FuturePAF
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Trump maybe on board with what Pakistan is doing, within a few limits, because there is also something else he wants.I have been following blogspace today over this development. There is certainly much joy in the Pakistani analysts/blogspace over this development and no joy in India over this; even a Godi Media anchor presented this as a news without passing too many judgement or tried to cope hard.
But the economic consequence for India is present in several blogs. What should concern India a lot is that the Saudis along with other rich Arab countries, by merely starting to replace Indian expats in the Middle East with non-Indians, would be a major damage to the Indian economy. Indians are not some super smart professionals. You throw a 1.5 billion darts on a dart board then some will certainly stick. But there are many countries in the world who are poor and with equally decent workforce and they would gladly replace Indians.
In short, India is in a very difficult situation after this accord between Pakistan and KSA. And the accord is real, with major implications for several countries. If India uses another excuse to attack Pakistan then it may even find a President Trump breathing fire on India. Who know what happened when General Asim Munir met Trump? Mr. Munir only took the ISI Chief along to keep things very secret and the Americans too are quiet about that meeting--maybe Trump knows and even approves Pakistan taking over as a security guarantor in the Middle East while America can finally focus on the Pacific Ocean? The American firepower in the Middle East is no long as credible as it was just 2-3 years ago, and neither are the American guarantees to provide the security.
The other news that broke today was Trump’s desire to get back into Bagram, mine Afghan minerals, re-establish diplomatic ties, and set up a counter Daesh node, as well as monitor China, possibly with US troops/contractor/agency guys on the ground.
The route into Afghanistan would ostensibly be through Pakistan, but this time less likely to be a staging ground for Indian “consulates”, hopefully, and therefore more on Pakistani terms. A new great game maybe a foot, for Afghanistan, the Saudis, the US, the Chinese, the Russians, and the Pakistanis.
We also have to remember Trump is pissed at Putin, so maneuvering into Central Asia, which Putin still sees as part of “Russki Mir”, could send him the right signal from Trump.
This may also be why the US gave a wavier to Chahbahar for Indian use; pressure on Pakistan and a backdoor to Afghanistan.
So while it looks like “happy days are here again” (as the old adage says), Pakistan would be smart to absolutely go for broke and buildup as much conventional (and non-conventional) capability as it can, especially the long range rocket force, before Trump leaves office. Pakistan has a three year window, to really pour it all into getting investments and catching up in the defense industry. Look at the North Koreans in 2017 and by 2020, they had world class capabilities. It’s not about displaying these capabilities but if India is going to buildup these capabilities (Agni 6 is planned to have a 12,000 km range) to pressure the rest of the world, Pakistan should have parity in these capabilities as well. 12,000 km is specifically the minimum to put Pakistan in that world class capability. (A missile like this can be quietly built, and even smaller than the Shaheen 2 which is 17.2 meters long and 1.4 meters in diameter. Pakistan build a slightly bigger missile than the American SICBM, which was only 14 meters long and 1.17 meters in diameter, but had an 11,300 km range. Also, a 4000 km missile within the 12 meter length and 1 meter diameter of the Shaheen 1 dimensions would also improve deterrence quietly; through ambiguity.)
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