Khorasan Black Flags
Trusted Member
- Thread starter
- #51,541
Not sure how many rats have been perished 
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Nobody clamed a 99% interception rate. That's a strawman fallacy.
If you are talking about me, I have said multiple times that based on Israeli data, the interception rate was about 44%. They try to hide the real interception rate by claiming that they didn't try to stop the missiles that weren't headed for civilian areas, but that's a lie.
What it has achieved is yet to be determined, but the evidence suggests that they set back Iran's nuclear program by years. As far as the civilian nuclear program on the ground is concerned, it has been obliterated.
The only remaining question is the +400kg of HEU remaining in Iran. And the regime is already in talks with Europe over that, due to be held in Istanbul tomorrow.
1) Not anymore. The IAEA experts are returning to Iran and the regime is in talks with the Europeans now. First session to be held tomorrow at the Iranian consulate in Istanbul.
2) The knowledge is useless without proper equipment and infrastructure.
3) They will find out soon, it seems. The regime is eager to continue "diplomacy", i.e. surrender.
4) No, that's a blatant lie. Our civilian nuclear infrastructure has been obliterated. If Iran does not have covert facilities, it's over for Iran's nuclear program.
5) No, Iran proved that it cannot establish deterrence times and times again. Ain Al-Assad, TP1, TP2 and now TP3. If Iran proved anything, it's that it cannot establish deterrence.
6) Not if ICAC has been damaged.
It is a result of mismanagement. Iran's precipitation average is still twice that of Egypt, yet Cairo doesn't have water and power cuts like we do now. Iran's water crisis is a result of decades of mismanagement and wrong policies in agriculture and population planning.
The Americans can move to a cheaper country because of the strength of the US dollar and many are doing so. Iranians cannot do that as Iranian currency is worthless these days.
Do you realize that the government, as we speak, is discussing coupons for food in Iran for the first 7 deciles of the society? The reason that they are not doing so is monetary issues and lack of funds.
Nationwide average of minimum salary in the US is $11.80 per hour. One kilogram of beef in the US is at most $23. This is as high as it goes, while some cuts are even lower than that at around $11. That's about 2 hours of minimum wage at the worst case scenario.
One kilogram of cheapest beef in Iran is 10-11 hours of minimum wage. Do you see the difference?
Agreed. So, why does the regime continue this needless policy? It seems that both of us agree that it is not our responsibility to fight this war for the Palestinians.
China never asked for this, to be honest. China is not interested in a clash with the US, at least at this point, the Ayatollahs are.
We are back to the time of the Qajar era. I will reiterate what I have said times and times again here. The conservative party is full of Russian shills, and the reformist party is full of Western-backed shills. We do not have independents in Iran anymore.
vmro
Registered Member
So they are under a 50% success rate, what is a realistic rate... they are in a very unwanted position, overestimating the results of their AD means overestimating the firepower of Iranian missiles, which means just several missiles are enough for such devastating effects...
On the contrary regard they are openly saying that their AD is not a match for Iranian missiles...
Hard to resonate anyway...
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
A translation of part of this Israeli Channel 13 report on the Iranian missile strike on the Bazan oil refinery in Tel Aviv:
"Under the fog of war, the damages from fires at the refineries have been concealed since the beginning of the war with Iran. Tonight, we are revealing documentation and the results of missile impacts on one of Israel’s most sensitive facilities."
"A very severe blow was dealt to the power generation station. This is the building you see in front of us."
"Next to those two smokestacks?"
"Yes, those two smokestacks are part of the power station—steam boilers. In fact, this was what supplied the energy needed for all the factories."
"These are the same buildings that exploded in the power station compound; here is the main pipeline bridge that transferred materials between different sections of the plant; and here is the operational area of the petroleum product tankers. These three impacts, together, completely shut down the Bazan refinery.
This plant was one of only two refineries in the country that produced gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and even household cooking gas."
"I said there would be a direct hit, and that the enemy knows exactly where to strike; and that its goal is both contamination and fire—and that’s exactly what they did the next day."
"The blow to the power station suddenly disabled all electricity and steam production at the refinery, and all Bazan Group facilities were paralyzed. We are trying to restore production capacity to the pre-attack state—and as quickly as possible."
"Bazan has effectively shut down. Yes, the Bazan refinery was taken out in a single day—not by us, not by the government, but by Iran."
"Under the fog of war, the damages from fires at the refineries have been concealed since the beginning of the war with Iran. Tonight, we are revealing documentation and the results of missile impacts on one of Israel’s most sensitive facilities."
"A very severe blow was dealt to the power generation station. This is the building you see in front of us."
"Next to those two smokestacks?"
"Yes, those two smokestacks are part of the power station—steam boilers. In fact, this was what supplied the energy needed for all the factories."
"These are the same buildings that exploded in the power station compound; here is the main pipeline bridge that transferred materials between different sections of the plant; and here is the operational area of the petroleum product tankers. These three impacts, together, completely shut down the Bazan refinery.
This plant was one of only two refineries in the country that produced gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and even household cooking gas."
"I said there would be a direct hit, and that the enemy knows exactly where to strike; and that its goal is both contamination and fire—and that’s exactly what they did the next day."
"The blow to the power station suddenly disabled all electricity and steam production at the refinery, and all Bazan Group facilities were paralyzed. We are trying to restore production capacity to the pre-attack state—and as quickly as possible."
"Bazan has effectively shut down. Yes, the Bazan refinery was taken out in a single day—not by us, not by the government, but by Iran."
Last edited:
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Israel claims Iran fired 574 missiles at Israel in 12 days
Israel and the US attempted to intercept 258 of these missiles, intercepting 201/258 (78%), with 57 (22%) successful impacts at these highly protected areas
the remainder of the missiles fired by Iran (316) were not intercepted and many of these impacted in what Israel calls 'unpopulated' areas, such as military bases (see below). though many likely missed and hit open areas too.
57 + 316 = 373 missiles impacted in Israel / 574 missiles fired = 65% overall missile penetration rate (35% interception rate)
the problem is not penetration or quantities, it is accuracy and reliability. this is what is needed to convert missile impacts into achieving military objectives.
@ShapurII
Mighty_Dragon_Strike
Trusted Member
90% missiles interception rate! as per IDF and US zionist dogs
Mighty_Dragon_Strike
Trusted Member
people keep saying, less and less BM were fired as conflict spread..
you have to look at two things:
1. rate of BM production
2. rate of AD missile production.
BM production rate can outstrip AD missile production!
vmro
Registered Member
MIT is as far as I know the most prestigious institution in USA in technology field...
So respected expert from respected American institution is practically considers Iran among nuclear powers, because they got everything they need to create at least 10 nukes in practically no time...
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Yes, my 44% interception rate was based on similar calculations, but initially they claimed Iran had fired 600 missiles.
Overall, they intercepted 40% of the missiles, give or take 5%.
If we had continued to fire more missiles, the interception rate would've likely fallen below 20% after a week. We just needed to keep going.
I think our missiles did fine, it was our drones that disappointed us and was a major blow to our deterrence. And our cruise missiles were not used for unknown reasons, probably because we didn't have enough drones to fire simultaneously at the time.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
missile launch rate did drop dramatically in the final days
even with 80% penetration rate 10 missile launches a day will not achieve anything even with good accuracy let alone with 100-500m CEP
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
Iran mishandled the entirety of the conflict including the ending. If Israel is crazy enough to start again, then hopefully Iran is better prepared and it will be able to extract a very serious economic cost to offset the 10's of billions of dollars of damage that Israel did to Iran through destroying some very very expensive infrastructure in Iran.
By dollar value alone, Israel is many many multipliers head of Iran interms of nominal cost of infrastructure destroyed in Iran versus Israel. It is not about counting number of missiles, but the economic cost of the target that was destroyed and the appropriate retaliation that exacts a similar economic cost.
Last edited:
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
sigh
