Guys I'd like to jump in. Pardon me, I'm new here.
I've been following this thread from the outset of the conflict. I have friends and relatives in Iran, so it is a matter of importance to me.
Firstly, this whole back and forth of "we won the war, Israel begged for cease fire" vs "we are losing badly, they hurt us badly and we didn't do enough to stop them" is devolving into pessimistic ranting vs naivety.
I had wished Iranian leaders had responded with greater force, but that is then and this is now.
They know a second round is imminent.
We need to be discussing how to prepare.
The reality is bitter. No matter how much damage Israelis are hiding, they are preparing to attack again. This means you have not established deterence. It's that simple! All of us can boast about the missile strikes on Tel Aviv, Bazan oil refinery, Weizman Institute, all day. It still doesn't erase the fact they are going to attack again! Where is the deterence?
The large missile bases in Esfahan were hit. None of us know if the bases are a total loss, nor how many missiles / TELs were destroyed.
It is not completely bleak:
-A large number of Mossad insiders have been caught
-The population is currently rallied around the government. Please IR, do not take Iranians for granted and spoil this unity
-IRGCAF learned alot about Israeli air defence patterns; how their interceptors are deployed, timing of their responses, how they will respond
-I have not seen any photos or videos of major IRIAF losses, which means at least the F14s and Mig 29s are still operational
-The navy seems to be untouched
What we need to realize:
-Both the Americans and the Israelis know the limits of their interceptor stockpiles, and are likely actively working on ways to use them more effectively i.e strategizing how to improve interceptions with less missiles
-MAGA is in civil war; half of Trump's base are angry with him for getting involved in what could lead to a major bloody war. If Iranian retaliation is weak, and talk of "Iran is a paper tiger" goes around, those in his base resisting calls to war are going to look stupid and weak. They may end up changing their mind and siding with Trump, thinking that Iran is weak
How does Iran prepare:
-I know I will get flack for this, but at this point, I think Iran needs to send the Migs to Russia for upgrade to SMT status. There is no time to play around with IRIAFs science fair projects. The ground control stations need to be repaired and better protected as well. Even if only a dozen jets can provide defence to critical sites, shooting down drones and cruise missiles
-We have to assume there are zero SU 35s. Even if there were, it takes years to develop the skills. It's a new airframe
-I have my doubts Iran will get J10s from China, but air defence seems more likely. If not, at least get the Chinese to replace equipment lost when Israel targetted missile plants and SAIRAN
-Can systems like Mesbah 2 be of any use defending sites from cruise missiles? Guarding TELs? Seems low cost and able to be mass produced
-Need to put together plans for hitting more critical sites around Israel. I think escalation is the only way at this point, otherwise Israel will continue attacking and sabotaging with impunity
Lastly:
-I know I will take huge flack for this, but I think Iran should give up enrichment capability. Propose a 3 year moratorium on enrichment. After 3 years, reconvene and discuss the possibility of creating an international consortium that would allow to enrich uranium on a limited basis. It is way too late to dash for the bomb now. IR wasted a decade, when there was a chance to go for it, but didn't.
-There needs to be some economic reprieve to alleviate hardships on ordinary Iranians, and add some funds so that the country can rebuild. I have read reports that thousands of Iranians submitted information to police, leading to the discovery of Mossad agents and operating sites in the country. IR needs to preserve this goodwill and keep the country united and hopefull, because what comes next is going to be very difficult. I don't discount that Israel may even target water facilities, exploiting the drought crisis.
-I trust the skills of Iranian engineers and scientists. There needs to be a future weapon that can supercede the need for nuclear weapons. Think sci fi, think outside the box. You can't rely on nukes. That era is going to go away.
Anyway, again, just my two cents.
I wanted to get the conversation going in a different direction.
Please, let me hear your ideas.
What equipment can you rely on? What can you produce?
