Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

Do you think they can build it?

Everyone is watching now and Israel is already gearing for round 2.

Most likely not. That window of opportunity seems closed.

It seems that our 440 kg of HEU is buried under debris somewhere in Fordow or Natanz.
Even if we do recover that, we do not have uranium conversion facilities anymore. We need to convert UF6 gas into uranium metal.
We do not have plutonium reprocessing facilities to use the burnup at Bushehr either.

We may be able to build the bomb in 3-6 months, but not before that. The only exception is that if they already started working towards this after Israel bombed Iran, but we all know they're not that smart. I hope I'm wrong though.

I think the easiest way is to ask North Korea to give us the fissile material. If we have the fissile material, assembling a basic implosion device shouldn't be that out of reach for Iran. At the worst case scenario, we can build gun-type bombs. Even Al-Qaeda and the Taliban can do that with enough fissile material.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think the easiest way is to ask North Korea to give us the fissile material. If we have the fissile material, assembling a basic implosion device shouldn't be that out of reach for Iran. At the worst case scenario, we can build gun-type bombs. Even Al-Qaeda and the Taliban can do that with enough fissile material.

I agree with the rest but not this

the West monitors Iran importing ammonium from China for missile fuel, they will track this for sure and attack it

 

[ShapurII]

I agree with the rest but not this

the West monitors Iran importing ammonium from China for missile fuel, they will track this for sure and attack it

The critical mass of Pu-239 is 10 kg, at normal density. That means that if you do not compress plutonium and want to use the most inefficient design (gun-type), 10 kg is enough for one bomb.

Now if you can compress it in an implosion device, a 2 times compression would give you 4 nukes. The critical mass is inversely proportional to the square of density. More compression, significantly less fissile material needed to reach the critical mass.

You can put it in a well-shielded casing of lead and carry it on an airplane. Just split it into several suitcase-sized packages below the critical mass. Even on a civilian flight. It's not that difficult.

 

[Bharatah]

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NOTE: If Iran leaves the NPT, it is because it already has several atomic bombs.

NOTE 2: Security must be tightened as a terrorist attack could be carried out in the Iranian parliament during the vote.

 

[Shafagh]

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NOTE: If Iran leaves the NPT, it is because it already has several atomic bombs.

NOTE 2: Security must be tightened as a terrorist attack could be carried out in the Iranian parliament during the vote.

I'm telling you guys, having nuclear bomb is not going to change much.

Iran will be stuck in time, living through the 2020s over and over. The only difference is no regime change, but do you guys really want to live like North Korea? The regime already shows it is incompetent.

 

[Shafagh]

The critical mass of Pu-239 is 10 kg, at normal density. That means that if you do not compress plutonium and want to use the most inefficient design (gun-type), 10 kg is enough for one bomb.

Now if you can compress it in an implosion device, a 2 times compression would give you 4 nukes. The critical mass is inversely proportional to the square of density. More compression, significantly less fissile material needed to reach the critical mass.

You can put it in a well-shielded casing of lead and carry it on an airplane. Just split it into several suitcase-sized packages below the critical mass. Even on a civilian flight. It's not that difficult.

So if they go this way, how soon can they get a bomb and what guarantee you won't get nuked after testing the first one?

 

[fitpOsitive]

Dear Pakistan, your danger time will start from mid November to end December this year. Make sure that if your assets on surface are destroyed and your underground assets are also taken down, you should possess enough power to wipeout one or two countries anywhere within Asia. That's probably last time I am writing this..

 

[ShapurII]

So if they go this way, how soon can they get a bomb and what guarantee you won't get nuked after testing the first one?

You don't test the bomb when you have only one nuke.
You do it when you have at least 5-10 devices built and ready.

I'll summarize some facts for you:
1) 1 kg of U-235 can theoretically achieve ~17 kilotons.
2) 1 kg of Pu-239 can theoretically achieve ~20 kilotons.

Of course, no device will get close to its theoretical yield. Little boy, for example, used about 60 kilograms of U-235 enriched to an average of 80% and it released only 16 kilotons of energy. It was a gun-type bomb. So, that's only ~1.5% of its theoretical limit and it's still a pretty good yield for a nuke of its generation.

If Iran gets 50 kilograms of Pu-239 from Comrade Kim, even with unclassified documents about nuclear design, we should be able to produce 10-15 nuclear devices with reasonable compression, tampering and neutron reflectors. If we have heavy water (deuterium + tritium), we can go for a boosted fission device which is more powerful. Anyway, these will be low-yield devices, most likely below 30-40 kilotons, but that's enough for literal destruction of Israel.

The first test is important because its yield will probably give our enemies some idea of our nuclear capabilities.

What guarantee is there that they won't nuke us after the first test?
It's called MAD. If they see that Iran's first test shows efficiency, they will realize that Iran has achieved the capability to wipe Israel off the map. In that case, any nuclear attack on Iran will lead to the complete obliteration of the Jewish state.
Israel is 90 times smaller than Iran. It has no strategic depth. It's a flat land. It will never risk its life by nuking a state that is 90 times larger and has mountainous terrain.

In the case that our nuclear test fizzles and goes wrong, Iran will be in a tough situation. However, if we have enough bombs built already, even a fair amount of ambiguity will keep our enemies in check.

 

[Shafagh]

However, if we have enough bombs built already, even a fair amount of ambiguity will keep our enemies in check.

This is what I am concerned about, lack of preparation by senior leadership.

They may not be thinking methodically and logically as you or I. I really hope they have learned from prior mistakes.

 

[ShapurII]

This is what I am concerned about, lack of preparation by senior leadership.

They may not be thinking methodically and logically as you or I. I really hope they have learned from prior mistakes.

I'm sure they will have excellent council if they really want to listen to others.
The problem is not science or technology in Iran's case. It's terrible leadership.

 

[Shafagh]

I'm sure they will have excellent council if they really want to listen to others.
The problem is not science or technology in Iran's case. It's terrible leadership.

The stakes are much higher now. One misstep could cause catastrophe for Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

The stakes are much higher now. One misstep could cause catastrophe for Iran.

We're heading towards that direction anyway.
I don't know about the rulers of Iran, but if I knew my end was coming, I would not just sit and wait for the inevitable. I would rather try to do something.

The way I see it is that Iran has only two options: Surrender to the US and Israel, change course 180 degrees and be part of their world order. And the other option is nuclear deterrence.

Nuclear deterrence would at least guarantee the existence of Iran. At the very least, it would guarantee Iran's territorial integrity against our opportunist neighbors, if not Israel or the US.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The critical mass of Pu-239 is 10 kg, at normal density. That means that if you do not compress plutonium and want to use the most inefficient design (gun-type), 10 kg is enough for one bomb.

Now if you can compress it in an implosion device, a 2 times compression would give you 4 nukes. The critical mass is inversely proportional to the square of density. More compression, significantly less fissile material needed to reach the critical mass.

You can put it in a well-shielded casing of lead and carry it on an airplane. Just split it into several suitcase-sized packages below the critical mass. Even on a civilian flight. It's not that difficult.

Iran has not shown an ability to hide anything

imagine it is caught, the risks would be too high for NK to be worth it

 

[ShapurII]

Iran has not shown an ability to hide anything

imagine it is caught, the risks would be too high for NK to be worth it

NK doesn't give a f*ck.
I know Medvedev is a drunk fool, but even he hinted at it.
When he said that there were some friendly countries that might arm Iran with nukes, he most likely was referring to Comrade Kim.

It can be hidden. Whether the Ayatollah regime is that incompetent or not, well, I really hope they're not but I'm probably overestimating them.

Whatever happens, I just hope this nightmare would end soon. Even if it's going to be a catastrophe for Iran, it's better that it happens soon. Iranian people are being tortured for the stupidity of our leaders.

 

[Persian Gulf]

NK doesn't give a f*ck.
I know Medvedev is a drunk fool, but even he hinted at it.
When he said that there were some friendly countries that might arm Iran with nukes, he most likely was referring to Comrade Kim.

It can be hidden. Whether the Ayatollah regime is that incompetent or not, well, I really hope they're not but I'm probably overestimating them.

Whatever happens, I just hope this nightmare would end soon. Even if it's going to be a catastrophe for Iran, it's better that it happens soon. Iranian people are being tortured for the stupidity of our leaders.

there is not much incentive for NK to do that. it is not suicidal

Western satellites monitor movement at all NK and Iranian nuclear sites and key ports etc, even beyond infiltration of key individuals in the value chain and intercepting comms