When does the confrontation come between Egypt and Israel?
The confrontation between Egypt and Israeli - a standing possibility, remains a standard of desire for war, but rather as an inevitable achievement of a historical path that has extended for centuries. It is not the result of seven decades, as some think, but its roots date back to nearly two hundred years, when the West began to think about planting a functional entity on the borders of Egypt aimed at dismantling the region and preventing any regional power from ascending.
A large number of researchers and historians, whether in the East or the West, exceeded the question whether the war is coming or not, and the controversy has become only about its timing: when will it happen? How will its circumstances be formed? That is why the real question today is not: "Will Egypt fight a war with the Israeli occupation?", Rather: "When? Under any circumstances?"
To understand this question, the historical context that governs this equation must first absorb. The West, centuries ago, realized that if Egypt united with its surroundings and possessed the initiative, it can establish an empire that threatens the interests of the major powers, just as Napoleon Bonaparte realized during his failed campaign on Egypt.
Indeed, when Muhammad Ali began building his expansion project, and threatened the regional balance, the major powers were united against him in 1840 to stop it. Since then, the idea of the necessity of planting a permanent entity in the region began to prevent its unification, separating Egypt from the Levant, and keeping the region in a state of disintegration and permanent turmoil, in a manner that guarantees the interests of the West and prevents a competitive regional force.
That entity was not only cultivated to occupy a land, but to contain ambitions, and to prevent the emergence of a strong central state that leads the region. The final goal, according to this logic, is to end the historical model of the extended and unified Egyptian state over thousands of years.
Since the establishment of this entity, the Egyptian state realizes that the confrontation is inevitably coming. However, over the decades, this confrontation was not only dependent on political desire, but also with precise conditions related to international and regional time, and internal and external conditions.
As for the occupation, two essentials are essential before taking any direct confrontation with Egypt:
Dismantling the Egyptian strategic balance in its geographical environment: by destroying or exhausting the surrounding Arab armies, especially the Iraqi and Syrian armies, and to weaken the Gulf financial and political support.
The Egyptian home front struck: by weakening national unity, questioning institutions, and reducing the Egyptian army in the eyes of new generations, to ensure that any clash is coming to the popular back.
On the other hand, Egypt realizes that the confrontation should only occur with its own conditions, the most important of which are:
The state's readiness is economically and military: not only for a local superiority over the occupation, but also to withstand a long in the face of the international powers that sponsor it, which still represents the solid nucleus of the existing world order.
The transformation of the international powers of power: from the United States unipolar system, to a multiple system, which China is seeking to achieve an accelerated pace on the economic and military levels. It is estimated that the year 2030 may witness China's overcoming of America in terms of comprehensive power.
In light of this equation, the time is in the interest of Egypt, not the opposite. With the growing Chinese influence, the West began to accelerate its plans to dismantle the region and push towards an early confrontation before the balance of the new powers was completed.
With all of this, the rule of decisiveness in such conflicts remains linked to the exact timing. History teaches us that fateful battles were settled by one day or even hours. For example, the Battle of Ain Jalut, if it was late or advanced one day, the history would have changed. The same is with Hittin, and October.
The next confrontation, then, will not be a tour of a series of wars, but rather a decisive confrontation. The end of the Zionist project may bear, or lose a strategic opportunity for the whole nation. Therefore, the most dangerous thing that might happen is the unfair hurry or provocation that forces Egypt to clash at a time that does not serve its interests.
Conclusion: The confrontation comes, but it will only come on time, with a calculated decision and complete conditions.
@ahmedmubarak87