LeGenD
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
American firepower in the Middle East was visible to all in Syria and Iraq where the US aimed to rollback the ISIL movement (Operation Inherent Resolve), and in Iran where the US aimed to cripple the Iranian nuclear infrastructure (Operation Midnight Hammer). However, the Middle East landscape remains unstable as different political forces in the region vie for power and control and have a conflict of interest.I have been following blogspace today over this development. There is certainly much joy in the Pakistani analysts/blogspace over this development and no joy in India over this; even a Godi Media anchor presented this as a news without passing too many judgement or tried to cope hard.
But the economic consequence for India is present in several blogs. What should concern India a lot is that the Saudis along with other rich Arab countries, by merely starting to replace Indian expats in the Middle East with non-Indians, would be a major damage to the Indian economy. Indians are not some super smart professionals. You throw a 1.5 billion darts on a dart board then some will certainly stick. But there are many countries in the world who are poor and with equally decent workforce and they would gladly replace Indians.
In short, India is in a very difficult situation after this accord between Pakistan and KSA. And the accord is real, with major implications for several countries. If India uses another excuse to attack Pakistan then it may even find a President Trump breathing fire on India. Who know what happened when General Asim Munir met Trump? Mr. Munir only took the ISI Chief along to keep things very secret and the Americans too are quiet about that meeting--maybe Trump knows and even approves Pakistan taking over as a security guarantor in the Middle East while America can finally focus on the Pacific Ocean? The American firepower in the Middle East is no long as credible as it was just 2-3 years ago, and neither are the American guarantees to provide the security.
I am all for improving Saudi-Pak bilateral relations. The KSA can play a role in improving Pakistan's economy while Pakistan can play a role in improving Saudi defenses. The KSA and Pakistan can explore joint weapon development. The RSAF and the PAF can also work together to protect Saudi airspace. However, I am not convinced that Pakistan can live up to Saudi security expectations in all its forms. Pakistani forces are not without limitations. Dozens of Pak troops lost their lives in a single battle in Somalia. The odds were much greater in Yemen and Pakistan kept its distance from the Saudi-Houthi war not long ago. What will Pakistan do if the KSA decides to fight another war in the region? What can Pakistan do about Israel in the Middle East? What will the KSA do in the event of Indo-Pak war? Pakistan have no say in Israeli affairs. The US is in a much better position to reduce Israel-GCC tensions. The KSA wants to improve bilateral relations with India as well. Pakistan taking over as a security guarantor in the Middle East sounds "very ambitious" to me.





