Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[tsunset]

Back in 2012, things were completely different. Even though they could have attacked our nuclear facilities, they held back because we had real deterrence. Our air defense network was intact, so an attack wasn’t guaranteed to succeed cleanly. And the general consensus was that if they struck, IRI would level Tel-Aviv and Haifa immediately with 10 thousands of missiles and rush to build a bomb. That risk was too high for them.

We also had real regional leverage in Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad and Soleimani was alive and effective. There was real fear of escalation on multiple fronts.

Now it’s different. Our air defenses are degraded. They have near total air superiority. Our allies are gone and our enemies have increased, and we’ve turned into a regime that keeps backing down on its red lines and gives advance notices before striking to avoid real escalation. They realized we’re all talk now. That’s why enriched uranium is basically our last real deterrent. Without it, there’s nothing stopping them.

In 2012 Iran had nothing, not even S-300. S-200 with Hawk and SA-2/HQ-2 were the only systems defending our skies

And to attack Israel, our backbone of missiles were Scud-X Shahab-3 with Sejjil, nothing else

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Whats the mood & morale in Iran?

Whats the popularity of IRI ? like whats the guess estimate that how much percentage of Iranians support IRI & khamenei?

From outside IRI looks fully intact and in control. and it looks like regime change or collapse maynot be possible in forseeable future. Is it so?

 

[Persian Gulf]

lol

UNSC, an institution created by the victors of WW2, and subject to their total control and veto, will save us from the US and Israel

 

[tsunset]

Whats the mood & morale in Iran?

Whats the popularity of IRI ? like whats the guess estimate that how much percentage of Iranians support IRI & khamenei?

From outside IRI looks fully intact and in control. and it looks like regime change or collapse maynot be possible in forseeable future. Is it so?

Probably at all time high

 

[PakAl]

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

It was the Sejluk turks who invaded persia entirely right before the Abbasid fell at the command of the Abbasid and after that they just fell 1-2 years later the Abbasid by itself, Usurped by the Seljuk Turks. (The Seljuk Turks ruled Iran for nearly 160 years)

There is even a hollywood movie about Ibn Sina set in Isfahan during that time right before and after the Seljuks make an incursion..

Hollywood movies made by Jews

 

[ShapurII]

did we have other sources of deterrence before this year? Israel came close to attacking our nuclear facilities many times in the past, even as far back as 2012.

1. Iran had 13,000 kg of 3.5% uranium and a about 200-300 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium before 2013.
2. The US had no weapon to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities. In 2015, the US intelligence community reached a conclusive consensus that the US bunker busters were not powerful enough to cause damage to our underground nuclear infrastructure.
3. Iran was making tremendous progress in nuclear industry, multi-stage missiles, OTH and bi-static radars. Iran's progress was halted after Rohani came to power.
4. Iran had not been infiltrated by pan-Turks like Pezeshkian and Ghazipour. The reformists had been sidelined after the Green movement.
5. They thought the Iranians were pro-IR. Aban 98 and Mahsa Amini protests made them think that Iranians would welcome regime change.
6. The economy was doing great back then. Another factor in public dissatisfaction.
7. Relatively speaking, Israel did not have F-35s back then. Iranian Air Force wasn't completely useless like it is now.
8. Israel didn't have David's sling and Arrow-3 ready in 2012. They probably felt less safe that they do now.
9. We had Syria and Hezbollah next to Israel.
10. They didn't know that the IR had no real red lines. They found out about this one after the assassination of Gen. Soleimani.
11. Oil prices were high back then. The US was afraid that war could make oil prices soar to $200/bbl and the US depended on the Middle Eastern energy.

 

[mangekyo]

what air defences and MRBMs do you think we had in 2012? however bad our situation is now, and it is very bad, our situation in 2012 was a million times worse

Look, I don’t know every detail about our air defenses, but back then Shahab-3 could hit Israel. Hezbollah claimed they had 150,000 rockets ready. Assad had this huge network of old AD systems, not the best, but enough to be a threat to Israeli planes. Plus, Israel didn’t even have F-35s yet. And let’s be honest, IRI really exaggerated its capabilities back then and was way more aggressive under Soleimani.

But the real problem is how IRI kept pulling back from its own red lines. Remember when Soleimani was killed? The whole world held its breath for weeks thinking it could start WW3. And what did we do? A scripted missile strike with advance warning. Then they hit Iranian soil and we gave them TP1. We basically taught them we’re all talk. We emboldened them by showing we’ll do anything to avoid actual war.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Look, I don’t know every detail about our air defenses, but back then Shahab-3 could hit Israel. Hezbollah claimed they had 150,000 rockets ready. Assad had this huge network of old AD systems, not the best, but enough to be a threat to Israeli planes. Plus, Israel didn’t even have F-35s yet. And let’s be honest, IRI really exaggerated its capabilities back then and was way more aggressive under Soleimani.

But the real problem is how IRI kept pulling back from its own red lines. Remember when Soleimani was killed? The whole world held its breath for weeks thinking it could start WW3. And what did we do? A scripted missile strike with advance warning. Then they hit Iranian soil and we gave them TP1. We basically taught them we’re all talk. We emboldened them by showing we’ll do anything to avoid actual war.

we had maybe 500 Shahab-3 with 6 hour prep time and 2km CEP

 

[StrategicBear]

IRGC: the war will end when we decide it will end!

2 days later

Iran accepts ceasefire

Middle Easterners always fought wars like this against Western forces!

Only China, Vietnam and other East Asians are serious and hardcore when fighting Western militaries......

 

[mangekyo]

we had maybe 500 Shahab-3 with 6 hour prep time and 2km CEP

You keep missing the point. Even if our capabilities weren’t top-tier, Israel’s limited capabilities, and the threat of retaliation was credible enough to act as a deterrent.

 

[StrategicBear]

View attachment 132297

All of those countries listed are countries without a Rothschild Central Bank...

 

[StrategicBear]

1. Iran had 13,000 kg of 3.5% uranium and a about 200-300 kilograms of 20% enriched uranium before 2013.
2. The US had no weapon to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities. In 2015, the US intelligence community reached a conclusive consensus that the US bunker busters were not powerful enough to cause damage to our underground nuclear infrastructure.
3. Iran was making tremendous progress in nuclear industry, multi-stage missiles, OTH and bi-static radars. Iran's progress was halted after Rohani came to power.
4. Iran had not been infiltrated by pan-Turks like Pezeshkian and Ghazipour. The reformists had been sidelined after the Green movement.
5. They thought the Iranians were pro-IR. Aban 98 and Mahsa Amini protests made them think that Iranians would welcome regime change.
6. The economy was doing great back then. Another factor in public dissatisfaction.
7. Relatively speaking, Israel did not have F-35s back then. Iranian Air Force wasn't completely useless like it is now.
8. Israel didn't have David's sling and Arrow-3 ready in 2012. They probably felt less safe that they do now.
9. We had Syria and Hezbollah next to Israel.
10. They didn't know that the IR had no real red lines. They found out about this one after the assassination of Gen. Soleimani.
11. Oil prices were high back then. The US was afraid that war could make oil prices soar to $200/bbl and the US depended on the Middle Eastern energy.

I prefer if Iran acted on its red lines.

War is not desired but must fight if need be.

 

[Farhan23]

Middle Easterners always fought wars like this against Western forces!

Only China, Vietnam and other East Asians are serious and hardcore when fighting Western militaries......

I wanna counter this fallacy..

When has China fought any western? That was nearly 90 years ago in North Korea.

Besides there was recently the Afghan-US war, The Syrian-Assad-Russo wars.

Not to forget the so-called Middle easternes occupied more then half of Europe. The Arabs and Turks occupied Europe for centuries.

Spain, Romania, Portugal, South France, Switzerland, Austria, Bulgeria, Greece, Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Hungary, Malta, Sicily, Parts of Italy, Serbia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Albania, Bosnia, Croatia etc etc.

No Chinese or Eastern forces have reached anywhere beyond East Asia

 

[OldTwilight]

why are we acting like this is news

we never insisted on our right to enrich uranium to 60% and we accepted limits to 5% in 2015, so why not now in 2025?

the limit was 3.5 % and guarantee that they provide 20 % enriched uranium for our research and medical reactor