Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[Eşbah]

I watched it. Turkey has numerical superiority at sea,but Israel has qualitative superiority and balances it. Their Airforce could also assist.

It's not just the F-35,it's the F-15 as well. If there was a war tomorrow,the Turkish Airforce and Navy would be at a disadvantage. However,if USA stopped providing them with ammunition and spare parts,they wouldn't be able to fight a war against Turkey like they have been fighting in Gaza.

I doubt that most Western experts would agree with your assessment.

Türkiye has Cyprus, Syria, Libya, and Somalia to confront Israel from various fronts. Unlike the Iranians, we possess a robust industrial base that can withstand Israeli assaults. In essence, any conflict with Türkiye would deplete Israel's resources and abilities. Time would work in favor of Türkiye. THIS is why the US would never permit such a confrontation to occur in the first place. They would step in because they couldn't justify the costs to the American public, and by "cost," I also refer to the loss of American lives for the survival of a racist Jewish regime if they involve themselves which they wouldn't do, never.

What causes people to either overestimate or underestimate Israel? There seems to be a lack of balanced analysis. Yeah, Israel holds significant sway in Washington, but the wrath of the majority of the American public carries more weight for ANY politician in Washington. A war where the US assists Israel against Türkiye in a away that would force our hand to attack US assets in the Middle East or Eastern Europe (!) or support Russia in Ukraine is an outlandish prediction.

 

[Foinikas]

on what? certainly not surface ships, nor Unmanned vehicles.

And I would say the Dolphin Class and the 214s Turkey is inducting are certainly comparable.

Their corvettes are like heavy frigates. They have very few,yes:



Now check this out:





They also have missile boats




Their submarines are good too



Like you said they are comparable to the Reis class. I guess. I'm not an expert on submarines.

Now here's the thing,their advantage is that they have a very small coastline to defend and their Airforce will probably try to make sure part of the Turkish Fleet would not manage to reach close to their beaches or Gaza.

 

[Foinikas]

Türkiye has Cyprus, Syria, Libya, and Somalia to confront Israel from various fronts.

Yes,but how useful would it be for Turkey to launch an attack from Somalia or an operation from Libya? The problem is,from Libya,it's farther away and there's Egypt between you. The problem with Somalia is even farther away and Saudis,Jordanians and Egyptians could inform them. Syria,the moment they see big army movements closing in,they will start bombing. Even if you start sending forces little by little,under the pretext of helping the Syrian government or sending them there to train them or for common exercises or whatever,they would at some point give an ultimatum and then start bombing while the Turkish forces in Syria are still relatively small in number.

Northern Cyprus,now that's a more logical solution.

Unlike the Iranians, we possess a robust industrial base that can withstand Israeli assaults.

Yes,but personally I think you're not able to withstand a massive Israeli Airforce attack yet. I'm not talking about 2030 or 2035 when the majority of your military projects will be finished and a lot of your new equipment will be in active service and mass production.

I think right now,Turkey is still very vulnerable to an IAF raid.

In essence, any conflict with Türkiye would deplete Israel's resources and abilities. Time would work in favor of Türkiye.

If they got no ammunition and spare parts support from the US and/or other Western countries,they would lose the war if Turkey managed to keep them occupied for more than a month of intense war. That's why they're tactic should be to try and take out the majority of the Turkish Navy and several important military installations and defence industry complexes and centres.

They would step in because they couldn't justify the costs to the American public, and by "cost," I also refer to the loss of American lives for the survival of a racist Jewish regime if they involve themselves which they wouldn't do, never.

Unfortunately,that hasn't prevented the American governments to stop spending money to help them since the Yom Kippur War.

A war where the US assists Israel against Türkiye in a away that would force our hand to attack US assets in the Middle East or Eastern Europe (!) or support Russia in Ukraine is an outlandish prediction.

But that would bring Turkey and Erdogan in open war with USA and its closest allies(Britain for example).

 

[hyperman]

Their corvettes are like heavy frigates. They have very few,yes:

View attachment 145134

Now check this out:

View attachment 145132

View attachment 145135

They also have missile boats

View attachment 145137
View attachment 145139

Their submarines are good too

View attachment 145140

Like you said they are comparable to the Reis class. I guess. I'm not an expert on submarines.

Now here's the thing,their advantage is that they have a very small coastline to defend and their Airforce will probably try to make sure part of the Turkish Fleet would not manage to reach close to their beaches or Gaza.

Small little corvettes cannot be compared to Frigates and air defense destroyers. They are a littoral navy.

The Israel have no capacity for Amphibious assault in any significant way, not area control.

Since you like reading wikipedia so much, why don't you read the Turkish navy wiki too.

List of active ships of the Turkish Naval Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Israeli Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

@MMM-E can maybe give you a more detailed comparison.

 

[Foinikas]

Small little corvettes cannot be compared to Frigates and air defense destroyers. They are a littoral navy.

The Israel have no capacity for Amphibious assault in any significant way, not area control.

Since you like reading wikipedia so much, why don't you read the Turkish navy wiki too.

List of active ships of the Turkish Naval Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Israeli Navy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

@MMM-E can maybe give you a more detailed comparison.

I've looked at the Turkish Navy equipment page on wikipedia numerous times. That's why I'm telling you.

You made a small mistake,you said small little corvettes cannot be compared to frigates and destroyers. I guess you didn't check the screenshot of what each Sa'ar 6 carries. Remember that right now, Turkey doesn't have any destroyer. You don't have the TF-2000 and you only have one ISTIF frigate.

The Israeli ships also have very good electronics and sensors.

They don't need amphibious assault ships,they are only there to protect their area. The Airforce will do the rest. Again that's all theoretical

 

[MMM-E]

You made a small mistake,you said small little corvettes cannot be compared to frigates and destroyers. I guess you didn't check the screenshot of what each Sa'ar 6 carries. Remember that right now, Turkey doesn't have any destroyer. You don't have the TF-2000 and you only have one ISTIF frigate.

I will not talk about future weapons but current capability of the Turkish Armed Forces


Turkish Navy has 17 Frigates armed with 586 SAMs which are more than Greek+French Navies combined

and ESSM SAM can intercept even supersonic anti-ship Missiles

Turkish Frigates can protect themselves against anti-ship Missiles

also 4 ADA class Corvettes are very modern Systems



4 SAAR-6 Corvettes are not threat ... not even close
...... Israeli SAAR-6 Corvettes air defense missiles would run out within hours in a war with the Turkish Armed Forces .....

how to stop 1.000+ HARPOON , SLAM-ER , HARM , ATMACA , SOM Missiles ?


Land based ATMACA anti-ship Missiles will be used to sink 4 SAAR-6 Corvettes after massive swarm attack by Turkish UCAVs and unmanned combat Vessels


Turkiye is noy buying but Turkiye is producing Missiles

300 Turkish UCAVs armed with over 2.000 cost effective missiles/guided munitions which are more than Greek+Egyptian+French+Israeli Navies SAM fire power combined


10 Turkish MARLIN unmanned combat Vessels can fire 200 KUZGUN Missiles for swarm attack ... They also armed with CAKIR anti-ship Missiles



Also Do you know what about unmanned kamikaze vessels to carry 200 kg of warhead ?

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Turkiye has developed many types of unmanned combat and kamikaze Vessels

Game changer variant which can able to maneuver underwater
armed with 1.000 kg thermobaric warhead


Türkiye is now on the verge of achieving the same tremendous success at sea , it achieved with UCAVs in the air

Israeli Navy is not a power with a few Corvettes
Israelis very well know about it

 

[Foinikas]

Turkish Navy has 17 Frigates armed with 586 SAMs which are more than Greek+French Navies combined

and ESSM SAM can intercept even supersonic anti-ship Missiles

Turkish Frigates can protect itself against anti-ship Missiles

also 4 ADA class Corvettes are very modern Systems

Look,forget about the 586 SAMS more than
Greece+French+Bulgaria+Romania+Czechoslovakia Navy stuff.

I'm talking about if a war started tomorrow....or next week,you can't use shit like "Turkiye is noy buying but Turkiye is producing Missiles" or Turkiye will fire 200 Kuzgun,Ozgur,Cakir, Karakalpak,Karahisar missiles and all. It doesn't matter if you make your weapons. We're talking about a relatively short war.

If Israel gets full support from USA in money,ammunition,spare parts,weapons,you'd be at a loss. If USA doesn't support them,you could take them out in a few months.
The Israelis would try to keep the war short by launching raids and fast attacks. They would try to hit fast and hard at vital installations in Turkey.

I'm telling you realistically,right now,the Israelis have a pretty good Navy defensively. Because both the Sa'ar 6 corvettes and the Sa'ar 5 are armed to the teeth and they only have a relatively small area to defend. It's not like Greece or Turkey,you know what I mean. So imagine those corvettes,missile boats and submarines protecting that zone from the the Israeli coastline and Gaza up to their EEZ. They would have the support of the IAF and part of the army aviation.

Add to that their Patrol Boats,of which the Super Dvora MkIII have SPIKE NLOS on.






With the current Turkish Navy and Air Force,it won't be easy at all.

 

[Anatolia]

I'm talking about if a war started tomorrow....or next week,you can't use shit like "Turkiye is noy buying but Turkiye is producing Missiles" or Turkiye will fire 200 Kuzgun,Ozgur,Cakir, Karakalpak,Karahisar missiles and all. It doesn't matter if you make your weapons. We're talking about a relatively short war.

If Israel gets full support from USA in money,ammunition,spare parts,weapons,you'd be at a loss. If USA doesn't support them,you could take them out in a few months.
The Israelis would try to keep the war short by launching raids and fast attacks. They would try to hit fast and hard at vital installations in Turkey.

In that scenario yes. You're talking about full support by Americans to Israel if war started tomorrow. might cause some problems. But land invasion would not happen.
Also, for that scenario to work, Israel have a VERY SMALL window. we're legit on our way to fix our engine problems with jets, 5-10 years is not too soon or long. but I like our chances we can get to that stage unscathed.
So, Israel have to do that right now, before we get our airforce fully native built. yes?

 

[hyperman]

Look,forget about the 586 SAMS more than
Greece+French+Bulgaria+Romania+Czechoslovakia Navy stuff.

I'm talking about if a war started tomorrow....or next week,you can't use shit like "Turkiye is noy buying but Turkiye is producing Missiles" or Turkiye will fire 200 Kuzgun,Ozgur,Cakir, Karakalpak,Karahisar missiles and all. It doesn't matter if you make your weapons. We're talking about a relatively short war.

If Israel gets full support from USA in money,ammunition,spare parts,weapons,you'd be at a loss. If USA doesn't support them,you could take them out in a few months.
The Israelis would try to keep the war short by launching raids and fast attacks. They would try to hit fast and hard at vital installations in Turkey.

I'm telling you realistically,right now,the Israelis have a pretty good Navy defensively. Because both the Sa'ar 6 corvettes and the Sa'ar 5 are armed to the teeth and they only have a relatively small area to defend. It's not like Greece or Turkey,you know what I mean. So imagine those corvettes,missile boats and submarines protecting that zone from the the Israeli coastline and Gaza up to their EEZ. They would have the support of the IAF and part of the army aviation.

Add to that their Patrol Boats,of which the Super Dvora MkIII have SPIKE NLOS on.



View attachment 145193View attachment 145192


With the current Turkish Navy and Air Force,it won't be easy at all.

When you define wars, you need to define goals of wars, they aren't abstract things. b/c depending on the goal, it tells you what a win is or a loss is. If you don't have that defined, then the whole idea of war is moot.

On paper in terms of systems and platforms, its without question Turkey has more in terms of ships and in terms of being able to operate in deep ocean environments, the corvettes and missile boats make a littoral navy, nothing more.

 

[Foinikas]

On paper in terms of systems and platforms, its without question Turkey has more in terms of ships and in terms of being able to operate in deep ocean environments, the corvettes and missile boats make a littoral navy, nothing more.

Yes on paper. Could it defeat the Israelis right now? I don't think so. Because they would be protecting their area and also get support from their Air Force.

Ground forces? That's different. Turkey has a river of soldiers if they decided to invade the Israelis from the north. Not to mention the hundreds of thousands that would volunteer for such a war. Devout Muslims and proxies from Syria,Libya and the Caucasus would rush to join. Heck,who knows maybe even Pakistan. But the moment they set foot in Syria and advanced south,the IAF would probably rush to bomb the convoys and fire ballistic missiles at big formations. In the air,it would be a UCAV war between Turkey and Israel.

 

[hyperman]

Yes on paper. Could it defeat the Israelis right now? I don't think so. Because they would be protecting their area and also get support from their Air Force.

Foinikas do read, or do you automatically just say things?

"When you define wars, you need to define goals of wars, they aren't abstract things. b/c depending on the goal, it tells you what a win is or a loss is. If you don't have that defined, then the whole idea of war is moot."

define the war and its objectives.

 

[Foinikas]

Also, for that scenario to work, Israel have a VERY SMALL window.

Yeah and they know they have to do something.

 

[Foinikas]

Foinikas do read, or do you automatically just say things?

"When you define wars, you need to define goals of wars, they aren't abstract things. b/c depending on the goal, it tells you what a win is or a loss is. If you don't have that defined, then the whole idea of war is moot."

define the war and its objectives.

For the Turks it could be to try and "punish" Israel for whatever reason(Palestinians,hindering Turkish ambitions in Syria,threatening Turkey etc.)

If Israelis started it first,they would probably strike fast and hard at most of the Turkish fleet and harbors,shipyards,Air Force bases and other military installations and infastracture. Even if they can't hit all of them up to Western Turkey,Thrace,Marmara,Black Sea,I guess they would be sufficient to destroy everything in East Mediterranean and central and southeast Turkey

 

[hyperman]

If Israelis started it first,they would probably strike fast and hard at most of the Turkish fleet and harbors,shipyards,Air Force bases and other military installations and infastracture. Even if they can't hit all of them up to Western Turkey,Thrace,Marmara,Black Sea,I guess they would be sufficient to destroy everything in East Mediterranean and central and southeast Turkey

And you don't think Turkey is able to launch an ambush attack that sinks and destorys their small fleet of corvettes and missile boats?

You cook up strange scenarios. Oh they can destroy ever Turkish assent in the the Mediterranean, but somehow Turkey can't do the same?

Btw, these aren't war goals, you have to define war goals, is Turkey fighting a defensive war? An Offensive war? If its an offensive war, whats the objective? some sort of D-Day type amphibious assault invasion? Or is it operations to destroy specific assets? some things are realistic possibilities, others are not realistic possibilities, but I have mentioned that in the past.

you are just speaking of things abstractly.

 

[MMM-E]

If Israel gets full support from USA in money,ammunition,spare parts,weapons,you'd be at a loss.

We are not talking about if
little Israel is nothing without USA and Israelis says that we are not ready to fight Turkiye

I'm telling you realistically,right now,the Israelis have a pretty good Navy defensively.

Nahhhhh .. Israeli Navy is full of shit

Israeli SAAR-6 Corvettes air defense missiles would run out within hours in a war with the Turkish Armed Forces

4 SAAR-MAAR-TAAR-6 Corvettes armed with total of 288 SAMs
Do you think regional super power Turkiye is a weak Country like Greece with 30 EXOCET Missiles ?

Turkiye has thousands of HARPOON , SLAM-ER , HARM , ATMACA , SOM . CAKIR , KUZGUN , TOLUN-IIR , IHA-230 , KGK-82 , KEMANKES , EREN , ALPAGUT , SUPER SIMSEK Missiles and guided munitions to turn 4 SAAR-6 Corvettes into scrap of metal in hours

also unmanned kamikaze Vessels

and Turkiye has now its own Ballistic Missiles to hit Israeli cities

Israel can not stop even SOM stealth Cruise Missiles which will fly at altitude of 3 m in the Eastern Mediterranean to avoid being caught on Radars

Israeli cities HAIFA and TELAVİV located at sea level and along the coastline


Israel is a small country to be targeted so easly