for national survival, and it a sign of a decadent people on their terminal decline.

And even with all the political sympathy of watching an actual genocide committed on fellow Arabs next door, Hezbollah was wiped in 4 days. It was a massive paper tiger primarily concerned with lofty Islamic Republic ideals of Shi'a martyrdom and "fighting with honor". You don't fight a serial killer with one hand tied behind your back, especially when he's larger than you. You do whatever it takes, whatever depravity, whatever skullduggery, whatever extreme to blind, deafen, mutilate, kill this serial killer so that he cannot threaten your people. Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran never understood this. They always thought they could play nice and that the other side had human conscience.

Agreed with most of your comment, except the part that it was wiped in 4 days.

I don't think it has been wiped at all. Senior leadership was killed, and replaced with new leadership.

Their communication systems were compromised, and I believe an assessment has been made to assess this.

I am sure most of Hezbollah's weapons and tunnels are intact. The reason for my belief is that Israel has used significantly powerful weapons for a longer time in Gaza (compared to Hezbollah); but there is still a consensus that much of their tunnel network is still intact:

An ‘estimated 40% of Hamas tunnels’ still remaining, Israeli expert tells TML

IDF is continuing to find weapons depots, Hamas terrorists, and tunnels. Hamas' military abilities cannot be defeated as quickly as critics of the IDF strategy would like to believe.

www.jpost.com

If Israel is saying 40%, the true number could be as high as 60-70%.

The thing that Hezbollah does not have in Lebanon that Hamas has in Gaza is public support. But I think they should have made that assessment prior to entering the Israel-Gaza conflict.

The problem with Hezbollah is not their military capabilities, but their leadership's decision making. They are preserving their weapons, they can still cause Israel a lot of damage; but they are refraining from entering the battle again, as they are afraid of the backlash from the Lebanese society.

In its case, it is stuck between its identity as a political party and a military organization.

 

[Persian Gulf]

a) Not sure about levels of infiltration in Hezbollah and Iran, but if there are such high levels; then maybe they should not be even part of the axis of resistance. Or even having an "axis of resistance".

Israel knew exactly when Hezbollah was going to attack and how, and was able to (and still is) track the location of commanders 24/7. Israel was hyper focused on Iran and Hezbollah at the expense of Gaza, hence Hamas' success in fooling Israel.

Simple fact is sharing the attack increases the risk of leaks.

b) Hezbollah is an inherently defensive group in Lebanon; but took an offensive position in Syria in 2015-16 and won.

They were backed by SAA and RuAF in Syria and were fighting other militias, not a state

But even if a land operation inside Israel was not feasible, striking more rockets per day would have severely depleted the Israeli missile defense systems. They were already getting depleted in Northern Israel (Haifa) when the pager attacks happened.

The only way to win this war would have been to increase the cost for Israel, which the axis of resistance did not do. They were extremely defensive, self-preserving; and not really in it to defeat their enemy.

I believe Israel had mapped out the majority of Hezbollah's rockets and had pre-emptively struck most of them. Alternatively, systematically assassinating the key commanders and operators disrupted Hezbollah's plans to be able to fire heavier missiles.

c) Although the Houthis are 1800km, and never really involved against Israel the way Hezbollah was; but they did (and still) cause severe pain for the Israelis. When Hezbollah had displaced 80k Israelis from the North, the Houthis targeted Eilat Port, and blocked the Red Sea; and their constant missile fire caused a lot of pain for Israeli citizen in south and central Israel.

Houthis have not faced airstrikes from Israel; but they have been facing attacks from the US; and for many years as well (Saudi Arabia/US attacks). However, they have chosen to remain steadfast with the people of Gaza, and the world respects them. Unfortunately Hezbollah has lost a lot of respect.

I don't agree. Hezbollah caused infinitely more pain for Israel than Yemen. Only a handful of Yemeni missiles impacted anywhere in Israel and only one strike killed anyone. Meanwhile one successful Hezbollah drone strike led to 60 IDF casualties and another directly hit Bibi's personal home.

Yemen has faced Israeli airstrikes on two occasions. Israel attacked the Hodeida port infrastructure and electrical infrastructure to create big fires for their optical propaganda victory.

 

[unconventional]

They were backed by SAA and RuAF in Syria and were fighting other militias, not a state

My point was that they were able to operate in an offensive posture successfully. So they can do more than defend. They are an organized group with well trained fighters.

The Israeli military/ground force is not very professional either, in fact they are very poorly trained; and there are many volunteers and part time soldiers in their ranks as well.

I don't agree. Hezbollah caused infinitely more pain for Israel than Yemen. Only a handful of Yemeni missiles impacted anywhere in Israel and only one strike killed anyone. Meanwhile one successful Hezbollah drone strike led to 60 IDF casualties and another directly hit Bibi's personal home.

Yemen has faced Israeli airstrikes on two occasions. Israel attacked the Hodeida port infrastructure and electrical infrastructure to create big fires for their optical propaganda victory.

Houthis might have killed hardly any Israelis, Hezbollah killed more sure.

But Hezbollah did not cause mass casualties in Israel either, only a handful more. Hamas obviously killed a lot more Israelis in October 07, but since October 07; of course they haven't.

My point is not about the number of people killed per se. But it was about Israel incurring a heavy cost.

Houthis fired very few missiles compared to Hezbollah of course, but that could also be because Houthis are very far from Israel, whereas Hezbollah is next door. Hezbollah also had capability of firing a lot more, heavier missiles at Israel, which it did not. It's not that it could not, it's just that it was caught in two places, and there was indecision.

The Houthis have been attacked by US/Saudi Arabia for many years now. Their country has had to undergo famine, destruction and terrorism for many years now, longer than Hezbollah have in Lebanon; but have remained steadfast.

We will have to learn to agree to disagree.

 

[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

You guys keep saying Hezbollah fought well, all I saw were videos of them being blasted shamelessly, Israelis ransacking their dorms, dead fighters, and massive bombardments of their defenses and infrastructure. In return every video coming from Hezbollah was some dramatic-music-having nonsense that culminated in a rocket spinning toward a radio tower. From these videos, from the reports that units were routed, from their leadership killed with such ease, from their communications disrupted spectacularly, from the pager attacks, and ultimately from Hezbollah withdrawing north without getting any terms met, and now Israeli paying no respect to the ceasefire... it looks like Hezbollah was a crappier militia than Hamas.

I don't have any faith that the Iranian government will ever learn from this that nothing substitutes an actual conventional military and actual symmetrical deterrence.

 

[Persian Gulf]

My point was that they were able to operate in an offensive posture successfully. So they can do more than defend. They are an organized group with well trained fighters.

The Israeli military/ground force is not very professional either, in fact they are very poorly trained; and there are many volunteers and part time soldiers in their ranks as well.

IDF reservist force is very well equipped and trained though not as well trained as their permanent forces of course

Houthis might have killed hardly any Israelis, Hezbollah killed more sure.

But Hezbollah did not cause mass casualties in Israel either, only a handful more. Hamas obviously killed a lot more Israelis in October 07, but since October 07; of course they haven't.

Since October 7th Hamas killed more Israelis (c. 400) than Hezbollah and Houthis combined

My point is not about the number of people killed per se. But it was about Israel incurring a heavy cost.

internal displacement of 60,000+ settlers in the north, daily rocket alerts in Haifa and across the north, cost of large ground invasion, etc all far surpass the cost from a few ballistic missiles fired from Yemen per week

Hezbollah also had capability of firing a lot more, heavier missiles at Israel, which it did not. It's not that it could not, it's just that it was caught in two places, and there was indecision.

we can only speculate as to why this didn't happen

The Houthis have been attacked by US/Saudi Arabia for many years now. Their country has had to undergo famine, destruction and terrorism for many years now, longer than Hezbollah have in Lebanon; but have remained steadfast.

Yemenis are not used to anything different, but most Lebanese are. And Ansarallah are the sole governing authority for majority of Yemen, while Hezbollah is not. so Houthis have significantly more freedom of action relative to Hezbollah in Lebanon

 

[Persian Gulf]

You guys keep saying Hezbollah fought well, all I saw were videos of them being blasted shamelessly, Israelis ransacking their dorms, dead fighters, and massive bombardments of their defenses and infrastructure. In return every video coming from Hezbollah was some dramatic-music-having nonsense that culminated in a rocket spinning toward a radio tower.

that is not a fair assessment. many Hezbollah fighters fought admirably in terrible odds, single handedly resisting IDF platoons until the IDF calls in an air strike on their position. maybe of these videos went viral as they were recorded by IDF quadcopters and showed Hezbollah fighters staying calm and resisting on multiple fronts on their own. I will post the videos later.

 

[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

that is not a fair assessment. many Hezbollah fighters fought admirably in terrible odds, single handedly resisting IDF platoons until the IDF calls in an air strike on their position. maybe of these videos went viral as they were recorded by IDF quadcopters and showed Hezbollah fighters staying calm and resisting on multiple fronts on their own. I will post the videos later.

If you can. Perusing X one gets the idea that these guys were just a bunch of j33ts that got wrecked single handedly.

 

[Persian Gulf]

If you can. Perusing X one gets the idea that these guys were just a bunch of j33ts that got wrecked single handedly.

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[unconventional]

that is not a fair assessment. many Hezbollah fighters fought admirably in terrible odds, single handedly resisting IDF platoons until the IDF calls in an air strike on their position. maybe of these videos went viral as they were recorded by IDF quadcopters and showed Hezbollah fighters staying calm and resisting on multiple fronts on their own. I will post the videos later.

They fought admirably, Israel was not able to push Hezbollah back in the ground war.

But it was able to achieve that from the ceasefire. Israel was able to achieve its objectives from the ceasefire.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They fought admirably, Israel was not able to push Hezbollah back in the ground war.

But it was able to achieve that from the ceasefire. Israel was able to achieve its objectives from the ceasefire.

Hezbollah had no answer to Israel leveraging its air dominance to use terrorism (carpet bombing Beirut) to blackmail Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire and defer to the authority of the Lebanese state (at least temporarily)

the war was a disaster for Hezbollah, bad decisions and calculations from the start

 

[unconventional]

IDF reservist force is very well equipped and trained though not as well trained as their permanent forces of course


Since October 7th Hamas killed more Israelis (c. 400) than Hezbollah and Houthis combined


internal displacement of 60,000+ settlers in the north, daily rocket alerts in Haifa and across the north, cost of large ground invasion, etc all far surpass the cost from a few ballistic missiles fired from Yemen per week


we can only speculate as to why this didn't happen


Yemenis are not used to anything different, but most Lebanese are. And Ansarallah are the sole governing authority for majority of Yemen, while Hezbollah is not. so Houthis have significantly more freedom of action relative to Hezbollah in Lebanon

IDF reservist forces are not well trained. Israel's active military personnel are 169k, and reserves of 465k. To shore up their forces, they need volunteers from the US and Western nations (these are not well trained people).

I was talking about the Israelis killed inside Israel, not in Gaza. But my point was not about the number of Israelis killed anyways.

Yes, internal displacement of 60000 settlers in the north through daily rocket alerts, and the cost of large ground invasion; I accept Hezbollah did all of that. I accept in all my posts that Hezbollah played a much more active role in directly confronting Israel. But I honestly think you are not giving the Houthis enough credit, the Houthis blocked the Red Sea, launched ballistic missiles from 1800 km away; Eilat Port went bankrupt because of the Houthis. In fact, the weapons used by the Houthis were the ones that Hezbollah for the most part was preserving (they mostly launched cheap drones, only a few sophisticated ballistic missiles).

Ansarallah had to face famine, a foe in Al-Qaeda, attacks from Saudi Arabia/US (and their clandestine support for Al-Qaeda). If they were still more popular in Yemen, than Hezbollah were in Lebanon; then we should explore that in more depth as well.

 

[Garcia Sea]

The dangers of pacifism – this cannot be overstated, no matter how many times it's emphasized.
Compared to the brutality and ferocity of the West, the Shia people are far too moderate.
Bullies target aggressive children, right?
Of course not – bullies target cowardly children who avoid conflict.
Only by adding a bluff, like Kim Jong-un, who seems ready to abandon everything and fight like a madman, can the West be deterred.
He is a far wiser man than the weak leaders of the Middle East.
A truly wise man is one who, without concern for his own honor, is willing to be thought mad or bear the stigma of infamy to protect his country.

 

[hyperman]

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[Persian Gulf]

some group (not Hezbollah) fired 2 small rockets into Israel from south Lebanon today and in response Israel bombed a building in Beirut

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[Persian Gulf]

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4 Israeli airstrikes destroy a building in Beirut

Hezbollah is expected to respond. the ceasefire is on the verge of total collapse, although Israel never respected it to begin with