Patriotism era starts now.
- Israel can only reliably hit Iran with aeroballistic missiles. These are powerful and accurate and Iran cannot intercept them. But they are not likely to be produced in massive numbers for a sustained campaign against Iran. And they cannot reach Fordow.
- Iran's missile waves would be more successful per wave as Israeli interceptors are depleted. We only saw two waves 6 months apart and the missile success rate increased from 9% to 30%. What happens if we see two waves per day? The success rate could plausibly increase to 60%+ very quickly, and then things would look very very bad for Israel very quickly.
- Iran has learned lessons from Operations True Promise I and II, improving reliability of warheads and introducing EO sensor for improved accuracy. With creative methods, this can produce drastically different results (40 precise impacts on Nevatim is hugely destructive compared to 40 off target impacts).
- Israel has been bleeding interceptors to face dozens of Yemeni ballistic missiles in the last few months, using 10 interceptors for 1 Yemeni missiles just yesterday. They are already starting from a lower baseline of inventory.
@ShapurII @GWXP @Hack-Hook @Mehdipersian @Immortals
