Well, there are only 2 kinds of victories, Tactical and Strategical, Russia is never going to win this war strategically, because to do that, they will need Ukraine completely gone, chance of them cutting off Ukrainian coast is already low enough, it would have taken them about 800 years to roll up every inch of Ukraine. So if they don't need for a tactical victory, what are they chasing?
NATO is not going to collapse because of Ukraine; I mean NATO didn't even send 1/10 of the stuff they spend in Afghanistan (that's 200 billion a year by the way) in Ukraine which should have been a shame to begin with, and there are nothing Russia can get for Ukraine collapse unless they can occupy it, again, as previously said it's not going to happen.
This is different than when China split with USSR, China was not directly engaging in Vietnam, Russia is physically invading Ukraine, you have the luxury to sit across the border and watch the Vietnamese fighting the American, Russia don't have that luxury as they themselves are fighting the Ukrainian. Again, the strategic goal are different.