Bangladesh Economy

@Afif @Destranator @AbuShalehRumi @Strider

See the highlighted texts in the article above. These are viewpoints of foreign businesses and their representatives. They are optimistic and are appreciating the changes already taking place.

Complete opposite to the narrative peddled by the online BAL propaganda brigade who are on a mission to portray Bangladesh as a failed state in social media.
I believe the recent waves of violence in the country such as vandalism of businesses are concerted efforts by BAL/India. This is clear failure of intelligence.

Yunus needs to fire all BAL appointees in leadership and take complete control of intelligence agencies.
 
Yunus needs to fire all BAL appointees in leadership and take complete control of intelligence agencies.
I think that misses the point.

The IG should be razor-focussed on quelling turbulence and civic unrest. How it does it needs to be worked out internally. The cat can be of any colour if it catches mice.
 
I think that misses the point.

The IG should be razor-focussed on quelling turbulence and civic unrest. How it does it needs to be worked out internally. The cat can be of any colour if it catches mice.
"Quelling turbulence and civic unrest" cannot be achieved without cleansing intelligence agencies which, for decades, have been focused on suppressing dissent and oppressing critics.

The agencies need to get ahead of the game in order to help the IG pre-empt any organised violence.

I notice certain Indian media outlets repeatedly picking up incidents of violence in Bangladesh ahead of most Bangladeshi outlets - cannot be coincidence.
 
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"Quelling turbulence and civic unrest" cannot be achieved without cleansing intelligence agencies which, for decades, have been focused on suppressing dissent and oppressing critics.
My emphasis was different. It was that instead of striving for ideological excellence, there should be an empirical objective of suppressing dissent and oppressing critics. These are now the mirror images of the former cast of players; those who were supporting are now dissenting, those who were advocates are now critics.

SO, no point in trying to get the pure and reformed elements to stay, and remove the polluted and unregenerate. That will never happen, and will only create internal fissures.

The agencies need to get ahead of the game in order to help the IG pre-empt any organised violence.
How?

That was a platitude of resounding proportions.
If the IG could have achieved that without the help of a friendly post in an online defence forum, surely they would have done so by now.

I notice certain Indian media outlets repeatedly picking up incidents of violence in Bangladesh ahead of most Bangladeshi outlets - cannot be coincidence.
You are over-thinking it.

Indian media outlets are scavengers, and are on the alert for any opportunities for publishing sensational news.

For Bangladeshi outlets, the situation is the opposite. Why should Bangladeshi outlets have an incentive to publish bad news early and good news late?
 
I believe the recent waves of violence in the country such as vandalism of businesses are concerted efforts by BAL/India. This is clear failure of intelligence.

Yunus needs to fire all BAL appointees in leadership and take complete control of intelligence agencies.
These acts of vandalism against businesses are being carried out by the same extremist groups responsible for burning down the Gazi factory, Dhanmondi 32, the Bangladesh Secretariat, the Liberation War Museum, hundreds of mazars, and countless other infrastructures across the country.

Those currently in power and their supporters have direct links to the destruction that has taken place over the last seven months. This becomes increasingly evident through the government's clear lack of interest in punishing the perpetrators, despite having solid video evidence identifying the culprits.

They want to keep the state of anarchy going for as long as they can so that they can postpone the election by citing security concerns and continue sucking the blood of innocent civilians.
 
In a major breakthrough in bulk power tariff restructuring, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has managed to bring down the per-unit cost of electricity from the 1,200MW Matarbari Ultra Super Critical Coal-Fired Power Plant by around 60.60% compared to that of the 1,320MW Rampal Power Plant.
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This is how real "unnoyon" (progress) happens...
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Source
 
In a major breakthrough in bulk power tariff restructuring, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has managed to bring down the per-unit cost of electricity from the 1,200MW Matarbari Ultra Super Critical Coal-Fired Power Plant by around 60.60% compared to that of the 1,320MW Rampal Power Plant.
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This is how real "unnoyon" (progress) happens...
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Source

Good news! Time to renegotiate on other deals now.

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I was hawkish about Bangladesh's economic potential back in 2019-2022. I thought Bangladesh could have been an Asian economic tiger. But that optimism is no longer there.

But economic growth momentum has slowed down a lot since 2023 due to surges in inflation, low consumer spending, and mismanagement of finances. AL government failed to tackle the underlying structural weakness of the country. Bangladesh desperately needed a change. Thankfully, Bangladesh got a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to start afresh by deposing Hasina's regime. We're going through a turbulent post-revolutionary time. And the current government has no mandate to make meaningful structural reforms.

The economic outlook doesn't look so good now. We're looking at 4-5% growth this year.

Do you think the current government is tackling some of the underlying issues to at least build a more firmer foundation for future economic growth?

Do you think we can return to the 7-8% GDP growth?
 
Bangladesh's unemployment rate has surged to its highest level in recent years amid ongoing economic and political instability.

According to the latest quarterly labour force survey released today by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country's unemployment rate stood at 4.63% in the October–December quarter of the current fiscal year as per the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians (ICLS) standards.

This marks a significant increase from 3.95 percent recorded during the same period last year.
Under the 13th ICLS definition, which BBS also still uses, the unemployment rate was reported at 3.69% as of December 2024, up from 3.20% a year earlier.

Moreover, the number of unemployed individuals in the country has risen to 27.3 lakh under the 19th ICLS framework, up by 330,000 from 24 lakh in the same quarter of the previous year. Under the 13th ICLS, the total number of unemployed now stands at 26.1 lakh, also showing a year-on-year increase of 206,000.


Economists attribute the rise in unemployment to high inflation, poor investment climate, and rising bank interest rates, which have discouraged business expansion and job creation.

According to BBS's definition, an individual is considered unemployed if they did not work for at least one hour in the past seven days but were available for work during that period and the following two weeks, and actively looked for paid employment or profit-oriented work in the past 30 days.


The BBS had previously been publishing labour force survey data based on the 13th ICLS guideline of the ILO. However, in line with global practice, where most countries now follow the 19th ICLS framework, BBS recently started releasing data using the updated methodology as well following criticism from experts and stakeholders.


According to BBS, employment estimates vary depending on whether the 13th or 19th guidelines of the ILO are used.

Under the 13th ICLS guideline, individuals are considered employed if they worked for at least one hour in the past seven days for pay, profit, or family consumption – such as producing goods for their own household.

However, the 19th ICLS guideline classifies only those who worked for at least one hour in the past seven days for pay or profit as employed, excluding unpaid family or household work.

As a result, key labour market indicators, such as labour force size, employment, unemployment rate, population outside the labour force, and labour force participation rate, differ depending on which guideline is applied.
 
Thanks to Younus for this ground breaking achievement.
 
India has restricted the import of at least seven categories of Bangladeshi goods, including readymade garments, fruits and processed foods, through its land ports – just a month after Bangladesh banned yarn imports via the same route.

The ban, outlined in a 17 May notification from India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Commerce, stipulates that garments from Bangladesh may now only enter India through Kolkata and Nhava Sheva, Mumbai, seaports.

"All readymade garment imports from Bangladesh shall not be allowed from any land port, however, it is only through Nhava Sheva and Kolkata seaports," reads the circular.
The restrictions will not apply to Bangladeshi goods transiting through India but destined for Nepal and Bhutan, it added.

Other items included in the restriction are fruit, fruit-flavoured and carbonated beverages, processed food products, cotton and cotton yarn waste, finished plastic and PVC goods, and wooden furniture.

Imports of these goods have also been barred from entering India via any land customs station or Integrated Check Post (ICP) in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram.

While India's order does not cite Bangladesh's yarn ban as the reason, many Bangladeshi exporters believe the move is retaliatory.

"We see this as a reciprocal response to Bangladesh's recent restrictions on land-port yarn imports," said Shams Mahmud, a leading garment exporter, told The Business Standard.

He noted that the shift to seaports will increase costs and affect timely delivery, particularly for small exporters. "We supply to several Indian retail outlets. Increased lead times will hurt smaller players in particular."

Mahmud, however, added that since Bangladesh did not restrict Indian imports through seaports, India is unlikely to block Bangladeshi goods via sea either.

Bangladesh's ban on yarn imports through land ports came into effect on 15 April, following lobbying by the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association, alleging that yarn importers were abusing land-port access to under-declared shipments, harming domestic textile mills.

While local spinners welcomed the move, apparel manufacturers opposed it, saying it would raise production costs.

According to National Board of Revenue officials, about three-fourths of yarn imports from India already come via seaports.

Bangladesh imported around $9 billion worth of goods from India in FY24, according to Bangladesh Bank data. In contrast, exports to India during the same period stood at $1.56 billion, as per the Export Promotion Bureau.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, believes the restriction is unlikely to cause significant harm to Bangladesh's garment exports.

However, he fears exports of processed food and other items may take a hit.

"This kind of reciprocal action hurts bilateral trade on both sides," he said. "But India stands to lose more, as Bangladesh imports far more from them."

He added that such issues should be resolved through dialogue, not by trade barriers.

Kamruzzaman Kamal, director at Pran-RFL Group, told The Business Standard that India is a major market for Pran-RFL Group's processed foods, plastic products, furniture, and PVC-finished goods.

"We have made substantial investments in India to serve this market. If India imposes restrictions on the entry of these products, it would be a significant setback for our exports," he said.

"Such restrictions would not only impact Pran-RFL, but also pose serious challenges for other businesses. We hope that both governments will resolve the issue through dialogue and keep the trade routes open," he added.

On 9 April, India withdrew the transhipment facility it had granted to Bangladesh for exporting various items to the Middle East, Europe and various other countries except Nepal and Bhutan.

According to NDTV, it was announced against the backdrop of the statement made by Bangladesh's interim government Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus in China recently that India's seven northeastern states, which share a nearly 1,600 km border with Bangladesh, are landlocked and have no way to reach the ocean except through his country.

The comment did not go down well in New Delhi and also drew sharp reactions from political leaders in India across party lines, according to NDTV.

Indian exporters, mainly from the apparel sector, had also earlier urged the government to withdraw this facility to the neighbouring country, the official added.
 

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