India - US Tariff and Relations | News + Updates

Dalit said:
If India opts for Russia, China and BRICS, expect this and much more. We will see the true wrath of Trump.
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I highly doubt that if India is forced to choose a side, it will choose BRICS.

They will yield to American hegemony.
 
side-winder said:
Well obviously things have to stop somewhere. Trump is a nutjob -- maybe just a couple of appeasing tweets from Modi and nomination for peace prize would get the job done 😆
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It will stop, but not the way Pakistanis expect it. I will point you to the recent deal between the UK and India, and what concessions India might have in mind when sitting at the negotiation table. The UK members here expected more favorable terms. When the final agreement was completed, it granted Indian access to the UK to the detriment of what the British people wanted; it even made Pakistani members on this forum flip.

Let's also not forget that India was purchasing Iranian oil and very little, if any, Russian oil until the Biden administration forced it to tilt towards Russia under the G7 price cap. The Biden administration wanted to stabilize prices in the international market. India is now viewed as dependent on cheap oil as a direct input into its economy to fuel its economic growth; what fool would let go of a cheap input that results in cheap output? Only a stupid Pakistani would think otherwise. Thus, India didn't turn towards Russian oil out of loyalty or alliance but due to Western forced hands.

So you see the stupidity of this all. As brother @Musings said, Pakistanis act as if millions of dollars were put into their pockets. Let's, for the sake of argument, go with Pakistani logic: What does Pakistan have that the U.S. needs it can't get elsewhere? You have little to no industrial manufacturing, high-quality pharmaceuticals, software powerhouses, etc.

As my article pointed out, Trump has skipped targeting critical areas of exports, and for good reason. The Pakistani's have one major flaw: they do not look at the data and blindly shoot at the hip.

India’s rope-a-dope strategy will ensure the U.S. doesn't get too aggressive and risk losing India.
 
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hembo said:
Some of the wet dreams in this thread seriously cracks me up. Some people really don't understand India's economy and its geopolitics.
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Best understand fora and social media is 90% a peanut gallery....and peanut galleries have lot of selective itches that need selective scratching all the time.

So narcissism bull pulpit in DC, gets various overnight or more longer term trumpkins, trumpa loompas etc (folks that have all the qualities of trump deep down but dont have NY real estate story to show for it, so end up being no names with all the sociopathic perpetually online angst, fuelled further by bots and echo chamber mobs etc).... until they turn against him on something else like the epstein stuff, israel, Iran B-2 action (right after a nobel peace prize nomination, and then Israel joins that nomination process too lol) or trump becoming more anti-russia suddenly.... whatever it is incl some mix of cultish conspiracy theories against whichever out-group or tribe they hate.

This is problem with lot of folks that hang hats on political persona as be all end all in general....because politics is very tribal in end. India suffers a lot from this too.

Once you filter out the 90% peanut gallery (ignorant, unprincipled or combination of both), you see there's 10% of knowledgeable + principled folks that you get much further with with much less time invested.

These %'s may vary where you go, but more or less the pareto principle which posits 20% is omnipresent as ballpark in every human endeavour.
 
Vkdindian1 said:
Earlier - Trump is dictating everything to India. India is a lackey of the US. This statement emanated, probably from their own past experiences.

Then- Now see, how India falls in line. Since 25% Tariff and penalty due to trade with Russia would be doomsday for India. India has no option but to fall in line.

Later- WTH, DT is mighty unhappy with India. He doesn’t like those who question his authority. As India showed two fingers, the feeling of disbelief and hurt was seen going through the roof. Scores and scores became spokesmen of DT and started conveying his displeasure with India.

Right Now - Mass scale burn has been seen spreading all over. Burnol was seen flying off the shelves.

Likelihood - We will see mass exodus of these experts, very soon, till a new thread starts about imminent Indian downfall.
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As I mentioned elsewhere. The IT/service exports are not covered by all this to begin with. Same thing with remittances.

So thats 200 - 250+ billion per year right now....effectively 0% tariff persevered just like Trump TACO on NAFTA/USMCA coverage (for large majority of goods with CAN and MEX....its what is not covered that is now seeing unprecedented "leverage on 51st state blah" rates of 35%)

Goods wise its about 100 billion....about 60 billion* comes under capital pressure (from US consumer inflation longer term) if the 50% perseveres past end of this month (when it kicks in). Unlikely as there are about 21 days that IND-US will negotiate on these matters to begin with.

*20 billion is roughly the electronics carve out exempted and another 20 billion in pharma generics again carved out for now.

Then it boils down to if the erosion projected on the 60 billion is worth continuing with russian crude refining (whatever the savings are there for India) and however long its projected the RUS-UKR (and Trump hot and cold dalliance with it for double standards leverage on others) war persists etc.

India basically has to work out the bottom line transactional stuff first.

The underlying things that got its market cap from very nominal amount.... to 5 trillion USD it is now by engaging with developed capital markets post cold war era....and everything that is there to work with beyond DC bullpulpit antics.

Other countries have hard time understanding and implementing this (as much as left to be desired in Indian case as it is) even more and so their peanut gallery types (from that larger void created) screech and spam commensurately.

Narcissism goes hand in glove with selective panic button and schadenfreude needs. Larger picture and cold reality is the enemy heh.
 
In case no one posted, this is a major news at NY Times right now.


India, Once America’s Counterweight to China, Is Now Facing Trump’s Wrath​

With threats of tariffs up to 50 percent, President Trump seems to be scrapping America’s plan to turn India into a counterweight to China, declaring instead that it is a “dead economy.”

President Trump all but declared economic war against India on Wednesday, threatening to add a 25 percent punitive tariff for India’s purchases of Russian oil on top of a 25 percent tariff he announced last week. In his second term, Mr. Trump had been expected to marshal India as a friendly counterweight to the challenge posed by China.

But added together, the 50 percent tariff paints India as a political enemy, putting it in the company of Brazil, whose leftist president sparred with Mr. Trump when the country was threatened with a similarly punishing tariff rate. The crisis between India and the United States suddenly looks much bigger than the terms of trade.

The onslaught against India started on July 30, when Mr. Trump declared that India’s economy was “dead.” Until that point, his administration had been angling to reduce India’s trade barriers, but said nothing about its two years of buying Russian oil at a wartime discount.
 
Meengla said:
In case no one posted, this is a major news at NY Times right now.


India, Once America’s Counterweight to China, Is Now Facing Trump’s Wrath​

With threats of tariffs up to 50 percent, President Trump seems to be scrapping America’s plan to turn India into a counterweight to China, declaring instead that it is a “dead economy.”

President Trump all but declared economic war against India on Wednesday, threatening to add a 25 percent punitive tariff for India’s purchases of Russian oil on top of a 25 percent tariff he announced last week. In his second term, Mr. Trump had been expected to marshal India as a friendly counterweight to the challenge posed by China.

But added together, the 50 percent tariff paints India as a political enemy, putting it in the company of Brazil, whose leftist president sparred with Mr. Trump when the country was threatened with a similarly punishing tariff rate. The crisis between India and the United States suddenly looks much bigger than the terms of trade.

The onslaught against India started on July 30, when Mr. Trump declared that India’s economy was “dead.” Until that point, his administration had been angling to reduce India’s trade barriers, but said nothing about its two years of buying Russian oil at a wartime discount.
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Trump is carving out the tariffs. It's not as broad as others had hoped. It spares the majority of Indian exports and affects about $8 billion worth of exports.

PakFactor

Post in thread 'India - US Tariff and Relations | News + Updates'

How will Trump’s 50% tariffs on India impact its economy?​


India’s economy could take a multibillion dollar hit after President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50% — one of the highest levies on any trading partner — over objections to the South Asian country’s oil trade with Russia.

Trump had previously imposed tariffs of 25% on Indian goods due to the country’s high trade barriers.

While only around 20% of India’s goods exports — or 2% of GDP — are U.S.-bound, certain sectors are disproportionately exposed. UBS estimates $8 billion worth of exports are most...
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PakFactor said:
Trump is carving out the tariffs. It's not as broad as others had hoped. It spares the majority of Indian exports and affects about $8 billion worth of exports.

PakFactor

Post in thread 'India - US Tariff and Relations | News + Updates'

How will Trump’s 50% tariffs on India impact its economy?​


India’s economy could take a multibillion dollar hit after President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50% — one of the highest levies on any trading partner — over objections to the South Asian country’s oil trade with Russia.

Trump had previously imposed tariffs of 25% on Indian goods due to the country’s high trade barriers.

While only around 20% of India’s goods exports — or 2% of GDP — are U.S.-bound, certain sectors are disproportionately exposed. UBS estimates $8 billion worth of exports are most...
  • Like
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Bro
Trump will bring the tariffs down and all will be dandy.
The scars will remain and those nations that have been played shouldn't forget and any opportunity as the US falls off its perch - they should pay back in the same coinage
 
Musings said:
Bro
Trump will bring the tariffs down and all will be dandy.
The scars will remain and those nations that have been played shouldn't forget and any opportunity as the US falls off its perch - they should pay ack in the same coinage
Click to expand...

I agree, and I'm sure others will pay it back.
 
Dalit said:
I think that Trump will ease the tarrif pain once Modi accepts dictation. Modi will have to lose face in order to appease Trump. Although Modi is in defiant mood. I think we are going to witness serious damage here. India is going to agitate Trump further by getting closer to Russia and China. BRICS is about to get a boost. The issue with India is that it wants to remain part of Western projects and also remain relevant within Global South. That is a serious conundrum for India.

How Trump will deal with this is going to be very interesting. The pressure is severe for Modi. How will he react and resolve the current crisis?

India has turned this into Global South versus the West. Modi could have told the Russians that buying oil from them is not an option anymore. I am sure the Russians wouldn't make any fuss over this. This could have resolved the issue. Instead, Modi has opted for "sovereignty" and old friend Russia. A very bold, but costly move.
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India had no choice but to align itself with cheap oil. Why shouldn't it?
Na bro - unintended consequences thats what it is
 
PakFactor said:
It will stop, but not the way Pakistanis expect it. I will point you to the recent deal between the UK and India, and what concessions India might have in mind when sitting at the negotiation table. The UK members here expected more favorable terms. When the final agreement was completed, it granted Indian access to the UK to the detriment of what the British people wanted; it even made Pakistani members on this forum flip.

Let's also not forget that India was purchasing Iranian oil and very little, if any, Russian oil until the Biden administration forced it to tilt towards Russia under the G7 price cap. The Biden administration wanted to stabilize prices in the international market. India is now viewed as dependent on cheap oil as a direct input into its economy to fuel its economic growth; what fool would let go of a cheap input that results in cheap output? Only a stupid Pakistani would think otherwise. Thus, India didn't turn towards Russian oil out of loyalty or alliance but due to Western forced hands.

So you see the stupidity of this all. As brother @Musings said, Pakistanis act as if millions of dollars were put into their pockets. Let's, for the sake of argument, go with Pakistani logic: What does Pakistan have that the U.S. needs it can't get elsewhere? You have little to no industrial manufacturing, high-quality pharmaceuticals, software powerhouses, etc.

As my article pointed out, Trump has skipped targeting critical areas of exports, and for good reason. The Pakistani's have one major flaw: they do not look at the data and blindly shoot at the hip.

India’s rope-a-dope strategy will ensure the U.S. doesn't get too aggressive and risk losing India.
Click to expand...

What Trump has done is disrupt the applecart. China seeks more allies to accelerate de-dollarization and this helps to pace the process along exponentially. People are economy!
However, as I did allude earlier... I do not think India wants to take the uncharted path. They had basically been rubbing shoulders with everyone and committing to none. China does seek to dampen the blow... however the two are by their very nature competing economies and none are consumer driven... meaning China cannot do what US offers besides India is not indispensable in any field as China made sure it becomes.
The preliminary conclusion is that India will swallow the bitter pill given no recourse... annouce a large purchase package, stop buying Russian oil and weapons... perhaps even commit to dollar driven trade...

This for those uninitiated is back to Nixon shock days and end of gold standard. He however initiated a perpetual grift in the form of petro dollar and forcing the world to keep consuming dollars for their energy needs. Orange clown is orchestrating it's next phase. Obviously China didn't cave in the first round... but with all the institutional heft and leverage US has many tools, chief amongst them is incumbency... where smaller nations just line up for a draw that perpetually shorts their own economies.
 
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Musings said:
India had no choice but to align itself with cheap oil. Why shouldn't it?
Na bro - unintended consequences thats what it is
Click to expand...

The irony is that the Americans forced India to purchase Russian oil. Now, they expect India to change its policies. Why toss a wrench into a growing economy fueled by cheap oil? The Indian business community will balk and possibly remove Modi; he will not risk it; it's political suicide. Indian industries have an average 4% increase annually in energy needs.

Example: The Indian textile industry has a tight profitability margin of 7-10%. An increase in energy costs by 2-3% results in a profitability reduction of 30% or more.

If you go to higher energy consumption industries, you'll talk about 15-20% energy input costs.
 
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India has played a strategic masters by avoiding and ignoring American tariffs. The Indian economy is far more diverse and independent to be bullied by just one country.

America and Donald Trump has reunited and reinvigorated India.
 
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