Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

From Israeli POV,

- Could not destroy nuclear program on which their entire war narrative was built. Thats a Strategic level failure if the primary goal of the war is not achieved.

- Could not kill the actual IRI leadership so the very system that they say is the ultimate evil they face is still sitting in Tehran with all its tools in hands.

- Could not deter IRGC from striking back in heart of Israel despite killing CoC. Thats again a strategic failure. If the operation was to teach IRGC a lesson then tit failed miserably because the same IRGC kept firing back till the last minute. An undeterred enemy still alive means the operational goal is failed.

- Failed to have any answer to saving their own cities, port, institutions. US kept on supplying them during the war otherwise the SAM numbers dwindled. The interceptions became costly. AIPAC and Epstein files would not always work.

- Could not turn the Iranian public against IRI. Instead by bombing civilians they they rallied the nation around Mullahs the very same way Saddam did.

So what did Israel achieve? Killing civilians, few replaceable few retired legacy generals whose departure probably helped Iran more?



Israeli goals were some random killing civilians on street? Yes IRI is a failure system of incompetent fools. Sanctioned, Isolated. corrupt as hell. What is the Israeli excuse here despite sitting in lap of every global power simulatenously.

I disagree with this entirely.

Our nuclear infrastructure has been severely damaged. Sure, the Israelis had to ask the Americans to do that for them, but nevertheless, it was achieved.

Even if Iran somehow manages to enrich uranium up to 90%, and we end up with enough highly-enriched uranium for 10 bombs, it's still stored in UF6 gaseous state. We need to convert it to uranium metal, and the facility for that has been bombed already. So, even if we generously assume that Iran is still in possession of the HEU and a reliable enrichment method like our centrifuges or LIS at some undisclosed location, unless we have some covert uranium conversion facility, they have already achieved their goal of destroying Iran's latent nuclear capability.

Secondly, they murdered 12 nuclear scientists in Iran. They killed +30 IRGC and Artesh generals. It's very demoralizing. Imagine you're a nuclear scientist and you see that the regime you are working for cannot even defend its highest ranks from Israel. This will dishearten and discourage our forces inside Iran. And in return for that, how many high-ranking Israelis were killed? Zero!

Thirdly, people here assume that Israel has somehow stopped trying to topple the regime and disintegrate Iran. Their plan is on and they're still moving towards that even more than before. As I said, if you see this battle as one lone incident, then yes, you could say Israel failed to achieve their goals, but when you look at it as one battle in a war in greater scheme of things, and future regional plans, then Israel did achieve some success there as well. The fact that we had Baluch and Kurdish separatist attacks afterwards is an indication of what Israel has in mind. Also, the US is still working on some covert takeover of Iran and turn Iran into a tamed state, exactly like what people like Pezeshkian and Araghchi are doing now.

Israel failed to overthrow the regime because of their miscalculations about the Iranian people, not the Iranian regime. They were spot on about the regime's response to their pre-emptive attack. But Iranians did surprise them. They never thought that the Iranians would get so united against them after this. Again, their calculations about the regime and our armed forces were spot on, only Iranians ruined their plans.

 

[Ali_Baba]

From Israeli POV,

- Could not destroy nuclear program on which their entire war narrative was built. Thats a Strategic level failure if the primary goal of the war is not achieved.

- Could not kill the actual IRI leadership so the very system that they say is the ultimate evil they face is still sitting in Tehran with all its tools in hands.

- Could not deter IRGC from striking back in heart of Israel despite killing CoC. Thats again a strategic failure. If the operation was to teach IRGC a lesson then it failed miserably because the same IRGC kept firing back till the last minute. An undeterred enemy still alive and fighting back hard means the operational goal of taking out the generals failed.

- Failed to have any answer to saving their own cities, port, institutions. US kept on supplying them during the war otherwise the SAM numbers dwindled. The interceptions became costly. AIPAC and Epstein files would not always work.

- Could not turn the Iranian public against IRI. Instead by bombing civilians they they rallied the nation around Mullahs the very same way Saddam did.

So what did Israel achieve? Killing civilians, few replaceable few retired legacy generals whose departure probably helped Iran more?



Israeli goals were some random killing civilians on street? Yes IRI is a failure system of incompetent fools. Sanctioned, Isolated. corrupt as hell. What is the Israeli excuse here despite sitting in lap of every global power simulatenously.

The nuclear infrastructure it did destroy in Iran must have been worth tens of billions of dollars? A lot of expensive infrastructure was destroyed, far more than what Iran inflicted on Israel?

 

[FUB]

As time goes by, even the Zionists can not deny the fact that they burned primary resources with no strategic significance gained. I recommend that some review the beginning of the Iraq War when Khuzestan was captured. We have yet to see the damage caused by the 200 missiles that were not intercepted. Supposedly, they all fell in open fields. If you think that there are no undeclared nuclear sites with cascades of centrifuges, then I have a bridge to sell for a good deal. In my opinion, Iran is a non-declared atomic weapons state.
"This very cycle of aggression, however, may be gifting the Islamic Republic strategic gains that far outweigh the material losses."

The Blogs: Why Israel’s Tactical Triumphs in the 12-Day War Mask a Deeper Strategic Gamble

From the blog of Julian Rennell at The Times of Israel

blogs.timesofisrael.com

 

[ToddE]

we all knew Israel can only set it back a few months. instead they managed to set it back years thanks to Trump

have you seen the satellite images of Natanz? Esfahan? utter devastation of so many critical parts of the nuclear value chain that cannot just be replaced in a few months, the enrichment facilities are the least of the problems (though they are both destroyed too)

If we go by the simpleton view that "entirety" of Iranian nuclear program was gathered in few of those rooms to take the US hit in those facilities then yes but world is not so simple otherwise AIPAC run US would not be negotiating with Iran again, nuclear spy arm "IAEA" would not be dying to return to Iran either. Nuclear program is not a tangible entity that can be destroyed by 2 bombs dropped in sand. The knowledge, the expertise, the tools, blueprints all is there in one of the worlds most technically educated nation with a large terrain to hide in. Here is the connected question that no one is even asking, where is that ~half a ton 60% HEU ? If Israel goal was to prevent Iran from using that HEU to make WGU and subsequent devices then its still inside Iran in hands of same leadership they claimed is going to use them to make bombs (netanyahu's words). What did Israel achieve here ?

Besides, what is the guarantee that all these years IRI just did not build a parallel more secretive micro facilities like other nuclear armed countries. The idea of such a system actually came from Israel itself if your read its own nuclear program. This is not just my view, few mainstream journalists hold the same opinion that IRI always knew this possibility so they may have shifted to the parallel micro-sites the first time they were threatened by US bombing. Different debate.

they wiped out Iran's chief of staff, two heads of the combined army HQ (the second one only one day after he was appointed), intelligence chiefs and deputies, head of IRGC-ASF, head of IRGC, head of air defence, .... did you expect more ?

You are naming their designations to make them sound some HUGE losses but were they? Most were crude ground soldiers from Iraq war era who IRI mullah leadership just politically trusted because they were ideologically aligned so they became "Chiefs" and "Heads" of this and that. Majority was way past retirement, most were idiots like motor mouth Salami and clueless Bagheri under whom the Iranian armed forced regressed the most. The scary nuclear "scientist" Davani was the same fool who once claimed Iran is a superpower on par with US. At best these old men were roadblocks and nothing else. Only actual loss felt at first was Hajizadeh but IRGCAF's strike after strike proved that even he was not some key player. We are living in AI age, individuals do not matter that much the way they did few years back.

Just for sake of argument even if we say they were HUGE losses, I will ask again, what did their killings bring to Israel? If the goal was to cripple IRGC then that did not happen so what did Israel achieve by taking out these clowns ?

they only didn't kill Khamenei because he went to hide in a deep tunnel and cut off all contact with the outside world except for 1-2 people. and besides why should they kill the most dovish guy in Iran anyway.

See this is the issue here, if Khamenei's survival is important for Israel and he is the absolute power in Iran then why even wage war at first place? Their most trusted ally is sitting on throne in Tehran right ? This is exactly my point that what did Israel wanted to achieve in this war because from broader perspective they achieved literally nothing.

Israel expected and prepared for many more missiles to be launched. instead they took 17 hours to even launch one missile (despite telling us for years they were fully prepared to respond instantly and had missiles prepped in silos and Israeli jets could not even land in airbases after attacking Iran) and were firing c. 10 missiles per 24 hours in the final days while Israel was dropping hundreds of bombs per day, and each one hit its target accurately compared to 10-20% of Iran's missiles impacting within 100-500m of the target

their answer was intercepting 80%+ of those missiles and inflicting 100x more damages on Iran. you think if Israel cannot escape war without even a few blows that means they lost, even as Iran suffers 100x as many blows? what kind of logic is this?


war always results in rallying around the flag. and that didn't stop their thousands of Iranian agents continue to launch hundreds of small drones in every city every day to disturb what remained of Iranian air defences


they killed entire IRGC-ASF C&C, head of chief of staff, vast majority of our leading nuclear scientists and hundreds of air defence and other soldiers

who did we kill in Israel that was important? 1 reserve IDF soldier and the rest civilians. so not sure what you are so happy about.

Deterrence was not established by Israel at all. Killing of generals, bombing civilians, using hundreds of hired agents (disgruntled Iranians) from within Iran to do internal terrorism disguised as "aerial attacks" nothing worked because IRGC kept firing back in the heart of the Israel, IRI leadership is still sitting on throne, nuclear program cant die, close to half a ton HEU is still inside Iran, Iranian nation rallied around Mullahs. It would have been an absolute victory for Israel if even half of their goals were achieved but they did not. You are seeing micro details of who killed how many random people on street but wars are won strategically when goals are achieved otherwise Nazis won the WWII because they killed the most people.

IRI is a dysfunctional system run by illiterate self appointed priests under decades of sanctions. Israel on the other hand is a power group that controls entire US and EU, PGCC. Both failed, Iranian case is understandable but why did Israel fail miserably in its goals?

 

[ToddE]

I disagree with this entirely.

Our nuclear infrastructure has been severely damaged. Sure, the Israelis had to ask the Americans to do that for them, but nevertheless, it was achieved.

Even if Iran somehow manages to enrich uranium up to 90%, and we end up with enough highly-enriched uranium for 10 bombs, it's still stored in UF6 gaseous state. We need to convert it to uranium metal, and the facility for that has been bombed already. So, even if we generously assume that Iran is still in possession of the HEU and a reliable enrichment method like our centrifuges or LIS at some undisclosed location, unless we have some covert uranium conversion facility, they have already achieved their goal of destroying Iran's latent nuclear capability.

Secondly, they murdered 12 nuclear scientists in Iran. They killed +30 IRGC and Artesh generals. It's very demoralizing. Imagine you're a nuclear scientist and you see that the regime you are working for cannot even defend its highest ranks from Israel. This will dishearten and discourage our forces inside Iran. And in return for that, how many high-ranking Israelis were killed? Zero!

Thirdly, people here assume that Israel has somehow stopped trying to topple the regime and disintegrate Iran. Their plan is on and they're still moving towards that even more than before. As I said, if you see this battle as one lone incident, then yes, you could say Israel failed to achieve their goals, but when you look at it as one battle in a war in greater scheme of things, and future regional plans, then Israel did achieve some success there as well. The fact that we had Baluch and Kurdish separatist attacks afterwards is an indication of what Israel has in mind. Also, the US is still working on some covert takeover of Iran and turn Iran into a tamed state, exactly like what people like Pezeshkian and Araghchi are doing now.

Israel failed to overthrow the regime because of their miscalculations about the Iranian people, not the Iranian regime. They were spot on about the regime's response to their pre-emptive attack. But Iranians did surprise them. They never thought that the Iranians would get so united against them after this. Again, their calculations about the regime and our armed forces were spot on, only Iranians ruined their plans.

Most of what you said I have answered in my answer to Persian Gulf. But here is a quick reply to some of the points you made.

- Leadership just does not have the will to make the devices regardless of any outside factor involved. If they wanted they could have done it in 90s when high speed C-Fibre centrifuges were designed (and patented) by Fakhrizadeh for HEU enrichment. We see no indication of quick progress from there, instead Khamenei's pup Ahmadinejad deliberately politicised the Iranian nuclear program. So discussing metallic WGU workshop means nothing here when the Guys who will fund this workshop from national treasury just do not want to do it at all. They want to use the nuclear program to bargain with outside powers to keep themselves in power out of pure personal greed mixed with ideological delusionalism.

- US has no reason to take over or unseat IRI. Any desirability in Iran means Russian, China and then smaller power groups like PGCC will be having a free hand in a critical region that serves as a global supply route. Russia is the biggest beneficiary of IRI in Iran since every self immolation move by IRI ultimately favours Russia. Void by Iranian departure from Trillion USD hydrocarbon market was filled by guess whom?

 

[kastor ville]

Does it really matter? At this point? Iran is still there, it's not atomized like Syria or Iraq. The nuclear knowledge is still there.....so yeah, we ran out of luck, due to the ineptitude of our leadership, too many kings and kingdoms inside IRI's government. The new Defense Council is a step in the right direction, but I digress, yes, 1000 dead, lot's of damage, but come on! We hit back, and we hit back hard.....let's concentrate on the cheese, not the holes in the cheese. They retreated.....they hit us, but they didn't have the moxy to finish the job. I think the real truth is somewhere in the middle, yes, Israel did some serious damage, but by doing it and not finishing it, they gave us a great gift.....even the dumb asses in Iran are now awake. This was a very important teachable moment for Iran. We hit them back, and this was the first time these bastards soiled their pants, since the 1970s...no one else, and I mean no one has ever done what we did to them, we showed the world these pricks are not invincible.....and they learned Iranians are not a soft target. We have every incentive to go full nuclear.....but we have to do it under the cover of darkness. I think the Iranian leadership knows that.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Fires, Explosions Hit Israeli Power Grid in Ramla​

Power failures and mysterious fires continue to plague the Israeli-occupied city of Ramla, raising serious questions about the regime’s crumbling infrastructure.​

Israeli media have once again reported a fire in a residential complex in the city of Ramla, allegedly caused by a high-voltage electrical fault. One person suffered severe burns and was transferred to a hospital.

According to some of regime’s experts, power outages and electrical fires in Ramla have sharply increased in recent weeks.

Despite repeated incidents, officials of the occupying regime have yet to identify the root cause of the failures.

In recent weeks, fires in electrical cabins, transformer explosions, industrial equipment blazes, and air conditioning unit malfunctions have led to the destruction of several residential buildings.

Some industrial centers were forced to shut down, and regional power distribution infrastructure sustained significant damage.

The escalating technical failures reflect growing disorder within the Zionist regime’s infrastructure — a system increasingly incapable of maintaining control over its occupied territories.

that is not something mysterious , i see a trans on the pole , they are notorious for explosion

 

[Hack-Hook]

Its a small shopping mall no?

no its a Restaurant

 

[Arash]

The next 3-5 weeks is extremely important for Iran.
By the end of August, we will know for sure where Iran is heading.

I believe the second round will start before October.
Probably in mid-September.

And the Ayatollahs are not ready for the second round.

September, October, November, etc... or even in next year... iranian govt should be 100% ready and prepared permanently

 

[Arash]

Another gas leak?

Sabotage as always.......... but the same happens in Israel also apparently.......

 

[Arash]

Iran should throw Lebanon under the bus and let them enter civil war for at least 100+ years and completely disarm them for 500+ years, this is not our problem, if Arabs wants to be slaves of Jews so hard we should let them do so, they will learn it the hard way

It's not throwing under the bus.... we let them decide their fate as do the Palestinians, Jordanians, syrians, Armenians, etc... if they enjoy slavery or decapitation, it's not our goddamn business .....

 

[Arash]

ok grandpa time to get to bed

Israelis are the best at psy, info and cognitive warfare, so we can doubt these news but not deny them 100%.........

 

[ShapurII]

Most of what you said I have answered in my answer to Persian Gulf. But here is a quick reply to some of the points you made.

- Leadership just does not have the will to make the devices regardless of any outside factor involved. If they wanted they could have done it in 90s when high speed C-Fibre centrifuges were designed (and patented) by Fakhrizadeh for HEU enrichment. We see no indication of quick progress from there, instead Khamenei's pup Ahmadinejad deliberately politicised the Iranian nuclear program. So discussing metallic WGU workshop means nothing here when the Guys who will fund this workshop from national treasury just do not want to do it at all. They want to use the nuclear program to bargain with outside powers to keep themselves in power out of pure personal greed mixed with ideological delusionalism.

- US has no reason to take over or unseat IRI. Any desirability in Iran means Russian, China and then smaller power groups like PGCC will be having a free hand in a critical region that serves as a global supply route. Russia is the biggest beneficiary of IRI in Iran since every self immolation move by IRI ultimately favours Russia. Void by Iranian departure from Trillion USD hydrocarbon market was filled by guess whom?

The problem with your analysis is that you're viewing the situation from the perspective of us Iranians; however, the Israelis think of Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, and the Americans view it as the worst thing that could happen for their interests in the region. They simply don't trust the Ayatollahs who have chanted "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" for decades nearly every week.

They probably fully know that the leadership of Iran is indecisive and even compromised, but there is no guarantee that things would remain the same forever. You can never count on the status quo to continue forever. And as so, they had to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and they did this to a great extent.

Also, no matter how incompetent and foolish the Iranian establishment is, the Americans and the Israelis know that it can always get worse for Iran. For example, they can disintegrate Iran into multiple states, encircle Iran with new hostile states, and keep the IR in power in whatever remains of Iran. So, even if the US doesn't want to unseat the IR, it doesn't mean that they are not interested in weakening Iran even further.

People who say "but the knowledge is still there", well, yes, that is true. But the knowledge alone is not going to make you a bomb. In fact, the knowledge of producing nuclear weapons is not as tightly restricted and confidential as it used to be decades ago. The US has even disclosed seminars and articles that were published during the Manhattan project, including their calculations. It's the technology of 80 years ago for God's sake. Having the knowledge is one thing, having the capability is another. And the US has destroyed our capability to produce a nuclear bomb (assuming there were no undisclosed sites with clandestine activities).

In short, if what we knew about Iran's nuclear program was all that there was to it, it's gone. Knowledge will stay, but without equipment, it's only good for theoretical work from now on.

 

[ShapurII]

Does it really matter? At this point? Iran is still there, it's not atomized like Syria or Iraq. The nuclear knowledge is still there.....so yeah, we ran out of luck, due to the ineptitude of our leadership, too many kings and kingdoms inside IRI's government. The new Defense Council is a step in the right direction, but I digress, yes, 1000 dead, lot's of damage, but come on! We hit back, and we hit back hard.....let's concentrate on the cheese, not the holes in the cheese. They retreated.....they hit us, but they didn't have the moxy to finish the job. I think the real truth is somewhere in the middle, yes, Israel did some serious damage, but by doing it and not finishing it, they gave us a great gift.....even the dumb asses in Iran are now awake. This was a very important teachable moment for Iran. We hit them back, and this was the first time these bastards soiled their pants, since the 1970s...no one else, and I mean no one has ever done what we did to them, we showed the world these pricks are not invincible.....and they learned Iranians are not a soft target. We have every incentive to go full nuclear.....but we have to do it under the cover of darkness. I think the Iranian leadership knows that.

The real question is this: Did we learn anything from it?
I really hoped we would do, but it seems that nothing has changed.

People are still saying the same sort of nonsense in the highest ranks of the regime.
A few days after the war, you heard a lot of new voices, a lot of new ideas. One month after the war, it's all back to how it was before the war. So, it seems that we have learned nothing and they will finish the job with a few more attempts.

We still have 3 more years of Trump, and if he becomes successful and restores "the greatness" of America, there's a high chance that the next US president would be more of the same. Let's not forget that the attacks on Iran were viewed quite positively by the MAGA people in the US after they realized that not even a single American died and Iran didn't play to retaliate. It boosted the US reputation as the world's strongest country and that's all that these MAGA idiots want.

 

[kastor ville]

The real question is this: Did we learn anything from it?
I really hoped we would do, but it seems that nothing has changed.

People are still saying the same sort of nonsense in the highest ranks of the regime.
A few days after the war, you heard a lot of new voices, a lot of new ideas. One month after the war, it's all back to how it was before the war. So, it seems that we have learned nothing and they will finish the job with a few more attempts.

We still have 3 more years of Trump, and if he becomes successful and restores "the greatness" of America, there's a high chance that the next US president would be more of the same. Let's not forget that the attacks on Iran were viewed quite positively by the MAGA people in the US after they realized that not even a single American died and Iran didn't play to retaliate. It boosted the US reputation as the world's strongest country and that's all that these MAGA idiots want.

All good points....but we all know fighting the US is a fool's errand. We have to avoid that. Again at this point I don't think it matters....the nuclear facilities will have to be
rebooted in a smaller capacity.
The uranium needs to recovered and moved to a military location. Fuxk the IAEA, and anything to do with international organs. We now know they're fully compromised.
Second, a smaller enrichment facility needs to be built...with advanced centrifuges.
Third, enrich to 90% and go all out. If news leaks out, we can blame it on the Israeli aggression, and being attacked during the negotiations.. we can use the line: Iran has a right to defend itself... beautifully ironic.
Third, test the device underground...they will know it's not an earthquake but let IRIB say it was...deny..deny..deny. they will know but the seeds of doubt will keep the world guessing.
After that detonation, they need to have a delivery system to be taken seriously....they need to develop one on a separate track.
The Rubicon has been crossed. It was crossed by Israel and Trump. Let's roll this scenario up and hang it around their neck. Everything that they didn't want to happen, they made happen.