Let’s recap.
Spectrum ascendancy achieved during initial skirmish - 5 aircraft splashed.
Did the armed forces send in drones to capture footage of the wreckage? This could provide the irrefutable proof everyone is looking for.
Unfortunately, from here onwards, it is a story of unprofessionalism. Instead of taking the initiative and imposing a relentless anti-IADS campaign to lock in your dominance, you literally sat comfortably behind your own IADS, comfy in your delusion of spectrum dominance.
The enemy started probing you and DGISPR is on record saying we had to turn off our air defence systems because the system gave the indication it is being ‘tracked’. This is technically wrong. Tracking by its very nature is passive. You cannot know when you are being tracked. What most likely happened is that the enemy learnt the pattern of your frequency hopping and started jamming you. Even after this eye opener, they shamelessly kept collecting ‘war trophies’ instead of going to the source where the drones were coming from.
Seeing your rank amateur antics, giving empty threats of wait for our response while practicing restraint, the enemy now escalated to Brahmos. You again employed EW tactics and showed amateurish over-confidence. Jam GPS signals? The laser gyro across 100 km is pretty reliable. Forget that, at these ranges the enemy can send one initial missile with telemetry, learn the positions of the control surfaces while observing the trajectory, and then simply employ salvos with slightly adjusted parameters for control surfaces until he scores a hit. The enemy doesn’t just buy the Brahmos, he manufactures it. He probably has it in the hundreds to thousands. And he can play with you all day long until he gets his parameters right and doesn’t rely on GPS.
Use microwaves to fry circuits? They can be shielded against.
You NEEDED a hard kill system in large numbers and the pathetic air chief showed unprofessionalism, naïveté, and just sheer stupidity when he did not include hard kill in the plans. You were screwed from the beginning and instead of going all out to take out the threat before it can materialise, you kept restraining yourself, as if this is a schoolyard and Miss will give you a gold star.
The enemy, gobsmacked at your sheer stupidity, violated one red line after the other. Water was already closed. You thought he will go by the predetermined playbook you agreed upon as gentlemen: no strikes on major airbases and installations. All gentlemanliness gone to dust. The enemy is a vile Hindutva crazed maniac and you are acting like you are still a schoolboy.
Finally you acted. But consider: according to your own admission, the Beas facility has fired salvos of hundreds of Brahmos. This facility is now EMPTY. And you are proud you targeted it?
The following applies to both sides: don’t be impressed by 30 ft craters in the ground. Filling up runway craters is air warfare 101. That crater only means you spent millions of dollars to dig a hole in the ground. It’s a case of fool and his money parting ways quickly. Same goes for big fires and explosions. It’s a missile striking an airbase. There will be an explosion and a fire. Possibly because flammable material was placed as decoy to give the impression of heavy damage. Ask yourself: did it strike ammo dump? Radar installation? Actual jets on the ground? Personnel? All the rest can be reconstructed.
Taking out S400? Imagine a projectile of 5000 km/hr. This is approx Mach 4. It takes 1.2 mins to cover 100 km. Give S400 30 seconds to start moving at 60 km/hr. In 42 sec it will be 0.7 km away. You need to saturate a circular area with radius 0.7 km. Or you need to predict its movement with perfection. The AVM used extremely carefully calibrated language: we targeted the S400. But the juicy bit is in the logical conclusion: if the S400 is forced to move, you get a window to attack what it was protecting. Because it’s shoot AND scoot: if it shoots it doesn’t scoot, and if it scoots it doesn’t shoot. So the question arises: what was the S400 protecting?
Finally, as the enemy laid waste to all your stupid assumptions of non-escalation and rational behaviour, the NCA meeting was called and the nuclear threat led to de-escalation. If that’s what it takes, you have failed miserably.
The morons in 65 caused a traffic jam and got awards instead of being sacked. This air chief brought us to the brink and will get a medal from a moron nation that can be fed some technical jargon, pumped with religious terminology, and laps up everything it is fed.
