Pakistan has to be careful here, Banking on the Kashmir Valley population to support an invasion has backfired in 1947-49 and again in 1965 leading to heavy losses. The Valley Kashmiris are a lot different from the Azad Kashmiri population, and perhaps the Line of Control is not just a military demarcation but also a cultural, ethnic and linguistic demarcation.
In fact if India had stuck to its secular inclusive agenda, giving cultural space and state level rights it gives to all other states and territories Pakistan would have had zero to negligible support amongst the population. A stark reminder of this status is the situation in IOK in 1972.
NOW, however the situation has dramatically changed because Kashmir is no longer viewed as a territorial dispute but as part of a larger Hindu-Muslim conflict where the fate of the Kashmiris in India is no different from that which is in store for Indian Muslims.
It is an interesting comparison of the attitude of the Indian Muslims versus Kashmiri Muslims in India as it was until 1990.
Indian Muslim viewpoint:
- Until 1992 the Indian Muslims were firmly of the belief that Kashmir as a Muslim majority region was a guarantee of secularism in the rest of India as the population in this sensitive border region adjacent to Pakistan and China could not be alienated. Ironically this was the viewpoint of all the centrist and left wing political parties in India including the ruling Congress Party and all left wing and regional political parties.
Muslims therefore enthusiastically supported India's stance and even volunteered to join the armed forces and serve while stationed in Kashmir.
- Kashmiri Muslim viewpoint:
The Indian Kashmiris were least bothered about the status of their wretched uneducated poverty stricken slum dwelling Indian Muslim brethren, being far more prosperous, educated, healthy and culturally secure than their Indian Muslim counterparts. Article 370 gave them near autonomy and Kashmiris enjoyed privileges in admission to professional education throughout India as well as exclusive rights to jobs and business within Kashmir. They had no fear of communal riots like their Indian Muslim counterparts. With huge subsidies distributed over such a small population their prosperity was at a level far above any of the states in India. So it was not surprising that Kashmiris viewed Indian Muslims as an embarrassment because the so-called Indian Muslim leadership had done little towards improving the lot of their constituents. Kashmiris felt culturally much closer to their Kashmiri Hindu counterparts than Indian Muslims. Which is WHY Kashmiris did not welcome or encourage Indian Muslims to settle or work in Kashmir even in Jammu where an influx would have shifted the demographics somewhat,
ALL this would change from 1990 onwards with the rise of Hindutva in the rest of India. Even by 1992 Kashmiris were so insular ( behind Article 370) that there were no protests over the demolition of the Babri Masjid on December 06, 1992. That is a date that has re-defined not just India but the fate of Kashmir, Pakistan and Bangladesh as well.
