Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

They admit that due to the delay in activating SNAPBACK and the window they waited to try to do it, why didn't they activate it 3 months ago? 6 months ago? 3 years ago? I'll explain

No, please don't. Because your entire analysis is nonsense.
They didn't activate it 3 years ago because they wanted to keep Iran in check and use it as a leverage against Iran until the very last moment. That's what any rational player would do.

The reason that they activated it today is because Russia will become the Head of the UNSC in October. So, they want the whole thing to end before that. That's why they activated it today. Otherwise, they would've activated it next month to keep their leverage on Iran.

 

[Persian Gulf]

JINSA (quite a reputable Jewish military group) estimates that Iran missile stockpile fell from 2,500 pre-conflict to 1,000-1,500 post-war, and the number of launchers fell from 350 to 100.

Most launchers and missiles were stored in large SSM bases which were not used. So these numbers seem pure fiction. The IDF only showed evidence of hitting around 50 missile launchers (it used a lot of duplicate videos with different filters and angles to fool people).

Israel claims it intercepted 85% of missiles and Iran launched a total of 570-600 missiles.

But Israel also admits that "thousands" of homes were destroyed or damaged. So around 80-90 missiles impacted in Israel and these destroyed thousands of homes?

 

[ShapurII]

JINSA (quite a reputable Jewish military group) estimates that Iran missile stockpile fell from 2,500 pre-conflict to 1,000-1,500 post-war, and the number of launchers fell from 350 to 100.

Most launchers and missiles were stored in large SSM bases which were not used. So these numbers seem pure fiction. The IDF only showed evidence of hitting around 50 missile launchers (it used a lot of duplicate videos with different filters and angles to fool people).

Israel claims it intercepted 85% of missiles and Iran launched a total of 570-600 missiles.

But Israel also admits that "thousands" of homes were destroyed or damaged. So around 80-90 missiles impacted in Israel and these destroyed thousands of homes?

Rule #1 of war: Do NOT trust anything that your enemy says.

If they say you're strong, it's because they want to make themselves look stronger by hyping you up. If they say you're weak, it's because they want to demoralize you. Nothing that is said by our enemies matter.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Rule #1 of war: Do NOT trust anything that your enemy says.

If they say you're strong, it's because they want to make themselves look stronger by hyping you up. If they say you're weak, it's because they want to demoralize you. Nothing that is said by our enemies matter.

can be useful to analyse their claims as a benchmark since Iran doesn't give any information

for example, they claim they destroyed up to 1,000 MRBMs in Iran. they also claim they launched around 1,200 airstrikes. so almost every airstrike destroyed 1 missile? none of the missile bases were actually penetrated and destroyed, so we can exclude the possibility that they destroyed hundreds of missiles at once.

 

[ShapurII]

can be useful to analyse their claims as a benchmark since Iran doesn't give any information

for example, they claim they destroyed up to 1,000 MRBMs in Iran. they also claim they launched around 1,200 airstrikes. so almost every airstrike destroyed 1 missile? none of the missile bases were actually penetrated and destroyed, so we can exclude the possibility that they destroyed hundreds of missiles at once.

I hope that we have more than 3,000 MRBMs left.

If we trust American sources, Gen. McKenzie believed Iran had more than 3,000 missiles in 2022. Of course, missiles do not have to be MRBMs, but I believe CENTCOM was referring to our MRBMs only, as it's the only credible threat that the Americans worry about.

If that's true, and we consider a production rate of 30 missiles per month, then our stockpile would've been 4,000-5,000 missiles before the war. We fired 600 missiles. So, we must still have some 3,500 missiles left.

I highly doubt that Israel has destroyed more than 30 launchers. So, their entire analysis seems very biased to me.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I hope that we have more than 3,000 MRBMs left.

If we trust American sources, Gen. McKenzie believed Iran had more than 3,000 missiles in 2022. Of course, missiles do not have to be MRBMs, but I believe CENTCOM was referring to our MRBMs only, as it's the only credible threat that the Americans worry about.

If that's true, and we consider a production rate of 30 missiles per month, then our stockpile would've been 4,000-5,000 missiles before the war. We fired 600 missiles. So, we must still have some 3,500 missiles left.

I highly doubt that Israel has destroyed more than 30 launchers. So, their entire analysis seems very biased to me.

actually that 3,000 number was for all of Iran's missiles. which makes sense since US bases in the region are within range of even the SRBMs.

 

[Immortals]

JINSA (quite a reputable Jewish military group) estimates that Iran missile stockpile fell from 2,500 pre-conflict to 1,000-1,500 post-war, and the number of launchers fell from 350 to 100.

Most launchers and missiles were stored in large SSM bases which were not used. So these numbers seem pure fiction. The IDF only showed evidence of hitting around 50 missile launchers (it used a lot of duplicate videos with different filters and angles to fool people).

Israel claims it intercepted 85% of missiles and Iran launched a total of 570-600 missiles.

But Israel also admits that "thousands" of homes were destroyed or damaged. So around 80-90 missiles impacted in Israel and these destroyed thousands of homes?

It appears even the silos themselves were hit. I saw sat images on X that the silo doors had been hit with pinpoint precision.

That explains why the mountain airbases could not fire from inside them, even the ones that were pre fueled (or solid) and ready and on standby at all times. It explains why the initial response took so long.

 

[Immortals]

I hope that we have more than 3,000 MRBMs left.

If we trust American sources, Gen. McKenzie believed Iran had more than 3,000 missiles in 2022. Of course, missiles do not have to be MRBMs, but I believe CENTCOM was referring to our MRBMs only, as it's the only credible threat that the Americans worry about.

If that's true, and we consider a production rate of 30 missiles per month, then our stockpile would've been 4,000-5,000 missiles before the war. We fired 600 missiles. So, we must still have some 3,500 missiles left.

I highly doubt that Israel has destroyed more than 30 launchers. So, their entire analysis seems very biased to me.

Where are the fanboys that said iran had 50,000? 100,000? Even Patarames seemed to allude to Iran being able to build thousands of Ghadr variant missiles.

I remember when I said less than 5,000 MRBM on here I was berated and attacked. I guess we all got duped by the propaganda to some extent. Some more than others.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It appears even the silos themselves were hit. I saw sat images on X that the silo doors had been hit with pinpoint precision.

That explains why the mountain airbases could not fire from inside them, even the ones that were pre fueled (or solid) and ready and on standby at all times. It explains why the initial response took so long.

I saw that image, nothing was hit there, just the covers were removed

they hit and collapsed the entrances, trapping (and sometimes killing) the crew inside, they didn't surgically hit every silo

 

[Immortals]

I saw that image, nothing was hit there, just the covers were removed

Why would automatic covers be just dangling like that?



Either they were damaged and Iranian personnel removed them manually to get launches off or the base had no power and once again they were removed.

Either way burying your missiles under mountains might protect the missiles, but using them becomes very difficult.

If anything missile bases should be move to the east to force the enemy to fly over Iranian territory. Concentrating them all in the west close to the border was not a smart strategy when they couldn’t secure the airspace around the sights from BMs, CMs, and PGMs.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Why would automatic covers be just dangling like that?



Either they were damaged and Iranian personnel removed them manually to get launches off or the base had no power and once again they were removed.

Either way burying your missiles under mountains might protect the missiles, but using them becomes very difficult.

If anything missile bases should be move to the east to force the enemy to fly over Iranian territory. Concentrating them all in the west close to the border was not a smart strategy when they couldn’t secure the airspace around the sights from BMs, CMs, and PGMs.

the guy who first found the image said there is not much sign of damage from the image



other than the covers moving, there is no damage visible in the images. not consistent with an airstrike at all. and there is no other image of damage to silos (not indicated in any satellite images I've seen).

you are right about the burying missile problem. more silos, more entrances, excavators stored within the bases are some solutions (on at least one occasion Israel used a drone strike against an excavator trying to restore access to an entrance from the outside... a painful sight).

east Iran is 2000-2300km from Israel. most of IRGC-ASF's missiles don't have that range (1400-1800km range is bulk of the missiles). they can probably extend the range if they modify the warhead but this will make the missiles less reliable and even less accurate

 

[hyperman]

can anyone confirm?

 

[Persian Gulf]

can anyone confirm?

nuclear file is in the hands of the SNSC not parliament, so this is not that relevant even if it's true, other than to put pressure on SNSC

 

[ShapurII]

Where are the fanboys that said iran had 50,000? 100,000? Even Patarames seemed to allude to Iran being able to build thousands of Ghadr variant missiles.

I remember when I said less than 5,000 MRBM on here I was berated and attacked. I guess we all got duped by the propaganda to some extent. Some more than others.

We have made nearly zero progress in semiconductors and metallurgy since early 2010s, it seems.

I think we might have over 10,000 missiles if we include SRBMs and AshBMs as well, but maybe that's just wishful thinking.

50,000-100,000 is just delusional. We all fell for the propaganda as you correctly pointed out. Some of us more, some of us less.

 

[Persian Gulf]

someone went through all the footage released by Israel of strikes against missile launchers

they assessed footage of 45 missile launchers being attacked (including 12 instances of duplicate footage being used by Israel). they say 9 were decoys/empty and 4 were only damaged. meaning only 24-33 active TELs were destroyed or damaged.

We know from footage of Iran's SSM bases that the IRGC-ASF likely has > 100 TELs in each base. So this is really an insignificant number apparently inflated by visual tricks for propaganda purposes. Not to mention that missile TELs are based on commercial trucks with upgraded hydraulics. They are not a bottleneck or hard to produce in any conceivable way.

the main unknown is whether Israel destroyed many more than they released footage for. but given they were releasing these videos so frequently and even went to such lengths to slightly distort videos to release them twice to inflate the perception of how many launchers were being hit, and also released footage hitting empty/decoy TELs, I would tend to believe they released footage of most if not all of the launchers they actually hit.

@ShapurII