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I truly believe that they did not expect the Israeli attack because it was still under negotiation, this was even said by an Iranian military authority on a TV channel, they were only expecting an attack after the negotiations, so they were caught by surprise. Iran should have been on alert and maintained readiness, it was more than evident that an attack would occur in the first half of 2025.
Trump had given them a 60-day ultimatum and it had ended a day before the attack. They should've believed Trump's threats.
Not only that, Pakistan claims they had informed Iran of the incoming attack 24 hours before it happened.

The IR has always been careless and sloppy, unfortunately.
 
Where does Iran Airforce go from here. It was a complete no-show during the 12 day conflict.
Iran’s planners have a serious problem which requires their immediate attention. A country cannot survive without a modern and efficient Airforce.
Iran's advantage is that it is not in a situation like India, which has several fighters from several different countries and developing domestic ones, creating a logistical nightmare. Iran can create an Air Force from scratch.
 
The problem is that there isn't enough time to build an Iranian air force. It takes years to rebuild. What's available is a short-term truce. To understand the game, America and the West are presenting information that the Iranian nuclear program has not been significantly damaged, meaning the mission has not been completed, so they must continue their strikes.

Israel is ready to get rid of Donald Trump so that strikes on Iran can resume. So what's the solution?
Egypt was building an Egyptian air defense system under fire and enemy air attacks. That means the air force is being built immediately, such as training pilots in neighboring countries and employing foreign pilots, just as Turkey employed Pakistani pilots when it faced a pilot shortage.
Iran can also restore its missile program by obtaining complete missiles from North Korea, China, and Pakistan, as well as launch pads to replace those destroyed, so that Iran can destroy all Israeli airfields in a single sortie. The Israelis are preparing for a new round, perhaps building new bunkers to prepare for a strike on Iran, and the Jews will not withstand missile strikes for long. But will they? Iran will persevere.

The Iranian Air Force's visit to Battalion to obtain weapons. China can provide integrated air defense systems, but will it even give Israel the opportunity to deploy air defense missile batteries? Iranian airspace is open to Israeli aircraft, unlike American airspace. Matters are more complicated than some imagine. Iran's vast territory requires numerous and diverse air defense systems. In the 1970s, Egypt, in the initial phase, built 150 medium- and long-range air defense missile batteries, 300 air defense artillery batteries, 2,000 SAM-7 launchers, 1,000 SAM-7 missiles, and 300 air defense radars in a matter of months. It was a less complex network with less sophisticated command and control capabilities than today.

Currently, Iran, with its vast territory, requires complex multi-layered air defense systems, including C5RISR systems, which require a long time to integrate, develop, and deploy. Time is not in Iran's favor, therefore. Iran is facing a major challenge in its missile capabilities, weakening them as quickly as possible. Israel's plan is to weaken Iran with initial strikes, which were carried out over 12 days, followed by a second phase of more complex and intense strikes over longer periods. This will leave Iran's skies and facilities exposed, and its losses heavy due to the lack of an air force to participate in a complex, multi-layered air defense. Things are not as easy as some imagine, and time is not really available.
 
Trump had given them a 60-day ultimatum and it had ended a day before the attack. They should've believed Trump's threats.
Not only that, Pakistan claims they had informed Iran of the incoming attack 24 hours before it happened.

The IR has always been careless and sloppy, unfortunately.
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Attack was planned months in advance and negotiations were a deception.
 
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Attack was planned months in advance and negotiations were a deception.

Obviously, they had planned this for a long time but we don't know what Trump's letter to Khamenei contained. I'm pretty sure Trump had given them a serious hint that they would attack Iran after the ultimatum ends but they didn't take the threat seriously.
 
The problem is that there isn't enough time to build an Iranian air force. It takes years to rebuild. What's available is a short-term truce. To understand the game, America and the West are presenting information that the Iranian nuclear program has not been significantly damaged, meaning the mission has not been completed, so they must continue their strikes.

Israel is ready to get rid of Donald Trump so that strikes on Iran can resume. So what's the solution?
Egypt was building an Egyptian air defense system under fire and enemy air attacks. That means the air force is being built immediately, such as training pilots in neighboring countries and employing foreign pilots, just as Turkey employed Pakistani pilots when it faced a pilot shortage.
Iran can also restore its missile program by obtaining complete missiles from North Korea, China, and Pakistan, as well as launch pads to replace those destroyed, so that Iran can destroy all Israeli airfields in a single sortie. The Israelis are preparing for a new round, perhaps building new bunkers to prepare for a strike on Iran, and the Jews will not withstand missile strikes for long. But will they? Iran will persevere.

The Iranian Air Force's visit to Battalion to obtain weapons. China can provide integrated air defense systems, but will it even give Israel the opportunity to deploy air defense missile batteries? Iranian airspace is open to Israeli aircraft, unlike American airspace. Matters are more complicated than some imagine. Iran's vast territory requires numerous and diverse air defense systems. In the 1970s, Egypt, in the initial phase, built 150 medium- and long-range air defense missile batteries, 300 air defense artillery batteries, 2,000 SAM-7 launchers, 1,000 SAM-7 missiles, and 300 air defense radars in a matter of months. It was a less complex network with less sophisticated command and control capabilities than today.

Currently, Iran, with its vast territory, requires complex multi-layered air defense systems, including C5RISR systems, which require a long time to integrate, develop, and deploy. Time is not in Iran's favor, therefore. Iran is facing a major challenge in its missile capabilities, weakening them as quickly as possible. Israel's plan is to weaken Iran with initial strikes, which were carried out over 12 days, followed by a second phase of more complex and intense strikes over longer periods. This will leave Iran's skies and facilities exposed, and its losses heavy due to the lack of an air force to participate in a complex, multi-layered air defense. Things are not as easy as some imagine, and time is not really available.
Iran needs time, so it has options: Surrender (regime change or a Versailles equivalent of limitation), negotiate (give up the bomb entirely and develop) or go nuclear while facing heavy sanctions.

The first two options, Iran may not be sanctioned depending on the deal that can be made in option two. So, we will see how the leadership will react to this.

In the meantime, it is becoming clearer that the problem is not the IADS, nor the missile force but the incompetence, failure in counterintelligence and defense against drones.
 
I don't think Iran will get Chinese planes. Maybe if you are lucky Russia pulls through with Su-35s.

China has good ties with the countless countries that Iran has damaged ties with, from the perspective of China it doesn't make sense. It pisses too many people off.

And I don't think they will ever risk high tech equipment like J-35 to a country so deeply compromised as Iran, as you know J-35 is a premier frontline platform and Mossad has infiltrated the very IRI.

Russia may provide Su-35s in the future given Iran's aid in the Shahed deal, but Russia also is friends of Israel so it's uncertain.

As such this is all immature talk ignoring important factors above
 
Russia has not supplied any Su-35s so far at all..
Some were saying that 10 kits were delivered and 4 were assembled going through their paces before becoming operational when Israel attacked. If those reports are true is any body's guess.
 
Some were saying that 10 kits were delivered and 4 were assembled going through their paces before becoming operational when Israel attacked. If those reports are true is any body's guess.
All them planes been swatted down like flies over ukraine no? Its been so bad that neither side uses them anymore.

Iran knows exactly what its doing.
 
All them planes been swatted down like flies over ukraine no? Its been so bad that neither side uses them anymore.

Iran knows exactly what its doing.
Both sides are still using fixed wing aircraft. The tactics have evolved and they are both using more and more stand off weapons to hit each other.
 
Both sides are still using fixed wing aircraft. The tactics have evolved and they are both using more and more stand off weapons to hit each other.
yeah sure.......just like how IDF warplanes attacked Iran from 500 miles away on the Sy-Raaq border........

Hundreds of Blue Horizon, Sparrow/ Lora/ Rampage aero-ballistic missiles were launched on Iran.
 
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I don't think Iran will get Chinese planes. Maybe if you are lucky Russia pulls through with Su-35s.

China has good ties with the countless countries that Iran has damaged ties with, from the perspective of China it doesn't make sense. It pisses too many people off.

And I don't think they will ever risk high tech equipment like J-35 to a country so deeply compromised as Iran, as you know J-35 is a premier frontline platform and Mossad has infiltrated the very IRI.

Russia may provide Su-35s in the future given Iran's aid in the Shahed deal, but Russia also is friends of Israel so it's uncertain.

As such this is all immature talk ignoring important factors above
most importantly, they have been into this power proxy game way too early, way beyond Iran's national strength, and we can see it's a double edge sword, now they are running out of time as they are exposed in the open for any meaningful development.
 
Well Iran will have to rethink their strategy around Air force

Should Lock in

(Short Term)
  • J10C (4 Squadrons)
  • JF17 Block III Thunders (4 Squadrons)

(Long Term)
  • Bring in a Western Fighter Jet , Rafale seem like quite available these days (2 Squadrons)
  • Supplement with Sukhoi-30 (2 Squadrons)

Indigenous Development
  • Keep a separate program for a light Medium , fighter Jet produced Locally

Need minimum deterrence
 
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