Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Nuffle]

30%+ is pretty good for first small waves, in my opinion.

we have to consider massive asymmetry in inventories: Israel is estimated to have c. 300-400 Arrow interceptors + c. 90 THAAD interceptors = 400-500 total ABM interceptors (50% operational at any one time, the rest in reserve for reloads)

from 180 missiles fired in TP2, if 1/3 failed, 1/3 impacted, and 1/3 intercepted = c. 60 interceptors depleted

120 missiles fired in TP1: 30% failed, 10% impacted, 60% intercepted = 72 interceptors depleted

so already c. 25-30% of their entire inventory is gone (on a very conservative basis assuming 1 interceptor per target missile, which is not true in practice). they have to preserve interceptors for cities and will increasingly not attempt to defend other targets (as we saw in Nevatim in TP2). so naturally with time the penetration rate will increase (as we see in Russia).

IRI officials talk about increasing capacity for much larger attacks than TP2, meaning launch of 1000+ missiles at once.

in that scenario the penetration rate will be insignificant, only the accuracy and lethality of the warheads will matter.

In my opinion, it is not yet. The strikes demonstrated that Israel has ABMs to counter the first strike, although we do not know about the subsequent waves. With the October strike, Israel must clearly have realized that it may have no choice but to accumulate a large stockpile of Arrow ABMs to counter subsequent strikes. Of course, the same conclusion may have reached the Iranian high command, which clearly must have further increased missile production and accumulated even larger stockpiles in case of a possible mass attack against its enemies. But the point remains that in a high-intensity war, the rate of missile burn-up is almost always underestimated, especially in the initial phase.

The case of Nevatim that you mention is interesting, an open, unprotected but quite large area. Israel can save ABMs here by simply dispersing its aircraft, relying on luck and the inaccuracy of Iranian MRBMs to maintain the operational base. Other cases deserve some more detailed analysis. Iran could change its approach, focusing on a single target at a time, and attacking one target at a time in a massive manner, which would increase the penetration rate. Accumulating the initial strike by targeting Israeli and American ABM targets and radars, would increase the penetration rate of subsequent strike waves, but could exhaust the ABM missiles and destroy the ABM/SAM sites.

 

[Nuffle]

Zero intercept footage from TP1,TP2. That is not to say Israel did not intercept them, however we would have expected footage had the rate been as high as 70%. This is a reasonable and logical assessment / ask.

We did however see several failed intercepts - clearly missing targets. This compounds the above assessment.

70 % unaccounted for Possibilities:

- May or may not have been intercepted. Improbable that 70% were intercepted by SAM.
- May or may not have failed. Failure is more likely than SAM intercept.
-May or may not have struck unknown / unpublished targets. We will never know...

Fact:

- SAM redundant in saturation style attack.

I don't think such a high rate of 70% can be achieved in the first wave of attack, but a conservative estimate would be a penetration rate of at least 50%.

 

[Nuffle]

It's none sense , it's way higher then 31% , Persian gulf is trying to save Israel's face and is making up stuff , not all missiles were aimed at those two bases and we not have the informations an all hits.

That's what I would expect.

 

[tsunset]

Iran to pre-emptively strike Diego Garcia (low quality source)

Iranian military urges 'immediate' preemptive strike against US

Iran’s military has called for a preemptive strike on a US base in the Indian Ocean before strategic bombers stationed there can be deployed to attack targets

www.israelhayom.com

 

[Liquidator]

Iran to pre-emptively strike Diego Garcia (low quality source)

Iranian military urges 'immediate' preemptive strike against US

Iran’s military has called for a preemptive strike on a US base in the Indian Ocean before strategic bombers stationed there can be deployed to attack targets

www.israelhayom.com

The American terrorists are not accustomed to preemptive strikes on their judeo-christian terror bases.

Wonder if they've ever factored that in to their terror-battle plans? Interesting thought.

If the American terrorists plan to go all out with a shock and awe terrorist attack on Iran, then logically speaking a preemptive strike on the American terrorist base makes sense? They won't have much to loose?

It's a shame that our resident American terrorist goy no longer frequents to provide his invaluable terrorist insight.

 

[KingQamaR]

Omg, build up with the B2 by US , Iran should look at Iraq … that’s what’s coming omg. Air campaign.

 

[tsunset]

The real deterrence against USA is test of nuclear weapon. If only Iran could do that and at the same time crazy mullahs stop threatening neighbour sunni states.

Iran never threatened neighbor states UNLESS they participate or house troops/assets attacking Iran or deliberately funds propaganda outlets

And they didn't name any state, but rather "anyone that houses threats to Iran, no matter the country, will receive punishment"

This mostly only concern the PGCC and Azerbaijan

 

[KingQamaR]

The real deterrence against USA is test of nuclear weapon. If only Iran could do that and at the same time crazy mullahs stop threatening neighbour sunni states.

Like Iraq having WWDs , right ? Iran program has been dead in water when Pakistanis stopped nuclear proliferation in 2000s

 

[Lulldapull]

Some new footage of the Nevatim AB during the missile attack:

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[ToddE]

Like Iraq having WWDs , right ? Iran program has been dead in water when Pakistanis stopped nuclear proliferation in 2000s

Not exactly. Post 1990s when Iranian IR-2/2M came into being and onwards towards IR-4/4M, IR-6 and IR-8/9 now at 25 SWU, all of these have nothing to do with pakistan or actual original European Designs (Dutch-German URENCO gave birth to both Iran and Pakistani enrichment). Not even a single shred of evidence exists since.

Dr. Abdolghadeer Khan took German-Dutch Urenco patent of G1 and V1 centrifuges from his job, these patents became P-1 and IR-1 in Pakistan and Iran in 1980s. Beyond that no connection between two state's nuclear program exists. Iranian program under Dr. Fakhrizadeh moved to C-fiber centrifuges in 1990s with IR-2/2M which is unique to Iran, even patented under Fakhrizadehs name.

This is the IAEA published time based data structure of Iranian Centrifuges, once can see the native designs taking over around 1990s.

MODEL​	CAPACITY (SWU/yr)[3]​	ROTOR ASSEMBLY MATERIAL[4]​	FIRST TESTED[5]​	# INSTALLED​	# IN PRODUCTION MODE[6]​
IR-1	~0.8[7]	Aluminum + maraging steel	1980s-1990s	Total: 7260 at FEP:[12] 6204 at PFEP: 12 at FFEP: 1044	Total: 7260 at FEP:[12] 6204 at PFEP: 12 at FFEP: 1044
IR-2m	~4-5[8]	Maraging steel + carbon fiber	1990s	Total: 7065 at FEP:[13] 6786 at PFEP: 279 at FFEP: 0	Total: 4974 at FEP:[13] 4698 at PFEP: 276 at FFEP: 0
IR-4	~4-5[8]	Carbon fiber	2009	Total: 3451 at FEP:[13] 3084 at PFEP: 367 at FFEP: 0	Total: 2449 at FEP:[13] 2088 at PFEP: 361 at FFEP: 0
IR-5	6-10[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2013	Total: 31 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 31 at FFEP: 0	Total: 28 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 28 at FFEP: 0
IR-6	6-10[9]	Carbon fiber[11]	2013	Total: 2865 at FEP:[13] 522 at PFEP: 601 at FFEP:[14] 1742	Total: 2165 at FEP:[13] 522 at PFEP: 423 at FFEP:[14] 1220
IR-6s	3-6[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2013	Total: 21 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 21 at FFEP: 0	Total: 20 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 20 at FFEP: 0
IR-7	11-20[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2019	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0
IR-8	16-24[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2017	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0
IR-8B	10-15[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2019	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0
IR-9	34-50[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2021	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0

 

[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

Iran to pre-emptively strike Diego Garcia (low quality source)

Iranian military urges 'immediate' preemptive strike against US

Iran’s military has called for a preemptive strike on a US base in the Indian Ocean before strategic bombers stationed there can be deployed to attack targets

www.israelhayom.com

Some bloke in Majles saying "you should strike the base first" hardly amounts to "Iran to pre-emptively strike..." and what would the point be of announcing a pre-emptive strike? This is Jewish slop at its finest, ignore this article. They're priming American minds to kill Iranians.

 

[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

Omg, build up with the B2 by US , Iran should look at Iraq … that’s what’s coming omg. Air campaign.

Problem is Iran doesn't have missiles that can reach 4,500 km (Diego Garcia) and they are inaccurate as f-, meaning yet again Ali Khamenei and his common-sense defying approach has cornered Iran into war. Best thing Iran can do now is prepare civilian and military centers for strikes, ensure the protection of nuclear sites, and test that nuclear device and ICBM. Which I doubt they will do, because the Islamic Republic was put in place (via coup) to ensure Iran remains a self-defeating, crippled nation, ripe for the time when great powers can come and rape its people, divide its land, and take its resources.

 

[Liquidator]

Problem is Iran doesn't have missiles that can reach 4,500 km (Diego Garcia) and they are inaccurate as f-, meaning yet again Ali Khamenei and his common-sense defying approach has cornered Iran into war. Best thing Iran can do now is prepare civilian and military centers for strikes, ensure the protection of nuclear sites, and test that nuclear device and ICBM. Which I doubt they will do, because the Islamic Republic was put in place (via coup) to ensure Iran remains a self-defeating, crippled nation, ripe for the time when great powers can come and rape its people, divide its land, and take its resources.

Listen kid
Take a break.

Most of your posts are nonsense.

 

[KingQamaR]

Not exactly. Post 1990s when Iranian IR-2/2M came into being and onwards towards IR-4/4M, IR-6 and IR-8/9 now at 25 SWU, all of these have nothing to do with pakistan or actual original European Designs (Dutch-German URENCO gave birth to both Iran and Pakistani enrichment). Not even a single shred of evidence exists since.

Dr. Abdolghadeer Khan took German-Dutch Urenco patent of G1 and V1 centrifuges from his job, these patents became P-1 and IR-1 in Pakistan and Iran in 1980s. Beyond that no connection between two state's nuclear program exists. Iranian program under Dr. Fakhrizadeh moved to C-fiber centrifuges in 1990s with IR-2/2M which is unique to Iran, even patented under Fakhrizadehs name.

This is the IAEA published time based data structure of Iranian Centrifuges, once can see the native designs taking over around 1990s.

MODEL​	CAPACITY (SWU/yr)[3]​	ROTOR ASSEMBLY MATERIAL[4]​	FIRST TESTED[5]​	# INSTALLED​	# IN PRODUCTION MODE[6]​
IR-1	~0.8[7]	Aluminum + maraging steel	1980s-1990s	Total: 7260 at FEP:[12] 6204 at PFEP: 12 at FFEP: 1044	Total: 7260 at FEP:[12] 6204 at PFEP: 12 at FFEP: 1044
IR-2m	~4-5[8]	Maraging steel + carbon fiber	1990s	Total: 7065 at FEP:[13] 6786 at PFEP: 279 at FFEP: 0	Total: 4974 at FEP:[13] 4698 at PFEP: 276 at FFEP: 0
IR-4	~4-5[8]	Carbon fiber	2009	Total: 3451 at FEP:[13] 3084 at PFEP: 367 at FFEP: 0	Total: 2449 at FEP:[13] 2088 at PFEP: 361 at FFEP: 0
IR-5	6-10[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2013	Total: 31 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 31 at FFEP: 0	Total: 28 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 28 at FFEP: 0
IR-6	6-10[9]	Carbon fiber[11]	2013	Total: 2865 at FEP:[13] 522 at PFEP: 601 at FFEP:[14] 1742	Total: 2165 at FEP:[13] 522 at PFEP: 423 at FFEP:[14] 1220
IR-6s	3-6[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2013	Total: 21 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 21 at FFEP: 0	Total: 20 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 20 at FFEP: 0
IR-7	11-20[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2019	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0
IR-8	16-24[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2017	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0
IR-8B	10-15[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2019	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0
IR-9	34-50[9]	Carbon fiber[10]	2021	Total: 1 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 1 at FFEP: 0	Total: 0 at FEP: 0 at PFEP: 0 at FFEP: 0

My point is not to ridicule your progress. It's not as easy as it says to build nuclear weapons without access to high end technology. Only few countries did it on their own, other few stole it. Iran neither has the ability to build it on their own, nor the capability to steal it. However you are still trying to master this ultimate weapon.

 

[KingQamaR]

Problem is Iran doesn't have missiles that can reach 4,500 km (Diego Garcia) and they are inaccurate as f-, meaning yet again Ali Khamenei and his common-sense defying approach has cornered Iran into war. Best thing Iran can do now is prepare civilian and military centers for strikes, ensure the protection of nuclear sites, and test that nuclear device and ICBM. Which I doubt they will do, because the Islamic Republic was put in place (via coup) to ensure Iran remains a self-defeating, crippled nation, ripe for the time when great powers can come and rape its people, divide its land, and take its resources.

It must be so weird-weird being the Tehran Government watching this get staged, and knowing you cant do a damn thing about it